Samsunspor vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction & Betting Tips - Conference League
Europe - Conference League
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Conference League Predictions
Two of the most prolific scoring teams of this season’s UEFA Conference League will be on view as Samsunspor host Rayo Vallecano in the round of 16 tie. This first-leg match between the ‘Red Lightning’ and the ‘Red Sashes’ on Thursday comes with our prediction of both teams scoring goals. The winner of this two-legged tie moves to the quarter-finals to face the winner of Celje vs AEK Athens.
There’s history to be made for the Turkish hosts, as they never made it to the quarter-finals of a major European competition. For Rayo, this is their chance to replicate their last-eight performance in the UEFA Cup in the 2000-01 campaign. This is the first time Samsunspor and Rayo are facing each other, but a chance to reach the quarter-finals should make this an interesting game.
Samsunspor have enjoyed home comforts in this competition, but will that continue here? Rayo have struggled on the road lately, but can they rise up to the occasion? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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Samsunspor v Rayo Vallecano Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.7 | 3.2 | 2.18 |
|
|
3.68 | 3.14 | 2.16 |
|
|
3.68 | 3.14 | 2.16 |
|
|
3.75 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
|
|
3.75 | 3.1 | 2.14 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Samsunspor and Rayo Vallecano?
Our prediction for the Samsunspor vs Rayo Vallecano match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/03/2026 between Samsunspor and Rayo Vallecano in Conference League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 41.35% for a win of Samsunspor against Rayo Vallecano with odds of 3.8 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Samsunspor vs Rayo Vallecano is 32.91% with odds of 3.25 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 25.73% chance ⭐ for a win of Rayo Vallecano vs Samsunspor with odds of 2.18 at Stake.
Samsunspor - Rayo Vallecano Prediction and Best Odds:
| Samsunspor Rayo Vallecano Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor wins | 41.35% | 3.8 at Shangrila |
| Under 2.5 | 51.04% | 2.03 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score: No | 59.52% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Samsunspor | 19.47% | 8.25 at LSbet |
Samsunspor vs Rayo Vallecano Form
Samsunspor and Rayo Vallecano Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2026 - Super Lig
5 Mar 2026 - Turkiye Kupasi
1 Mar 2026 - Super Lig
26 Feb 2026 - Conference League
22 Feb 2026 - Super Lig
19 Feb 2026 - Conference League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2026 - Super Lig
26 Feb 2026 - Conference League
7 Feb 2026 - Super Lig
3 Feb 2026 - Turkiye Kupasi
24 Jan 2026 - Super Lig
24 Dec 2025 - Turkiye Kupasi
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2026 - Super Lig
5 Mar 2026 - Turkiye Kupasi
22 Feb 2026 - Super Lig
19 Feb 2026 - Conference League
13 Feb 2026 - Super Lig
30 Jan 2026 - Super Lig
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
4 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
28 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
21 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
15 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
1 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
28 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
15 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
24 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
11 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
2 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
21 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
1 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
18 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
14 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
6 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
Samsunspor - Rayo Vallecano: Form Analysis
Samsunspor lost 3-2 away at Fenerbahce last weekend, which was their first defeat after an unbeaten run of five games (W3, D2). The ‘Red Lightning’ are a distant eighth in the Turkish league, which means they may have to look back at the league phase performance of the Conference League for confidence.
The Turks finished 12th (W3, D1, L2) in the league phase, with both losses coming on the last two matchdays. They bounced back in the knockout phase playoffs to win 5-0 on aggregate against Shkendija to reach this round with momentum.
Samsunspor scored 11 goals in their last four home Conference League games.
Rayo drew 1-1 away at Sevilla last weekend to remain unbeaten in five matches (W2, D3). The ‘Red Sashes’ are struggling in La Liga, remaining only six points above the relegation zone. Will that see them treat this competition as a distraction or a chance to express themselves?
The visitors have done well in the league phase, though, with three wins out of the last four matchdays (L1), earning a fifth spot. There’s still so much to improve on the road lately, as Rayo lost three and drew two of their last five away games.
