Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
A tough fixture awaits St Pauli as they host Borussia Dortmund on matchday one of the 2025-26 Bundesliga campaign. This match on Saturday at Millerntor-Stadion between the Kiezkicker and the visiting Die Borussen comes with our prediction of an away win.
Last season saw St Pauli finish 14th in the league with 32 points and three points above the relegation zone. Dortmund finished with 57 points; that was enough to see them finish fourth and qualify them for the league phase of the Champions League.
After avoiding relegation in their first campaign after a 13-year absence from top-flight, St Pauli now need to build on that and avoid trouble. Their first competitive game didn’t go to plan, though, as they needed penalties to go past minnows Norderstedt in the DFB Pokal.
That game made it a fourth instance in their last five competitive games that St Pauli failed to find the back of the net.
Dortmund had a similar tough fixture in the cup competition, leaving it late in a 1-0 away win over RW Essen in the DFB Pokal last week. That result marked their sixth win over their last eight games, including friendlies.
BVB didn’t have a great transfer window but will look back at history with fondness, as they won their opening match for ten campaigns in a row.
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The Best Betting Odds for St. Pauli v Borussia Dortmund Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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4.5 | 4 | 1.73 |
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4.6 | 3.75 | 1.73 |
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|
4.5 | 3.6 | 1.73 |
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|
4.5 | 3.75 | 1.75 |
|
|
4.4 | 3.9 | 1.73 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund?
Our prediction for the St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund match is: Borussia Dortmund wins the match.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 23/08/2025 between St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 25.68% for a win of St. Pauli against Borussia Dortmund with odds of 4.94 at 22bet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund is 23.17% with odds of 4.08 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 51.15% chance ⭐ for a win of Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli with odds of 1.76 at 22bet.
St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund Form
St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Aug 2025 - DFB Pokal
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
20 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
15 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
17 May 2025 - Bundesliga
3 May 2025 - Bundesliga
20 Apr 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Apr 2025 - Bundesliga
14 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Aug 2025 - DFB Pokal
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
15 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
12 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Aug 2025 - DFB Pokal
10 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
30 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
5 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
2 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
25 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
17 May 2025 - Bundesliga
3 May 2025 - Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Aug 2025 - DFB Pokal
30 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
5 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
21 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
17 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
11 May 2025 - Bundesliga
St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
0 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
1 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
18 Oct 2024 - Bundesliga
18 Jan 2022 - DFB Pokal
Missing players
K. Mets
MidfielderR. Jones
J. Irvine
N. Schlotterbeck
N. Sule
J. Ryerson
Y. Couto
MidfielderE. Can
ForwardJ. Duranville
Most goals and assists
St. Pauli
Borussia Dortmund
St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund Key Points
- St. Pauli lost two of their recent three games in the Bundesliga.
- St. Pauli failed to score in four of their last five competitive matches.
- Dortmund won both their league matches against St. Pauli last season.
- Dortmund won three of their last four matches in all competitions including friendlies.
- Dortmund have won their opening match in a Bundesliga campaign for the last ten seasons.
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Our St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
It was a season of two halves from Dortmund last year, as the arrival of Niko Kovac helped them finish fourth after staying outside the top ten for many weeks. They haven’t been active in the transfer market during the off-season, but this fixture shouldn’t worry them too much. St Pauli have traditionally struggled against Dortmund, including losing both games last season. They have also struggled in the transfer market ahead of a tough first match.
The visitors have a strong edge, and our St Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund prediction is Borussia Dortmund wins the match.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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