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Metz vs Marseille Prediction & Betting Tips - Ligue 1

France - Ligue 1

Metz
04/10/2025 11:00
Marseille

Prediction :

 

Marseille wins

 
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 by Ian John | in Ligue 1 Predictions

We're heading to Ligue One for our next match prediction this week as struggling Metz host Marseille in what should be an interesting clash at the Stade Saint-Symphorien. Stephane Le Mignan's Maroons have struggled this season and are yet to win, while Roberto De Zerbi's Phocaeans have started the season brightly.

This is emphasised by the league table where after six games of the campaign so far, Metz sit bottom of the table with just two points collected from six matches. In contrast, Marseille have won four of their opening six matches, losing the other two games, and sit third in the table, ahead of Monaco and Strasbourg on goal difference but three points behind PSG and Lyon.

As you would expect for the bottom club Metz, their form isn't great heading into this fixture. Without a win this season, they have at least drawn two of their last three. A 1-1 home draw with Angers was followed by a 5-2 defeat away to AS Monaco, but last weekend they earned another point with a 0-0 draw at home to Le Havre.

Marseille's form heading into this fixture is outstanding. They began a their run of three wins with an impressive 1-0 win over Paris St. Germain and then followed that with a 2-1 away win over Strasbourg, two wins over teams that were above them in the table. Then in midweek, they thrashed Ajax 4-0 in their second Champions League League Stage game.

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The Best Betting Odds for Metz v Marseille Match

Bookmaker 1 X 2 Bonus up to
Bet365
6 4.5 1.5
Betfred
6.5 4.5 1.5
William Hill
5.8 4.33 1.5
Betway
5.75 4.5 1.5
Unibet
6.4 4.5 1.49
Check all Metz vs Marseille odds

What is the prediction for the football match between Metz and Marseille?

Our prediction for the Metz vs Marseille match is: Marseille wins the match.

Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/10/2025 between Metz and Marseille in Ligue 1 :

  • The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 27.72% for a win of Metz against Marseille with odds of 6.5 at Betfred.
  • The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Metz vs Marseille is 32.19% with odds of 4.8 at Tonybet.
  • Our prediction model gives a 40.09% chance ⭐ for a win of Marseille vs Metz with odds of 1.56 at 22bet.

Metz - Marseille Prediction and Best Odds:

Metz Marseille Prediction Probability Odds
Marseille wins 40.09% 1.56 at 22bet
Under 2.5 61.04% 2.4 at 22bet
Both Team To Score 45.42%
Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Marseille 20.77% 4.7 at Unibet

Metz vs Marseille Form

Metz and Marseille's standings in the Ligue 1

Teams Pts P W D L GD
2
Marseille
Marseille
25 12 8 1 3 17
14
Metz
Metz
11 12 3 2 7 -15

Metz and Marseille Last Matches

Metz
Metz Last matches
L L L D L D
Wins

0/6 (0%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3 Total goals
50% BTTS
0.83 Goals scored
2.17 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

28 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1

Metz
0 :  0
Le Havre

21 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1

Monaco
5 :  2
Metz

14 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1

Metz
1 :  1
Angers

31 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1

Paris FC
3 :  2
Metz

23 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1

Lyon
3 :  0
Metz

17 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1

Metz
0 :  1
Strasbourg
D W W L D D
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.67 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.17 Goals scored
0.5 Goals conceded
17% Over 2.5
83% Under 2.5

28 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1

Metz
0 :  0
Le Havre

14 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1

Metz
1 :  1
Angers

17 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1

Metz
0 :  1
Strasbourg

19 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Metz
4 :  0
Red Star

16 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Metz
1 :  0
US Mondorf-Les-Bains

21 May 2025 - Ligue 1

Metz
1 :  1
Reims
W W L L L L
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

5.33 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
3.67 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

21 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1

Monaco
5 :  2
Metz

31 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1

Paris FC
3 :  2
Metz

23 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1

Lyon
3 :  0
Metz

9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Hoffenheim
8 :  0
Metz

2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Troyes
0 :  1
Metz

30 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Thionville US Lusitanos
3 :  5
Metz
Marseille
Marseille Last matches
L W L W W W
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
33% BTTS
2 Goals scored
0.67 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

