Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce Istanbul Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Champions League Predictions
Sturm Graz will have to do all the running to overturn a 2-0 deficit against Fenerbahce on Tuesday in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League (UCL) third qualifying round. This second leg match between the ‘Blacks’ and the ‘Yellow Canaries’ at Merkur Arena in Graz is likely to go per the home team’s script, and our prediction is a home win or draw.
The winner of this two-legged tie will advance to the playoff round to play Sparta Prague or Lyon. The losers will be transferred to the league phase of the UEFA Europa League.
Two goals in the first half saw Sturm lose 2-0 in the first leg, although they responded with a 2-0 away win at the weekend in the Austrian Bundesliga. Sturm have six wins from their last eight European games at home (D1, L1), although only one of those victories was by more than a single-goal margin – the 4-0 victory in the previous qualifying round against Heart of Midlothian.
Fenerbahce are unbeaten in competitive action this season (W2, D1), with both their wins coming in the UCL with a clean sheet. The visitors can afford a draw or even lose by a single-goal margin, and their recent away run in Europe suggests they can progress, as the ‘Yellow Canaries’ are unbeaten in their last five European trips (W2, D3).
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Sturm Graz v Fenerbahce Istanbul Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
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3.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
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3.95 | 3.91 | 1.93 |
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3.84 | 3.8 | 1.89 |
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3.84 | 3.8 | 1.89 |
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3.84 | 3.8 | 1.89 |
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What is the prediction for the football match between Sturm Graz and Fenerbahce Istanbul?
Our prediction for the Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce Istanbul match is: Sturm Graz or draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/08/2026 between Sturm Graz and Fenerbahce Istanbul in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 36.51% for a win of Sturm Graz against Fenerbahce Istanbul with odds of 4 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce Istanbul is 21.63% with odds of 3.91 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 41.85% chance ⭐ for a win of Fenerbahce Istanbul vs Sturm Graz with odds of 1.95 at Betsson.
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce Istanbul Form
Sturm Graz and Fenerbahce Istanbul Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Aug 2026 - Austrian Bundesliga
5 Aug 2026 - Champions League
1 Aug 2026 - Austrian Bundesliga
28 Jul 2026 - Champions League
24 Jul 2026 - ÖFB Cup
21 Jul 2026 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Jul 2026 - Champions League
15 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
30 Jun 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
26 Jun 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Aug 2026 - Austrian Bundesliga
5 Aug 2026 - Champions League
1 Aug 2026 - Austrian Bundesliga
28 Jul 2026 - Champions League
24 Jul 2026 - ÖFB Cup
10 May 2026 - Austrian Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Aug 2026 - Champions League
29 Jul 2026 - Champions League
21 Jul 2026 - Champions League
14 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
11 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Aug 2026 - Champions League
21 Jul 2026 - Champions League
11 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
17 May 2026 - Super Lig
2 May 2026 - Super Lig
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Jul 2026 - Champions League
14 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
9 May 2026 - Super Lig
26 Apr 2026 - Super Lig
21 Apr 2026 - Turkiye Kupasi
11 Apr 2026 - Super Lig
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce Istanbul Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
50 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
5 Aug 2026 - Champions League
3 Aug 2017 - Europa League
Sturm Graz and Fenerbahce Istanbul Stats in Champions League
Sturm Graz - Fenerbahce Istanbul Key Points
- Sturm are unbeaten in seven of their last eight home matches in Europe (W6, D1).
- Sturm are also undefeated in their last ten home competitive matches (W6, D4).
- Fenerbahce have failed to win six of their last eight away matches in Europe.
- Fenerbahce have failed to win four of their last six away competitive matches.
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Our Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce Istanbul Prediction
Fenerbahce did enough to edge the first leg 2-0, although that doesn’t rule Sturm out of this tie. The first goal in this fixture could be crucial as Fenerbahce will look to keep the hosts at bay and extend their progression. Sturm have been a stubborn team to face at home in Europe, and they will fancy their chances of repeating that against the visiting Turks.
Recent home form also suggests Sturm are likely to remain unbeaten, so our Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce Istanbul prediction is Sturm Graz or draw.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
