Portsmouth vs Arsenal Prediction & Betting Tips - FA Cup
England - FA Cup
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by Thobelani Moyo | in FA Cup Predictions
EFL Championship meets Premier League in a high-stakes third round FA Cup clash, with Portsmouth taking on Arsenal at Fratton Park. This is the fifth meeting between these two sides in the FA Cup. The latter have the upper hand in this fixture with four wins. Here's our match prediction.
Two-time champions Portsmouth have competed in the third round of the FA Cup in three of their last five editions. However, they've never progressed beyond this stage in any of those appearances. In the previous edition, they were eliminated by Wycombe after a 2-0 defeat.
Arsenal are the most successful club in this competition, clinching a record 14 titles. Their last triumph, though, was in the 2019-20 edition, beating Chelsea 2-1 in the final. Since then, recent editions have seen more lows than highs. They've either been eliminated in the third or fourth round in their last five appearances. Can the Gunners impress this time in the 145th edition and reach the finals at Wembley?
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Portsmouth v Arsenal Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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16 | 7.8 | 1.15 |
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13 | 8.9 | 1.15 |
|
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16.5 | 7.5 | 1.14 |
|
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12 | 8.5 | 1.13 |
|
|
15 | 7.8 | 1.15 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Portsmouth and Arsenal?
Our prediction for the Portsmouth vs Arsenal match is: Arsenal to win and over 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/01/2026 between Portsmouth and Arsenal in FA Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 20.95% for a win of Portsmouth against Arsenal with odds of 23 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Portsmouth vs Arsenal is 25.66% with odds of 8.9 at Melbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 53.39% chance ⭐ for a win of Arsenal vs Portsmouth with odds of 1.17 at Tonybet.
Portsmouth - Arsenal Prediction and Best Odds:
| Portsmouth Arsenal Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 53.39% | 1.17 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.81% | |
| Both Team To Score | 56.25% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Arsenal/Arsenal | 24.18% | 1.55 at LSbet |
Portsmouth vs Arsenal Form
Portsmouth and Arsenal Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Jan 2026 - Championship
29 Dec 2025 - Championship
26 Dec 2025 - Championship
20 Dec 2025 - Championship
13 Dec 2025 - Championship
9 Dec 2025 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Dec 2025 - Championship
26 Dec 2025 - Championship
13 Dec 2025 - Championship
29 Nov 2025 - Championship
22 Nov 2025 - Championship
5 Nov 2025 - Championship
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Dec 2025 - Championship
9 Dec 2025 - Championship
26 Nov 2025 - Championship
8 Nov 2025 - Championship
1 Nov 2025 - Championship
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
23 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
23 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
13 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
30 Nov 2025 - Premier League
8 Nov 2025 - Premier League
Portsmouth vs Arsenal Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
2 Mar 2020 - FA Cup
Portsmouth - Arsenal: Form Analysis
Portsmouth is enduring a rough patch in the 2025-26 EFL Championship season. The home team has accumulated 25 points from 24 games and is one point ahead of the relegation zone.
Their confidence has been shaken, heading into this clash following a 5-0 mauling at the hands of Bristol City. Before this result, they were on a four-match unbeaten run.
Pompey now shift their focus to the FA Cup. It hasn't been a great display in this competition, having failed to progress beyond the third round in each of their last five editions, indicating they could struggle here.
Portsmouth have been eliminated in all four of their FA Cup ties against Arsenal.
Arsenal missed the chance to open up an eight-point gap at the top of the Premier League after being held to a goalless home draw against defending champions Liverpool. It's still early to press the panic button as they still maintain a six-point cushion over the chasing pack.
The Gunners have now avoided defeat in their last two matches since the turn of the year. Notably, they are unbeaten in their last eight matches across all competitions.
With the FA Cup in mind, Mikel Arteta's men will hope to overcome their demons in the third round. They have suffered two consecutive eliminations at this stage against Liverpool 2-0 and, most recently, Manchester United, losing 4-6 on penalties.
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Players list
J. Bursik
DefenderC. Shaughnessy
Z. Swanson
R. Poole
MidfielderL. Le Roux
A. Segecic
T. Devlin
A. Dozzell
ForwardH. Blair
C. Bishop
C. Chaplin
K. Arrizabalaga
DefenderG. Magalhaes
B. White
MidfielderM. Lewis-Skelly
E. Eze
C. Norgaard
M. Merino
ForwardG. Martinelli
N. Madueke
E. Nwaneri
G. Jesus
Substitutes
B. Killip
DefenderI. Bowat
J. Farrell
C. Ogilvie
J. Williams
M. Pack
J. Swift
F. Umeh Chibueze
M. Kirk
D. Raya
DefenderJ. Timber
M. Salmon
M. Zubimendi
M. Odegaard
D. Rice
ForwardB. Saka
K. Havertz
V. Gyokeres
Missing players
P. Hincapie
C. Mosquera
MidfielderM. Dowman
Portsmouth & Arsenal Squad Analysis
Portsmouth have lacked the cutting edge in the final third this season and are likely to be frustrated by their opponents' disciplined setup.
Makenzie Kirk is supposed to be the team's focal point in attack, but he has struggled, as evidenced by his one goal for the club in 11 EFL Championship appearances.
The creative spark could be found in midfield, with Adrian Segecic expected to step up here. The 21-year-old has scored four goals and provided two assists in his last 20 appearances for the club this season.
Viktor Gyokeres has failed to score in ten consecutive games from open play.
One thing is certain: Arsenal has a huge amount of squad depth compared to minnows Portsmouth. Expect a heavy rotation by head coach Mikel Arteta as he prepares for the London derby against Chelsea in the EFL Cup three days after this fixture.
It's possible we could see Norgaard, Merino, and Eze take the midfield roles. Gabriel Martinelli and Noni Madueke are set to slot in as wingers, replacing Bukayo Saka and Leandro Trossard.
Viktor Gyokeres has failed to adapt to life in England. The prolific striker has failed to score a goal in open play in ten consecutive games. This matchup presents a perfect opportunity for the Swedish international to end his goal drought.
Portsmouth - Arsenal Key Points
- Portsmouth have seen each of their last two matches end with over 2.5 goals.
- Arsenal have scored three or more goals in two of their last three matches.
- Portsmouth have lost their last five matches against Arsenal.
- Arsenal have seen two of their last three matches across all competitions end with over 2.5 goals.
- Arsenal are riding a three-match away winning streak.
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Our Portsmouth vs Arsenal Prediction
Portsmouth have a long list of injuries at the moment. They take on a Premier League outfit that could make life difficult for them in this impending encounter.
Arsenal are still a threat even if Mikel Arteta heavily rotates his side. The Gunners have won 14 of their last 22 matches against Portsmouth. Notably, they have avoided defeat in each of those encounters against this opponent. They are riding a three-match winning streak in this fixture and have seen the over 2.5 goal bet land in two instances. Our Portsmouth vs Arsenal prediction: Arsenal to win and over 2.5 goals.
Portsmouth vs Arsenal Alternative Predictions
Both teams to score - No
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Portsmouth Arsenal
| Portsmouth vs Arsenal | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth wins | 12.5 | 23 | +84.0% |
| Draw | 6.1 | 8.9 | +45.9% |
| Arsenal wins | 1.24 | 1.17 | -5.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Arsenal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 5.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 80.6% and is now 85.5% (4.8%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
