Europe - Champions League
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Champions League Predictions
Newcastle United and Athletic Bilbao have both faced English and Spanish opposition in the Champions League and lost. The two will square off in the league phase as the competition enters matchday four, in a clash to be hosted at Newcastle United’s St. James’ Park. Below we have the preview and a prediction of the match.
By a long shot, these two are minnows in the Champions League, but either side will go into this game feeling capable of winning. Their only meetings in Europe date back 30 years ago in the UEFA Cup, a second-round match that Athletic Bilbao prevailed in. They won on the away goal rule after a 3-3 draw on aggregate.
Whereas Newcastle United have six defeats and three wins against Spanish teams, Athletic lost seven of their previous nine away matches when facing English teams. The Spaniards have this season lost twice in the league phase and are 21st, while Newcastle, with two wins in three are eighth.
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The Best Betting Odds for Newcastle v Athletic Bilbao Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.33 | 5.25 | 9 |
|
|
1.33 | 5 | 11 |
|
|
1.36 | 4.75 | 8.5 |
|
|
1.35 | 4.75 | 9 |
|
|
1.3 | 5.1 | 10.5 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Newcastle and Athletic Bilbao?
Our prediction for the Newcastle vs Athletic Bilbao match is: Newcastle United wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/11/2025 between Newcastle and Athletic Bilbao in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 68.83% for a win of Newcastle against Athletic Bilbao with odds of 1.36 at William Hill.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Newcastle vs Athletic Bilbao is 10.24% with odds of 5.25 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 20.92% chance ⭐ for a win of Athletic Bilbao vs Newcastle with odds of 11 at Betfred.
Newcastle - Athletic Bilbao Prediction and Best Odds:
| Newcastle Athletic Bilbao Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle wins | 68.83% | 1.36 at William Hill |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.31% | 1.98 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 52.38% | 2.2 at Unibet |
| Half-time / Full-time : Newcastle/Newcastle | 32.01% | 2 at Ladbrokes |
Newcastle vs Athletic Bilbao Form
Newcastle and Athletic Bilbao's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6
|
9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
|
27
|
3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 |
Newcastle and Athletic Bilbao Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Nov 2025 - Premier League
29 Oct 2025 - Carabao Cup
25 Oct 2025 - Premier League
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
18 Oct 2025 - Premier League
5 Oct 2025 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Oct 2025 - Carabao Cup
25 Oct 2025 - Premier League
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
5 Oct 2025 - Premier League
28 Sept 2025 - Premier League
24 Sept 2025 - Carabao Cup
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Nov 2025 - Premier League
18 Oct 2025 - Premier League
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
21 Sept 2025 - Premier League
30 Aug 2025 - Premier League
16 Aug 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
25 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
4 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
4 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
23 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
13 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
20 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
31 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
Newcastle - Athletic Bilbao: Form Analysis
Newcastle United haven't had a consistent season so far but have been pretty solid at St. James’ Park. Nothing much captures their struggles in the season better than the fact they are coming off a 3-1 loss to West Ham United in the Premier League.
It was a result that left them 13th in the standings, but times are much better in Europe. After their opening defeat to Barcelona, the Magpies turned up in style with wins against Benfica and Union SG.
They scored seven goals in the two matches and will feel ready for a much more manageable Spanish opponent. Here they are going for a fifth straight home win.
Only Arsenal, Liverpool, and Barcelona have beaten Newcastle at home this season.
Athletic Bilbao had a good start to the season, winning their opening three matches, but then it all went wrong after the first international break.
In that period Athletic went winless in six straight matches, including two losses in the Champions League against Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund.
There was some recovery, with two wins in three matches, inclusive of their first win in this competition, against Qarabag. However, the good times didn’t last, and the Basque side is coming off two straight losses, the latest a 3-2 away loss to Real Sociedad.
Quite notably, Athletic are winless in the last five away matches, losing four in the process.
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Newcastle against Athletic Bilbao Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Missing players
T. Livramento
MidfielderY. Wissa
U. Egiluz
MidfielderB. Prados
ForwardI. Williams
M. Sannadi
Newcastle & Athletic Bilbao Squad Analysis
Anthony Gordon will be one of the highlighted players in this match. The Englishman has scored in all three Champions League matches so far.
He is the first Newcastle player to score in three successive games in the competition. Last time out at home, he added an assist to his goal against Benfica.
Another player worth noting is Nick Woltemade. The German has had a flying start in England and has already scored six times for the Magpies. One of his goals came in the Champions League, against Union SG.
Newcastle United's new signing, Yoane Wissa, is ruled out with a knee injury.
Athletic Bilbao are set to miss their talisman, Inaki Williams, in this match. The Ghanaian forward has been struggling in recent weeks.
He didn’t play a full game in five straight outings before completely missing the last two with a groin strain. In the treatment room, Williams will be joined by Maroan Sannadi, who suffered a knee injury in the loss to Getafe.
Benat Diaz remains sidelined long-term with a knee injury, which has limited him to only two appearances this season. The Spaniard has only featured for a total of 86 minutes in 2025/26.
Most goals and assists
Newcastle
Athletic Bilbao
N. Woltemade
(6 Goals)
G. Guruzeta
(4 Goals)
S. Tonali
(3 Assists)
, 
J. Murphy
(3 Assists)
, 
B. Guimaraes
(3 Assists)
M. Jauregizar
(2 Assists)
,
N. Williams
(2 Assists)
Newcastle - Athletic Bilbao Key Points
- Athletic are winless in the last five away matches in Europe.
- Newcastle United won 22 of their last 33 home matches in Europe.
- Athletic Club lost seven of nine away matches against English sides.
- Athletic Club haven't won any of their last five away matches.
- Newcastle United have posted four straight wins at home.
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Our Newcastle vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction
Newcastle United have grown in Europe since that opening home loss to Barcelona. They thrashed Benfica in their next home game in Europe in a statement win. That is part of their current four-match winning run at home, and they have three clean sheets in the four games.
This run, when put side by side with Athletic Club’s away record, has Newcastle United as clear favorites. The Spaniards have conceded 10 times in their last five away matches, and their struggles against English sides are well documented. Our prediction for Newcastle United v Athletic Bilbao is that Newcastle United wins.
Newcastle vs Athletic Bilbao - Other Interesting Predictions
Newcastle United win to nil
Newcastle United haven't just been impressive at home but have also been solid defensively. This has seen them concede just one goal in the last four home matches, all of which they won.
The Magpies’ home losses this season were only against formidable sides—Arsenal, Barcelona, and Liverpool. As this looks like another winnable game, we will back them to win to nil in our second prediction.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Newcastle Athletic Bilbao
| Newcastle vs Athletic Bilbao | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle wins | 1.62 | 1.33 | -17.9% |
| Draw | 4.1 | 5.25 | +28.0% |
| Athletic Bilbao wins | 5.25 | 9 | +71.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Newcastle is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 17.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 61.7% and is now 75.2% (13.5%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Newcastle vs. Athletic Bilbao game
You can get yourself up to €150 in matched bets for the battle between Newcastle and Athletic Bilbao when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on Champions League!
Newcastle vs Athletic Bilbao match : Frequently asked questions
The Newcastle United v Athletic Bilbao match will be played on Wednesday, 5th November.
The Newcastle United v Athletic Bilbao match will be staged at St. James’ Park.
The Newcastle United v Athletic Bilbao match will be aired live. In the UK, TNT Sports and Amazon Prime will broadcast the match. It will also be live on Telefonica for Spanish audiences, and Sportytrader will have live updates for this and other Champions League matches.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
