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Stoke vs Derby County Prediction & Betting Tips - Championship

England - Championship

Stoke
09/08/2025 09:00
Derby County

Prediction :

 

Derby County wins the match

 
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 by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Championship Predictions

Two teams that finished last season perilously close to the relegation zone will clash on matchday one of the 2025-26 Championship campaign as Stoke welcome Derby County on Saturday. This match at Bet365 Stadium between the Potters and the Rams comes with our prediction of an away win.

Both Stoke and Derby finished in the bottom seven positions last year, as Stoke ended up 18th with 51 points and only two points above the relegation zone. Derby were one point and one position worse than their current hosts.

Stoke ended last season with just one point from their last three games and could have been relegated if things had gone against them in other fixtures. Their summer preparations haven’t been great, either, worrying the fans about their current campaign.

The Potters lost two and drew one of their five friendlies, although wins against Crewe and Burnley raise a flicker of hope.

Derby may have finished below Stoke last season, but they are a different team under John Eustace. They finished with six wins and just two defeats out of their final 11 games of the league campaign.

Recent form in the friendlies is a positive sign too, as the Rams won four of their final five preparatory games.

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The Best Betting Odds for Stoke v Derby County Match

Bookmaker 1 X 2 Bonus up to
Bet365
2.3 3.2 3.2
Betfred
2.38 3.1 3.4
William Hill
2.25 3.1 3.25
Betway
2.3 3.1 3.1
Ladbrokes
2.15 3.3 3.4
Check all Stoke vs Derby County odds
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What is the prediction for the football match between Stoke and Derby County?

Our prediction for the Stoke vs Derby County match is: Derby County wins the match.

Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 09/08/2025 between Stoke and Derby County in Championship :

  • The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 33.66% for a win of Stoke against Derby County with odds of 2.38 at Betfred.
  • The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Stoke vs Derby County is 28.34% with odds of 3.3 at Ladbrokes.
  • Our prediction model gives a 38% chance ⭐ for a win of Derby County vs Stoke with odds of 3.45 at Unibet.

Stoke vs Derby County Form

Stoke and Derby County Last Matches

Stoke
Stoke Last matches
L D L W D W
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2 Total goals
50% BTTS
0.83 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Stoke
1 :  0
Burnley

26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Stoke
1 :  1
Wolves

23 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Crewe Alexandra
1 :  2
Stoke

16 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Brighton
3 :  1
Stoke

3 May 2025 - Championship

Derby County
0 :  0
Stoke

25 Apr 2025 - Championship

Stoke
0 :  2
Sheffield United
W D W L D W
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.17 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.33 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
17% Over 2.5
83% Under 2.5

2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Stoke
1 :  0
Burnley

26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Stoke
1 :  1
Wolves

25 Apr 2025 - Championship

Stoke
0 :  2
Sheffield United

18 Apr 2025 - Championship

Stoke
2 :  0
Sheffield Wednesday

8 Apr 2025 - Championship

Stoke
1 :  1
Luton Town

29 Mar 2025 - Championship

Stoke
3 :  1
QPR
D W L D L W
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
50% BTTS
0.83 Goals scored
1.83 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

23 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Crewe Alexandra
1 :  2
Stoke

16 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Brighton
3 :  1
Stoke

3 May 2025 - Championship

Derby County
0 :  0
Stoke

21 Apr 2025 - Championship

Leeds
6 :  0
Stoke

12 Apr 2025 - Championship

Cardiff
0 :  1
Stoke

5 Apr 2025 - Championship

Preston North End
1 :  1
Stoke
Derby County
Derby County Last matches
D W W L W W
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.5 Total goals
83% BTTS
2.17 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Derby County
2 :  0
Atromitos Athinon

29 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Solihull Moors
2 :  4
Derby County

26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Burton Albion
2 :  1
Derby County

22 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Walsall
2 :  3
Derby County

18 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Salzburg
1 :  2
Derby County

12 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Matlock Town
1 :  1
Derby County
W W D L D W
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.17 Total goals
0% BTTS
1 Goals scored
0.17 Goals conceded
0% Over 2.5
100% Under 2.5

2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Derby County
2 :  0
Atromitos Athinon

3 May 2025 - Championship

Derby County
0 :  0
Stoke

18 Apr 2025 - Championship

Derby County
0 :  1
Luton Town

8 Apr 2025 - Championship

Derby County
0 :  0
Burnley

2 Apr 2025 - Championship

Derby County
2 :  0
Preston North End

11 Mar 2025 - Championship

Derby County
2 :  0
Coventry City
W D W W L W
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
83% BTTS
2 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

29 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Solihull Moors
2 :  4
Derby County

26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Burton Albion
2 :  1
Derby County

22 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Walsall
2 :  3
Derby County

18 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Salzburg
1 :  2
Derby County

12 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Matlock Town
1 :  1
Derby County

26 Apr 2025 - Championship

Hull
0 :  1
Derby County

Stoke vs Derby County Stats: Head to Head (H2H)

Stoke

20 %

Draw

40 %

Derby County

40 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

2
Total goals
40%
BTTS
0.6
Goals scored (home team)
1.4
Goals scored (away team)
60%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5

3 May 2025 - Championship

Derby County
0 :  0
Stoke

2 Nov 2024 - Championship

Stoke
2 :  1
Derby County

30 Dec 2021 - Championship

Stoke
1 :  2
Derby County

31 Jan 2020 - Championship

Derby County
4 :  0
Stoke

13 Mar 2019 - Championship

Derby County
0 :  0
Stoke
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Stoke vs Derby County last Lineups

Stoke

Formation : 3 - 5 - 2

1
V. Johansson
16
B. Wilmot
26
A. Phillips
23
B. Gibson
2
L. Gooch
6
W. Burger
8
L. Baker
18
B. Lawal
10
B. Jun-Ho
9
A. Al Hamadi
20
S. Gallagher
18
M. Harness
10
J. Yates
3
C. Forsyth
16
L. Thompson
32
E. Adams
28
H. Armstrong
2
K. Wilson
25
M. Clarke
12
N. Phillips
6
S. Langas
31
J. Vickers

Formation : 3 - 5 - 2

Derby County

Stoke - Derby County Key Points

  1. Stoke lost two and drew one of their final three games of last year’s league campaign.
  2. Stoke lost two of their last four home games, winning just once, including the friendlies.
  3. Stoke lost four of their last eight matches including friendlies.
  4. Derby won six of their final 11 matches of last year’s league campaign, losing only two.
  5. Derby won four of their last five friendlies, losing only once.
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Our Stoke vs Derby County Prediction

Going by where they ended last season, Stoke and Derby have a lot of work to do. However, Derby found their mojo after John Eustace took charge towards the far end of the season. Six wins out of the last 11 league games isn’t sensational form, but with only two defeats in that run, they set the template for stubborn play. Stoke, on the other hand, finished their season poorly.

That could continue here, and a surprise could be in store, as our Stoke vs Derby County prediction is Derby County wins the match.

Prediction :

 

Derby County wins the match

 
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Stoke vs Derby County Prediction
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