30 Sept 2025 - Champions League

Marseille
4 :  0
Ajax

26 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1

Strasbourg
1 :  2
Marseille

22 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1

Marseille
1 :  0
PSG

16 Sept 2025 - Champions League

Real Madrid
2 :  1
Marseille

12 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1

Marseille
4 :  0
Lorient

31 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1

Lyon
1 :  0
Marseille
D W W W W W
Wins

5/6 (83%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.67 Total goals
50% BTTS
3 Goals scored
0.67 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

30 Sept 2025 - Champions League

Marseille
4 :  0
Ajax

22 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1

Marseille
1 :  0
PSG

12 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1

Marseille
4 :  0
Lorient

23 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1

Marseille
5 :  2
Paris FC

9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Marseille
3 :  1
Aston Villa

2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Marseille
1 :  1
Sevilla
D W L L L W
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2 Total goals
50% BTTS
1 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

26 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1

Strasbourg
1 :  2
Marseille

16 Sept 2025 - Champions League

Real Madrid
2 :  1
Marseille

31 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1

Lyon
1 :  0
Marseille

15 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1

Rennes
1 :  0
Marseille

26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Girona
0 :  2
Marseille

21 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Charleroi
1 :  1
Marseille

Metz vs Marseille Stats: Head to Head (H2H)

Metz

0 %

Draw

83 %

Marseille

17 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

2.17
Total goals
83%
BTTS
1
Goals scored (home team)
1.17
Goals scored (away team)
33%
Over 2.5
67%
Under 2.5

9 Feb 2024 - Ligue 1

Marseille
1 :  1
Metz

18 Aug 2023 - Ligue 1

Metz
2 :  2
Marseille

13 Feb 2022 - Ligue 1

Metz
1 :  2
Marseille

7 Nov 2021 - Ligue 1

Marseille
0 :  0
Metz

23 May 2021 - Ligue 1

Metz
1 :  1
Marseille

26 Sept 2020 - Ligue 1

Marseille
1 :  1
Metz
Improve your sports betting with our football team comparison tool (100+ statistics)

Metz against Marseille Lineups: Starting 11

Metz

Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1

1
J. Fischer
38
S. Sane
15
T. Yegbe
5
J. Gbamin
39
K. Kouao
8
B. Traore
20
J. Deminguet
97
F. Ballo-Toure
10
G. Hein
14
C. Sabaly
30
H. Diallo
34
R. Vaz
14
I. Paixao
17
M. O'Riley
10
M. Greenwood
23
P. Hojbjerg
8
A. Gomes
33
Emerson
21
N. Aguerd
28
B. Pavard
22
T. Weah
1
G. Rulli

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

Marseille

Missing players

Metz
Metz
Defender

B. Stambouli

U. Mboula

Forward

M. Mbaye

Marseille
Marseille
Defender

F. Medina

Midfielder

H. Traore

G. Kondogbia

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Metz
CD Huachipato Marseille
Top Goalscorer
France G. Hein (4 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
England M. Greenwood (9 Goals)
Best assists
France G. Hein (2 Assists)
Best assists
Gabon P. Aubameyang (5 Assists)

Metz - Marseille Key Points

  1. Metz are yet to win a game this season.
  2. Marseille have won all their last three games heading into this fixture against quality opposition.
  3. Metz have not won any of their previous nine games against Marseille.
  4. Only Lorient (14) have conceded more than Metz's 13 league goals this season.
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Our Metz vs Marseille Prediction

Our prediction for the Metz vs. Marseille Ligue One match is: Marseille wins the match.

The data for this game is strongly suggesting that a win for Marseille is the result to back here. Metz have yet to win a league game this season. Marseille come into this fixture on the back of three outstanding wins. The home team has struggled to score goals and conceded plenty, Marseille have been scoring lots of goals recently. As such, backing the visitors to land the win is the bet to back here.

Prediction :

 

Marseille wins

 
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Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Metz Marseille

Metz vs Marseille Opening odds Pre-match odds Odds Movements
Metz wins 7.5 6 -20.0%
Draw 4.75 4.5 -5.3%
Marseille wins 1.38 1.5 +8.7%
Latest odds movements:

After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:

  • Marseille is most likely to win
  • The odds for this bet have increased by 8.7% since opening
  • The probability of this result was 72.5% and is now 66.7% (-5.8%)

Use £/€50 free bets for the Metz vs. Marseille game!

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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Metz vs Marseille Prediction

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