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Samsunspor against Rayo Vallecano Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 1 - 4 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
I. Egribayat
E. Berat Toruz
DefenderS. Gonul
T. Borevkovic
E. Albak
Z. Yavru
T. Coulibaly
F. Atoen
E. Kilinc
C. Ndiaye
D. Cardenas
A. Molina
DefenderA. Espino
I. Balliu
N. Mendy
MidfielderP. Díaz
O. Valentin
G. Gumbau
O. Trejo
J. De Frutos
S. Camello
Missing players
D. Mendez
Samsunspor & Rayo Vallecano Squad Analysis
The hosts are battling a number of injury absences. Zeki Yavru, Emre Kilinc, Afonso Souza, and Jaures Assoumou were all missing from Samsunspor’s latest game.
Samsunspor have experimented with a 4-4-2 formation in the second leg of their knockout phase playoffs, while using a 4-2-3-1 system regularly. Whatever may be the system, all eyes will be on their Chad national striker Marius Mouandilmadji, who is the competition’s top-scorer.
Marius has seven goals in the Conference League this season.
Rayo will likely miss Pathe Ciss, who was absent from their last weekend’s draw. Diego Mendez remains their long-term absentee. It would be interesting to see how they will line up, as the visitors have used a defensive 4-2-3-1 formation regularly. That changed to a 4-3-3 formation in their last four Conference League games.
Should they use the same offensive formation, Alvaro Garcia could be crucial for Rayo’s chances. The winger lined up on the left flank in the front three and has five goals in this season’s Conference League.
Most goals and assists
Samsunspor
Rayo Vallecano
M. Mouandilmadji
(8 Goals)
Alemao
(4 Goals)
C. Holse
(5 Assists)
A. Garcia
(3 Assists)
,
I. Palazon
(3 Assists)
Samsunspor - Rayo Vallecano Key Points
- Vallecano averaged 2.17 goals per game in their six Conference League games this season.
- Samsunspor averaged 2.00 goals per game in their last seven Conference League matches.
- Samsunspor scored in seven of their last eight Conference League matches this season.
- Vallecano saw both teams score goals in four of their last five Conference League matches.
- Four of Vallecano’s last six away matches in all competitions saw both teams score goals.
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Our Samsunspor vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction
Samsunspor had to navigate through the knockout phase play-offs, but their 5-0 aggregate win over Shkendija gives them momentum ahead of this round. They have scored 15 goals in the Conference League this season, from the league phase onwards, while Rayo aren’t too far behind with 13. In fact, the Spanish La Liga side have been one of the prolific sides in this year’s competition.
With such high-scoring teams on view, goals come into the equation, and our Samsunspor vs Rayo Vallecano prediction is both teams to score.
Samsunspor vs Rayo Vallecano Alternative Predictions
Samsunspor wins
Samsunspor have three wins from their four home matches in the Conference League, losing just once. Rayo come here on the back of a five-game unbeaten run, but they haven’t impressed on the road. Three defeats out of the last five away games make it a tough trip for the Spanish visitors. This could end up throwing a surprise result.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Samsunspor Rayo Vallecano
| Samsunspor vs Rayo Vallecano | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor wins | 2.67 | 3.8 | +42.3% |
| Draw | 3.3 | 3.25 | -1.5% |
| Rayo Vallecano wins | 2.35 | 2.18 | -7.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Samsunspor is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 42.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 37.5% and is now 26.3% (-11.1%)
Samsunspor vs Rayo Vallecano - FAQs
TNT Sports are the official broadcasters of the Conference League in the United Kingdom. In Turkiye, it is TRT who are the official broadcasters. In Spain, Telefonica are the broadcasters.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our UEFA Conference League Livescore page!
The top eight teams at the end of the League phase have received a direct entry into the round of 16. The teams ranked from 9th to 24th are playing in the knockout phase play-offs, where the teams which ended up between 9th to 16th will be seeded while the remaining teams are unseeded. The teams from 25th down to 36th are eliminated.
The winner of this two-legged fixture will face either Celje or AEK Athens in the round of 16.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
