PSG vs Marseille Prediction & Betting Tips - Trophée des Champions
France - Trophée des Champions
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by Ita Emmanuel | in Football Predictions
The 2025 French Super Cup final will see PSG clash against Olympique Marseille on Thursday at the Jaber Al Ahmad International Stadium in Kuwait. Can the Parisians edge Olympique Marseille to win a 14th French Super Cup? Let's get into the details and our prediction.
A historic treble-winning campaign last season saw PSG also book their place in the 2025 French Super Cup final for the 13th consecutive time. They remain one of the most successful teams in the event with 13 titles and have won it 11 times in their last 12 appearances. The French footballing giants will also be aiming for a fourth consecutive Super Cup victory.
Olympique Marseille secured their place in this Super Cup final after finishing distant second to PSG in the Ligue 1 standings last season. They last won the competition in 2011 and suffered defeat in the 2020 edition to PSG. The three-time champions have lost 33 of their last 62 meetings with PSG, drawing 12 and winning 17. Can they end their 15-year wait for the Super Cup with a win against PSG on Thursday? Continue reading for detailed stats and analysis.
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The Best Betting Odds for PSG v Marseille Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.5 | 4.33 | 6 |
|
|
1.47 | 4.7 | 6 |
|
|
1.51 | 4.52 | 5.9 |
|
|
1.52 | 4.5 | 5.8 |
|
|
1.49 | 4.9 | 6 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between PSG and Marseille?
Our prediction for the PSG vs Marseille match is: PSG wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 08/01/2026 between PSG and Marseille in Trophée des Champions :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 55.89% for a win of PSG against Marseille with odds of 1.52 at BC Game.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between PSG vs Marseille is 12.38% with odds of 4.9 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 31.73% chance ⭐ for a win of Marseille vs PSG with odds of 6.4 at LSbet.
PSG - Marseille Prediction and Best Odds:
| PSG Marseille Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| PSG wins | 55.89% | 1.52 at BC Game |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.41% | 1.58 at 888Starz |
| Both Team To Score | 50.42% | 1.67 at Bet365 |
| Half-time / Full-time : PSG/PSG | 26.12% | 2.2 at Bet365 |
PSG vs Marseille Form
PSG and Marseille Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
20 Dec 2025 - French Cup
17 Dec 2025 - FIFA Intercontinental Cup
13 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
17 Dec 2025 - FIFA Intercontinental Cup
6 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - French Cup
13 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
29 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Dec 2025 - French Cup
14 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
5 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
8 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Dec 2025 - French Cup
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
5 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
21 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
1 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
25 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
PSG vs Marseille Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
83 %
0 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
22 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
16 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
27 Oct 2024 - Ligue 1
31 Mar 2024 - Ligue 1
24 Sept 2023 - Ligue 1
26 Feb 2023 - Ligue 1
PSG - Marseille: Form Analysis
After a narrow 1–0 Ligue 1 defeat to Monaco in November 2025, PSG went unbeaten in their next six matches, winning five. They capped this solid recent run with a 2–1 Ligue 1 victory over Paris FC last week, thanks to Desire Doue and Ousmane Dembele's goals.
That result saw the Ligue 1 giants close the gap on league leaders Lens to one point, while opening a seven-point gap on third-placed Marseille. Luis Enrique's charges head into Thursday's contest on a four-match winning run against domestic opponents.
PSG have scored a total of seven goals and conceded none in their last three French Super Cup final
Olympique Marseille will enter this match still nursing a shock 2–0 home defeat to Nantes in Ligue 1 last week. Fabien Centonze and Remy Cabella both scored as Nantes leveraged their numerical advantage to end Marseille's three-match winning run.
Roberto De Zerbi's charges saw off a PSG side without Ousmane Dembele earlier in Ligue 1 this season, but will have to punch above their weight to overcome the French giants on Thursday with Dembele back in the team. They have lost five of their six most recent meetings with PSG.
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PSG against Marseille Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Substitutes
R. Marin
M. James
DefenderI. Zabarnyi
Beraldo
L. Hernandez
MidfielderN. Nsoki
S. Mayulu
G. Ramos
B. Barcola
J. De Lange
DefenderC. Egan-Riley
A. Murillo
H. Traore
D. Bakola
M. O'Riley
P. Aubameyang
R. Vaz
N. Maupay
Missing players
M. Safonov
DefenderA. Hakimi
MidfielderL. Kang-in
ForwardI. Mbaye
Q. Ndjantou
N. Aguerd
MidfielderB. Nadir
A. Vermeeren
PSG & Marseille Squad Analysis
PSG will be without Achraf Hakimi, who is on AFCON duties with the Morocco national team after recently recovering from injury. However, Warren Zaire-Emery has efficiently deputized for the right-back and ranks among the top 15% in Europe's top leagues for blocks and the top 16% for successful take-ons in the last 365 days.
Ousmane Dembele will make his 111th appearance for PSG against Olympique Marseille on Thursday
Marseille will also have to watch out for Ballon d'Or holder, Ousmane Dembele, who has scored back-to-back goals, including the winner against Paris FC last week, in his first two starts for PSG after recovering from a knock to his right knee. Vitinha boasts a team-high 13 G/A this season and is expected to lead the midfield battle for the Ligue 1 champions.
Goalkeeper Ruben Blanco remains a doubt for Marseille due to a knee injury, with Geronimo Rulli expected to return on goalpost. Pierre-Emerick Aubamenyang made an early AFCON exit to Marseille, but remains a doubt due to a thigh injury.
However, PSG will still have to keep an eye on former Man United forward, Mason Greenwood, who has scored 11 goals and provided three assists in 15 starts for the Olympians this season.
Most goals and assists
PSG
Marseille
O. Dembele
(1 Goals)
, 
G. Ramos
(1 Goals)
M. Greenwood
(1 Goals)
Vitinha
(1 Assists)
,
B. Barcola
(1 Assists)
PSG - Marseille Key Points
- PSG have won their last four matches against domestic opponents.
- PSG are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions.
- Olympique Marseille suffered a shock home defeat in their last match.
- Olympique Marseille have lost five of their last six matches against PSG.
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Our PSG vs Marseille Prediction
PSG remains unrivaled in the French Super Cup and will look to consolidate their dominance on Thursday. The Ligue 1 giants will be looking for their 14th and fourth consecutive French Super Cup trophy, while Olympique Marseille targets their first since 2011.
Apart from their contrasting fortunes in the Super Cup, the two teams are on opposite ends of the form ladder heading into this match. PSG are unbeaten in their last five matches and have won five of their last six matchups with Olympique Marseille. Hence, our PSG vs Olympique Marseille prediction is PSG wins.
PSG vs Marseille - Other Interesting Predictions
Over 2.5 goals.
PSG have been terrific on the attack lately, scoring 11 goals in their last four matches. All of these matches have ended with over 2.5 goals, including five of their seven most recent matchups with Olympique Marseille.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis PSG Marseille
| PSG vs Marseille | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSG wins | 1.57 | 1.52 | -3.2% |
| Draw | 4.2 | 4.9 | +16.7% |
| Marseille wins | 5.6 | 6.4 | +14.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- PSG is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 3.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 63.7% and is now 65.8% (2.1%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
