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by Sridhar Bhamidi in World Cup Predictions
The fate of three teams vying for the top two spots in Group C will come down to matchday ten results as South Africa host Rwanda. This 2026 FIFA World Cup African qualification match will be played on Tuesday at the Mbombela Stadium with a lot at stake not just for the hosting 'Bafana Bafana' but also for Benin and Nigeria, who play each other at the same time in another fixture. This match, though, comes with our prediction of under 2.5 goals.
South Africa are second going into the final matchday, but their fate is not in their hands. They can finish anywhere in the top three spots, so the home fans will also be worried about what's happening in the other game in Nigeria. If only they hadn't fielded an ineligible player and lost 3-0 (awarded) to Lesotho earlier in the campaign!
Rwanda have no context left for this game, as they can't finish higher than third and are already mathematically eliminated. That said, they can play spoilsport and frustrate their hosts, having already won the reverse fixture 2-0. What's in store for this blockbuster final matchday? Read more to find our analysis, team news, and our match predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for South Africa v Rwanda Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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1.22 | 5.25 | 19 |
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1.22 | 5 | 15 |
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1.22 | 4.6 | 13 |
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1.17 | 5.5 | 15 |
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1.15 | 4.8 | 14 |
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What is the prediction for the football match between South Africa and Rwanda?
Our prediction for the South Africa vs Rwanda match is: under 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/10/2025 between South Africa and Rwanda in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 55.48% for a win of South Africa against Rwanda with odds of 1.25 at Betwinner.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between South Africa vs Rwanda is 23.48% with odds of 5.5 at Unibet.
- Our prediction model gives a 21.04% chance ⭐ for a win of Rwanda vs South Africa with odds of 19 at Bet365.
South Africa vs Rwanda Form
South Africa and Rwanda's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
15 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
|
4
|
11 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 |
South Africa and Rwanda Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sep 2025 - World Cup
5 Sep 2025 - World Cup
18 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
15 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
11 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sep 2025 - World Cup
18 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
11 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
13 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
10 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
7 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
5 Sep 2025 - World Cup
15 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
8 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
15 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sep 2025 - World Cup
6 Sep 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
5 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
14 Nov 2024 - AFCON
15 Oct 2024 - AFCON
10 Sep 2024 - AFCON
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sep 2025 - World Cup
6 Sep 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
5 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2024 - AFCON
11 Oct 2024 - AFCON
South Africa vs Rwanda Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
21 Nov 2023 - World Cup
South Africa - Rwanda: Form Analysis
South Africa (15 points, W4 D3 L2) starts this match two points behind leaders Benin but one point above Nigeria. They need a win to stay in the top two spots and at least grab a place in the second round.
Recent form isn't encouraging for the 'Bafana Bafana', who have drawn four and won just once in their five recent matches. That included consecutive draws in their last two qualifiers, against Zimbabwe (0-0) and Nigeria (1-1).
South Africa drew three of their last four home matches!
Rwanda are already mathematically eliminated from the qualification race, as they start this round four points behind (11 points, W3 D2 L4) their hosts. They can at best finish third, while dropping to fifth is also a possibility.
The visitors won the reverse fixture back in November 2023 by a 2-0 scoreline. Their recent form is dire, though, as Rwanda lost four of their five recent games (W1, L4), including a 1-0 home loss to Benis last week.
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South Africa & Rwanda Squad Analysis
South Africa have a few holes to plug at the back, as Mbekezeli Mbokazi is suspended after receiving a red card against Zimbabwe. Siyabonga Ngezana was already left out of the squad.
Mohau Nkota was hauled off at half-time against Zimbabwe, and it remains to be seen if he is replaced by Thapelo Morena on the right wing. Lyle Foster limped off at half-time in their last match but is likely to spearhead the attack again in their 4-2-3-1 formation.
Foster and Morena have two goals each for South Africa in the qualifiers.
Rwanda are likely to stick to their usual 4-1-4-1 formation with Fiacre Ntwari of Kaizer Chiefs set to start as the goalkeeper. Their goal threat comes from the wings, with Jojea Kwizera and Gilbert Mugisha manning the two flanks. The duo scored two goals each for Rwanda in this qualification campaign!
The visitors have no other injuries or suspension worries, which opens the door for forward Joy-Lance Mickels to be involved in the game at some point. The 31-year-old forward has been called up for the national team for the first time and could be rearing to go.
South Africa - Rwanda Key Points
- All nine matches of Rwanda in this qualification campaign produced under 2.5 goals.
- Rwanda have scored only five goals, the joint-least in the group along with Zimbabwe.
- Five of South Africa’s last eight matches produced fewer than three goals.
- In five of South Africa’s last seven completed World Cup qualifiers, excluding the awarded match, two or fewer goals were scored.
- Eight of South Africa’s last 11 designated home matches produced under 2.5 goals.
- Rwanda’s last four designated away matches have seen fewer than three goals scored.
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Our South Africa vs Rwanda Prediction
There's so much at stake for South Africa, who knows that even a win here can't guarantee direct qualification, while even a loss could see them sneak to the second round. Rwanda have nothing to lose or gain but would look to end on a high, if not spoil the chances of a higher-ranked neighbor. The visitors have been low on goals, and that could be a challenge on this trip too.
This could be a tense game with low output, and our South Africa vs Rwanda prediction is under 2.5.
South Africa vs Rwanda - Other Interesting Predictions
South Africa to win 2-0
Apart from the permutations for qualifications, South Africa have an added incentive to win, as they were beaten 2-0 in the reverse fixture. The hosts are unlikely to drop their guard once again, although they have been all over the place in the qualifiers. South Africa are likely to target a win with a clean sheet. Back a 2-0 win for the home team.
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South Africa vs Rwanda match : Frequently asked questions
The South Africa vs Rwanda 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualification match will be shown live on SuperSport and SABC in South Africa.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our World Cup Qualification Livescore page!
Group C is perhaps the most exciting group of this campaign as we head into the last matchday. Three teams are eliminated (Rwanda, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe), while three are tussling for two spots (Benin, South Africa, and Nigeria).
Benin are chasing their debut qualification for the global event and will advance with a win over Nigeria. If Benin loses, South Africa can be through with a win. If Nigeria wins 2-1, then they will end up with an identical record with Benin, and the disciplinary record will determine which team finishes higher.
South Africa can overtake Benin for the top spot if they win against Rwanda here and Benin loses to Nigeria. They can also go through with a win and Benin draw, provided they win by two or more goals.
Nigeria need to win 1-0 or by a two-goal margin and pray that South Africa do not win to progress. No wonder then that this group is likely to be one of the most watched in this round in Africa!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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