Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction & Betting Tips - Serie A
Italy - Serie A
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Serie A Predictions
With Inter Milan faltering lately, Napoli facing AC Milan in the Italian Serie A has gained relevance as a key game in the title race. Napoli plays host to AC Milan a day after Inter Milan meets AS Roma in another key clash, and this is definitely an important weekend in Italian football. Let’s dive deeper into the preview for this match before looking at the prediction.
Napoli, who earlier looked down and out in their own title defence, are well in it after a run of four straight wins to hit 62 points. They now sit seven points and two places behind leaders Inter Milan.
The leaders’ archrival, AC Milan have taken a few hits in recent times but are still in the title matrix. They trail Inter Milan by six points. Napoli have dominated recent clashes against AC Milan, winning three of the last four meetings. Milan did win the reverse fixture, though.
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Napoli v AC Milan Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.48 | 3.05 | 3.35 |
|
|
2.43 | 2.99 | 3.24 |
|
|
2.5 | 3.02 | 3.11 |
|
|
2.4 | 3 | 3.25 |
|
|
2.4 | 2.92 | 3.25 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Napoli and AC Milan?
Our prediction for the Napoli vs AC Milan match is: Napoli wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 06/04/2026 between Napoli and AC Milan in Serie A :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 37.47% for a win of Napoli against AC Milan with odds of 2.52 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Napoli vs AC Milan is 21.97% with odds of 3.1 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 40.57% chance ⭐ for a win of AC Milan vs Napoli with odds of 3.4 at Tonybet.
Napoli - AC Milan Prediction and Best Odds:
| Napoli AC Milan Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan wins | 40.57% | 3.4 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 2.35 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score | 67.5% | |
| Half-time : Napoli / Full-time : AC Milan | 14.95% | 40 at LSbet |
Napoli vs AC Milan Form
Napoli and AC Milan's standings in the Serie A
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
76 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | +22 |
|
5
|
70 | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | +18 |
Napoli and AC Milan Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Mar 2026 - Serie A
14 Mar 2026 - Serie A
6 Mar 2026 - Serie A
28 Feb 2026 - Serie A
22 Feb 2026 - Serie A
15 Feb 2026 - Serie A
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - Serie A
6 Mar 2026 - Serie A
15 Feb 2026 - Serie A
10 Feb 2026 - Coppa Italia
31 Jan 2026 - Serie A
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Mar 2026 - Serie A
28 Feb 2026 - Serie A
22 Feb 2026 - Serie A
7 Feb 2026 - Serie A
25 Jan 2026 - Serie A
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Mar 2026 - Serie A
15 Mar 2026 - Serie A
8 Mar 2026 - Serie A
1 Mar 2026 - Serie A
22 Feb 2026 - Serie A
18 Feb 2026 - Serie A
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Mar 2026 - Serie A
8 Mar 2026 - Serie A
22 Feb 2026 - Serie A
18 Feb 2026 - Serie A
18 Jan 2026 - Serie A
8 Jan 2026 - Serie A
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Mar 2026 - Serie A
1 Mar 2026 - Serie A
13 Feb 2026 - Serie A
3 Feb 2026 - Serie A
25 Jan 2026 - Serie A
15 Jan 2026 - Serie A
Napoli vs AC Milan Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
17 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
18 Dec 2025 - Italian Super Cup
28 Sept 2025 - Serie A
30 Mar 2025 - Serie A
29 Oct 2024 - Serie A
11 Feb 2024 - Serie A
29 Oct 2023 - Serie A
Napoli - AC Milan: Form Analysis
While only seven points separate the leaders from third-placed Napoli, this battle generally feels like a fight for second spot. Napoli start the round sitting third in a clash neither side can afford to lose. They come into this game in good form, though their season was messed largely by a slow start to 2026.
A 1-0 win at Cagliari before the international break saw Napoli win four straight league games for the first time since August/September. Just to show how tough it has been for the champions, that was also their first clean sheet in 12 matches. A big plus for Antonio Conte’s men, though, is their home form. They are still unbeaten at home in the league this season.
