Leipzig vs Bayern Munich Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
It’s a chance for Leipzig to dent Bayern Munich’s impressive run in the Bundesliga when the teams meet on matchday 18 on Saturday. This match in Leipzig between the third-placed Red Bulls and the first-placed Bavarians comes with our prediction of an away win and over 3.5 goals.
Leipzig’s 32 points from 16 matches (W10, D2, L4) put them four points behind second. Bayern’s 47 points from 17 matches (W15, D2) give them an 11-point advantage over their nearest challengers.
Leipzig defeated Freiburg 2-0 at home on Wednesday to halt a two-game losing run in the league. Both those defeats came by a 3-1 scoreline against Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen.
The hosts have struggled for consistency in recent weeks, winning only three of their last seven league games (D1, L3). It could change at this venue, as Leipzig have seven wins from their eight home league games this season.
Bayern are coming off a 3-1 away win over Koln in the midweek, which was their seventh win in eight competitive games (D1). The Bavarians dropped points only twice all season in the Bundesliga while being the top scorers in the division by a mile.
Even their away record has been impeccable, with Bayern winning seven of their eight league trips this season, scoring 3+ goals in all seven victories.
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Leipzig v Bayern Munich Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.3 | 4.5 | 1.73 |
|
|
4.34 | 4.34 | 1.69 |
|
|
4.74 | 4.54 | 1.61 |
|
|
4 | 4.33 | 1.73 |
|
|
4.6 | 4.5 | 1.61 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Leipzig and Bayern Munich?
Our prediction for the Leipzig vs Bayern Munich match is: Bayern Munich wins and over 3.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 17/01/2026 between Leipzig and Bayern Munich in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 35.25% for a win of Leipzig against Bayern Munich with odds of 4.93 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Leipzig vs Bayern Munich is 12.7% with odds of 4.9 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 52.05% chance ⭐ for a win of Bayern Munich vs Leipzig with odds of 1.73 at Stake.
Leipzig - Bayern Munich Prediction and Best Odds:
| Leipzig Bayern Munich Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich wins | 52.05% | 1.73 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82.4% | |
| Both Team To Score | 57.92% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Bayern Munich/Bayern Munich | 21.65% | 2.6 at Bet365 |
Leipzig vs Bayern Munich Form
Leipzig and Bayern Munich's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
89 | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | +86 |
|
3
|
65 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | +19 |
Leipzig and Bayern Munich Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
12 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
28 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
23 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
8 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
25 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
6 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
14 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
29 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
22 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
6 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
3 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
Leipzig vs Bayern Munich Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
22 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
3 May 2025 - Bundesliga
20 Dec 2024 - Bundesliga
24 Feb 2024 - Bundesliga
30 Sept 2023 - Bundesliga
12 Aug 2023 - German Super Cup
Leipzig against Bayern Munich Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
M. Vandevoordt
DefenderE. Bitshiabu
K. Nedeljkovic
B. Henrichs
M. Finkgrafe
MidfielderE. Banzuzi
A. Maksimovic
C. Harder
T. Gomis
J. Urbig
DefenderA. Davies
J. Kimmich
R. Guerreiro
K. Min-jae
J. Musiala
F. Chavez
D. Daiber
ForwardM. Olise
Missing players
V. Gebel
ForwardJ. Bakayoko
J. Stanisic
S. Boey
MidfielderK. Laimer
ForwardN. Jackson
Most goals and assists
Leipzig
Bayern Munich
C. Baumgartner
(13 Goals)
H. Kane
(36 Goals)
D. Raum
(7 Assists)
, 
Y. Diomande
(7 Assists)
M. Olise
(20 Assists)
Leipzig - Bayern Munich Key Points
- Bayern scored 3.88 goals per game in the league this season.
- Leipzig scored 2.0 goals per game in the league this season.
- Bayern won seven of their last eight away league games, five of which saw over 3.5 goals scored.
- Leipzig lost two of their last three Bundesliga matches, each fixture producing four goals.
- Bayern won three of their last four matches against Leipzig.
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Our Leipzig vs Bayern Munich Prediction
All eyes in Germany will be on Leipzig this weekend, as every side will hope that they can somehow stop Bayern Munich. The runaway leaders have an 11-point lead over Dortmund ahead of this round, and their impressive scoring tally of 66 goals underlines their biggest threat. Leipzig lost two of their recent three games, both by a 3-1 scoreline. While their record at home has been impressive this season, will that be enough to guarantee success?
This match could continue Bayern’s run, and our Leipzig vs Bayern Munich prediction is Bayern Munich wins and over 3.5.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Leipzig Bayern Munich
| Leipzig vs Bayern Munich | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leipzig wins | 5.63 | 4.93 | -12.4% |
| Draw | 5.03 | 4.9 | -2.6% |
| Bayern Munich wins | 1.57 | 1.73 | +10.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Bayern Munich is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 10.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 63.7% and is now 57.8% (-5.9%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
