Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga
Spain - LaLiga
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by Kennedy Kechula | in LaLiga Predictions
Osasuna will be looking to make home advantage count against Atletico Madrid in their next La Liga match. The hosts are five points above the bottom three, while Atletico have secured their top-four slot. Both sides are coming off disappointing results, but this fixture has historically been a heavily one-sided affair in favour of Los Colchoneros, leading to our prediction of Atletico to bounce back.
Osasuna have gained 42 points, which they’ll feel is a good achievement, having earlier been tipped for the relegation scrap. Alessio Lisci’s side disappointingly conceded in stoppage time to lose 3-2 to Levante last time out, a game they had led 2-0.
That marked a third loss in four games for the hosts and they’ve only won twice in 10.
Osasuna will be looking to take advantage of more than just playing home. They know that Atletico aren’t in high spirits at the moment. The visitors were recently beaten in the Copa del Rey final and got eliminated from the Champions League.
Their La Liga run hasn’t been great either. All combined, Atletico Madrid have managed just two wins in their last nine matches (5L, 2D). Goals have also dried up at Diego Simeone’s side, failing to score in the last two games.
However, the team from the capital has won eight times in the last 10 visits here. In the reverse meeting between the two, Atletico managed a 1-0 win.
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Osasuna v Atletico Madrid Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.6 | 3.55 | 2.7 |
|
|
2.63 | 3.5 | 2.58 |
|
|
2.55 | 3.58 | 2.62 |
|
|
2.63 | 3.5 | 2.55 |
|
|
2.58 | 3.45 | 2.58 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid?
Our prediction for the Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid match is: Atletico Madrid wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/05/2026 between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 48.15% for a win of Osasuna against Atletico Madrid with odds of 2.7 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid is 18.65% with odds of 3.73 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 33.21% chance ⭐ for a win of Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna with odds of 2.71 at 888Starz.
Osasuna - Atletico Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Osasuna Atletico Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Osasuna wins | 48.15% | 2.7 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.34% | 1.93 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 60.83% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Osasuna | 22.72% | 6.5 at Bet365 |
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Form
Osasuna and Atletico Madrid's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
69 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | +18 |
|
17
|
42 | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | -6 |
Osasuna and Atletico Madrid Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 May 2026 - LaLiga
2 May 2026 - LaLiga
26 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
21 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
12 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
5 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - LaLiga
26 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
12 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
21 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
7 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
21 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 May 2026 - LaLiga
21 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
5 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
15 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
1 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
13 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 May 2026 - LaLiga
5 May 2026 - Champions League
2 May 2026 - LaLiga
29 Apr 2026 - Champions League
25 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
22 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 May 2026 - LaLiga
29 Apr 2026 - Champions League
25 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
18 Apr 2026 - Copa del Rey
14 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 May 2026 - Champions League
2 May 2026 - LaLiga
22 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
11 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
8 Apr 2026 - Champions League
22 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
0 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
18 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
15 May 2025 - LaLiga
12 Jan 2025 - LaLiga
19 May 2024 - LaLiga
28 Sept 2023 - LaLiga
21 May 2023 - LaLiga
Osasuna against Atletico Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
D. Stamatakis
R. Fernandez
DefenderJ. Cruz
J. Herrando
MidfielderA. Bretones
A. Osambela
I. Munoz
ForwardK. Barja
R. Garcia
I. Arguibide
I. Benito
A. Oroz
S. Esquivel Gamez
J. Oblak
DefenderR. Le Normand
R. Belaid
J. Bonar
A. Puric
C. Lenglet
J. Diaz
J. Morcillo
ForwardA. Sorloth
M. Llorente
I. Luque Sierra
Missing players
S. Herrera
ForwardV. Munoz
J. Gimenez
N. Molina
MidfielderN. Gonzalez
A. Baena
J. Cardoso
P. Barrios
ForwardJ. Alvarez
G. Simeone
Most goals and assists
Osasuna
Atletico Madrid
A. Budimir
(17 Goals)
A. Sorloth
(13 Goals)
R. Garcia
(5 Assists)
G. Simeone
(6 Assists)
Osasuna - Atletico Madrid Key Points
- Atletico have won two of their last three league matches.
- Atletico Madrid won three of their last five meetings with Osasuna.
- Atletico Madrid have posted eight more wins than Osasuna in La Liga.
- In eight of Osasuna’s last 10 home games against Atletico, they suffered defeats.
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Our Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Osasuna and Atletico Madrid have had issues to do with consistency but both will be looking to end the season strongly. In the context of their season’s ambitions, Atletico will feel much hasn’t been achieved, but this is a fixture they’ve done superbly in.
They won three of the last five matches against Osasuna and come here having had a better season. Osasuna look likely to struggle here, having lost eight times in the last 10 home matches against Atletico. Our prediction for Osasuna v Atletico Madrid is that Atletico Madrid wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Osasuna Atletico Madrid
| Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna wins | 2.55 | 2.7 | +5.9% |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.73 | +5.1% |
| Atletico Madrid wins | 2.5 | 2.71 | +8.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Osasuna is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 5.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 39.2% and is now 37.0% (-2.2%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
