Uganda vs Nigeria Prediction & Betting Tips - AFCON
Africa - AFCON
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in AFCON Predictions
It's going to be a tricky game for anyone betting on the Round 3 game between Nigeria and Uganda. The Super Eagles have already qualified for the knockout stage after being the only team to win two games in Group C. With only one point needed to secure the very top spot, can we expect a win for Nigeria? Let's get into our match prediction.
The Super Eagles have started their AFCON campaign on a high note after beating Tanzania (2-1) and Tunisia. Nigeria will now march into the knockouts to bring back home their first AFCON title since 2013 after failing to do so in the last final against Ivory Coast. Their next test is Uganda in Round 3, and all the Super Eagles need here is a draw to take a favourable first-place finish.
However, Uganda is determined to upset Nigeria with qualification on the line for The Cranes. Uganda sits in last place but is level on points (1) with Tanzania in third place. Mathematically, Uganda can still finish second if Tunisia and Tanzania draw. But with the goal difference in play, that would require a large win over Nigeria.
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The Best Betting Odds for Uganda v Nigeria Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.6 | 3 | 2.2 |
|
|
3.4 | 3.1 | 2.25 |
|
|
3.25 | 3 | 2.25 |
|
|
3.4 | 3.05 | 2.28 |
|
|
3.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Uganda and Nigeria?
Our prediction for the Uganda vs Nigeria match is: Nigeria wins or draws & over 1.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 30/12/2025 between Uganda and Nigeria in AFCON :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 37.19% for a win of Uganda against Nigeria with odds of 3.6 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Uganda vs Nigeria is 25.52% with odds of 3.25 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 37.29% chance ⭐ for a win of Nigeria vs Uganda with odds of 2.3 at 888Starz.
Uganda vs Nigeria Form
Uganda and Nigeria's standings in the AFCON
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
|
4
|
1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 |
Uganda and Nigeria Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Dec 2025 - AFCON
23 Dec 2025 - AFCON
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Dec 2025 - AFCON
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
23 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
11 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
4 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Dec 2025 - AFCON
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Oct 2025 - World Cup
18 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
8 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Dec 2025 - AFCON
23 Dec 2025 - AFCON
16 Dec 2025 - International Friendlies
16 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Dec 2025 - AFCON
23 Dec 2025 - AFCON
16 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
6 Sept 2025 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Dec 2025 - International Friendlies
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
12 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
5 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
Uganda - Nigeria: Form Analysis
Nigeria's form is unquestionable at the moment. They just netted three against Tunisia, who set a record as the first team to qualify for the World Cup without conceding a goal.
Before this tournament, Nigeria lost a negligible friendly game to Egypt (2-1). However, Chelle’s men are still feeling the pain from the WC qualification final defeat to DR Congo on penalties.
Still, the Super Eagles senior team is unbeaten in 11 of their last 12 competitive games, with 9 wins.
In contrast, Uganda needs to lock in after their performances have left them on the verge of elimination. The 3-1 opening day loss to Tunisia and their latest 1-1 draw against Tanzania placed The Cranes in last position.
In truth, Uganda were fairly decent in their run-up to the 2025 AFCON for a team sitting at 85th in the FIFA rankings. Having won six of ten games and losing four, The Cranes managed a second-place finish in their WC group with Algeria.
And in their latest senior team games alone, Uganda had won six of eight prior to this tournament. They need to dig deep and regain that form if they hope to remain in Morocco.
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Uganda vs Nigeria last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 2
Uganda & Nigeria Squad Analysis
Although several players have performed for the Super Eagles in the 2025 AFCON, Ademola Lookman has been Nigeria’s best player so far.
The Atlanta man scored the winner against Tanzania in the opening game, and then went on to contribute to all three goals in the Super Eagles' win over Tanzania.
Lookman now has 4 goal contributions in the 2025 AFCON, with the next highest being 2 G/A.
Other star players have been Iwobi and Ndidi. Iwobi assisted Nigeria’s only two goals in the crucial opener. Meanwhile, Ndidi has recorded the second-most tackles (7) and ranks 10th in SofaScore’s AFCON player rankings.
As for Uganda, its players have really dropped noteworthy performances, which is understandable considering The Cranes' form so far. But ironically, Uganda’s joint highest goalscorer is Uche Ikpeazu, a player with Nigerian heritage.
Uche scored the equalizer against Tanzania in the last game, effectively keeping Uganda's tournament hopes alive. Ikpeazu didn't play the first game and featured only 13 minutes in the second. However, Uganda might start him against his Father's nation if they hope to beat Nigeria.
Most goals and assists
Uganda
Nigeria
U. Ikpeazu
(1 Goals)
,
D. Omedi
(1 Goals)
A. Lookman
(2 Goals)
D. Omedi
(1 Assists)
A. Lookman
(2 Assists)
,
A. Iwobi
(2 Assists)
Uganda and Nigeria Stats in AFCON
Uganda - Nigeria Key Points
- Nigeria has scored 5 goals in two games in this tournament.
- Nigeria won their two tournament games, beating Tanzania and Tunisia.
- Nigeria's senior team has scored in 15 straight games.
- In those 15 games, Nigeria went undefeated in 13, while 14 games featured over 1.5 goals.
- Uganda’s goals in both tournament games have seen the Cranes score in eight of their last nine games.
- Also, eight of Uganda’s last nine games featured over 1.5 goals.
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Our Uganda vs Nigeria Prediction
A qualified Nigeria might not be too desperate for a win, but we still don't see them losing this game. Because Tunisia can still finish in first place based on goal difference, Nigeria will fight for that crucial point (or all three) that guarantees them 1st position.
The goals might already be guaranteed on the Super Eagles' end, as the last edition's finalists have now scored in 15 straight games. Uganda has also been somewhat impressive with goals in eight of their last nine games. Hence, our Nigeria vs Uganda prediction is Nigeria wins or draws & over 1.5 goals.
Uganda vs Nigeria - Other Interesting Predictions
Nigeria wins either half
Get up to €100 to bet on the Uganda vs. Nigeria game
You can get yourself up to €150 in matched bets for the battle between Uganda and Nigeria when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on AFCON!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