Napoli last lost a home league game in December 2024.
This match will mark the third meeting between these teams this season. While Napoli beat Milan in the Super Cup just before Christmas, the honors from the reverse fixture went to the Rossoneri. They won 2-1 at home and will want to complete a league double here.
In recent meetings, Milan have been dominated by their hosts here, losing three of the last four against Napoli. The last time they met a side in the top four, Milan beat Inter Milan 1-0, and they will feel capable of doing the job here too. Before heading into the international break, they beat Torino 3-2 to stay six points behind Inter.
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Napoli against AC Milan Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Substitutes
A. Meret
N. Contini
DefenderS. Beukema
P. Mazzocchi
MidfielderE. Elmas
B. Gilmour
A. Santos
M. Politano
L. Torriani
P. Terracciano
DefenderD. Odogu
P. Estupinan
Z. Athekame
S. Ricci
R. Loftus-Cheek
A. Jashari
ForwardC. Pulisic
R. Leao
S. Gimenez
Missing players
A. Rrahmani
ForwardR. Lukaku
Napoli & AC Milan Squad Analysis
Scott McTominay has come through for Napoli a number of times and was on hand again last time out. He scored the only goal against Cagliari to earn his team three points. That was his 10th goal involvement this season in the league, underlining his importance.
The availability of Kevin De Bruyne will also lift Napoli. The Belgian has already had a massive impact since recovering from injury, and among his goals was one against Milan in the reverse fixture. His countryman, Romelu Lukaku, hasn’t had similar luck, though, with injury ravaging his season. The forward has only featured in five league matches, scoring once.
Milan keeper Mike Maignan is set to make his 150th Serie A appearance.
Milan haven't had continental matches to think of this season and, as such, hasn't had to deal with many injuries. They come here with the comfort of being able to call on their best two attackers, Rafael Leao and Cristian Pulisic.
The two have a combined 17 goals and are backed by equally capable forwards in Christopher Nkunku and Niklas Füllkrug, while Santiago Gimenez is back from injury. The only major absentee for Milan is Matteo Gabbia, who is out with a hernia and expected back later this month.
Most goals and assists
Napoli
AC Milan
R. Hojlund
(12 Goals)
R. Leao
(9 Goals)
Giovane
(6 Assists)
A. Rabiot
(4 Assists)
, 
C. Pulisic
(4 Assists)
, 
S. Ricci
(4 Assists)
Napoli - AC Milan Key Points
- Napoli are unbeaten at home this season, winning 10 of 14.
- Napoli have posted four straight wins ahead of this game.
- Milan have lost three of their last four meetings with Napoli.
- Milan are winless in half their last six matches, losing twice.
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Our Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction
There might be a very small margin separating these two giants of Italian football, but there is a feeling this won’t be a draw. After three straight draws in this fixture, none of the last five matches saw a share of spoils between the teams.
Now as we back one to win, a lot shows it would be Napoli. They have a good run at home, being unbeaten in the league all season. The hosts are also coming here on four straight wins in the league and have dominated recent meetings with Milan. Our prediction for Napoli v AC Milan is that Napoli wins.
Napoli vs AC Milan Alternative Predictions
BTTS
While Napoli look likely to win here, their long run without a clean sheet suggests they may concede again. The Partenopei have one clean sheet in 12 matches, and Milan will seek to exploit that aspect. The visitors failed to score just twice in 15 matches and will be confident of carrying their good run here. Our second prediction here is BTTS.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Napoli AC Milan
| Napoli vs AC Milan | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli wins | 2.63 | 2.52 | -4.2% |
| Draw | 3.1 | 3.1 | 0% |
| AC Milan wins | 3.2 | 3.4 | +6.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- AC Milan is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 6.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 31.3% and is now 29.4% (-1.8%)
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Napoli vs AC Milan - FAQs
The Napoli v AC Milan match will be played on Monday, 6th April.
The Napoli v AC Milan match will be played at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium in Naples.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
