Leipzig vs St. Pauli Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Leipzig need a win to confirm their third-place finish in the 2025-26 Bundesliga campaign as they face a relegation-threatened St Pauli on matchday 33. This match on Saturday in Leipzig between the 3rd-placed Red Bulls and the 17th-placed ‘Neighbourhood Kickers’ is likely to continue the home team’s recent strong home form with our prediction of a Leipzig win and over 2.5 goals.
With 62 points (W19, D5, L8), Leipzig have a four-point lead over the three teams below them with two more rounds to go. St Pauli’s 26 points (W6, D8, L18) put them only marginally behind the relegation play-off spot and six points outside automatic safety.
Leipzig were thrashed 4-1 away at Leverkusen last weekend, ending their five-game winning run in the Bundesliga. They are still favourites to finish third in the division, as a win here would be enough to guarantee that.
Their strong home form is an indicator, as Leipzig have four wins in a row at this venue.
St Pauli lost 2-1 at home against Mainz last weekend, extending their winless run to eight Bundesliga matches (D3, L5). They are more likely to finish in the bottom three, and so the target could be to finish in the relegation playoff spot.
Even their away form makes a win unlikely, as the visitors have lost six of their last eight league trips.
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Leipzig v St. Pauli Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.38 | 5.6 | 7.6 |
|
|
1.28 | 6.05 | 9.6 |
|
|
1.32 | 5.5 | 8.5 |
|
|
1.44 | 4.33 | 6.5 |
|
|
1.28 | 6 | 9 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Leipzig and St. Pauli?
Our prediction for the Leipzig vs St. Pauli match is: Leipzig wins and over 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 09/05/2026 between Leipzig and St. Pauli in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 66.04% for a win of Leipzig against St. Pauli with odds of 1.44 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Leipzig vs St. Pauli is 25.12% with odds of 6.4 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 8.85% chance ⭐ for a win of St. Pauli vs Leipzig with odds of 9.6 at Melbet.
Leipzig - St. Pauli Prediction and Best Odds:
| Leipzig St. Pauli Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Leipzig wins | 66.04% | 1.44 at Bet365 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.15% | 1.4 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score: No | 52.08% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Leipzig/Leipzig | 36.6% | 2.1 at Bet365 |
Leipzig vs St. Pauli Form
Leipzig and St. Pauli's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
65 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | +19 |
|
18
|
26 | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -31 |
Leipzig and St. Pauli Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
15 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
15 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
1 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Bundesliga
25 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
17 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
5 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Bundesliga
17 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
8 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
5 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
13 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
3 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
Leipzig vs St. Pauli Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
27 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
9 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Oct 2024 - DFB Pokal
22 Sept 2024 - Bundesliga
Leipzig against St. Pauli Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 3 - 2 - 2
Substitutes
P. Gulacsi
DefenderE. Bitshiabu
B. Henrichs
L. Klostermann
M. Finkgrafe
N. Seiwald
J. Bakayoko
A. Nusa
C. Harder
B. Voll
DefenderF. Stevens
H. Wahl
T. Hara
M. Rasmussen
D. Sinani
A. Ceesay
Missing players
L. Zingerle
MidfielderE. Banzuzi
V. Gebel
ForwardS. Suleiman
S. Spari
DefenderK. Mets
M. Saliakas
J. Robatsch
MidfielderM. Pereira Lage
J. Sands
R. Jones
Most goals and assists
Leipzig
St. Pauli
C. Baumgartner
(13 Goals)
D. Sinani
(5 Goals)
D. Raum
(7 Assists)
, 
Y. Diomande
(7 Assists)
J. Fujita
(3 Assists)
Leipzig - St. Pauli Key Points
- Leipzig have an average of 6.0 shots on target per match this season, with only Bayern having a better average.
- Leipzig’s home matches this Bundesliga season averaged 3.56 goals per game.
- Leipzig won their last four home league games.
- St Pauli lost six of their last eight Bundesliga away games.
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Our Leipzig vs St. Pauli Prediction
The reverse fixture ended in a 1-1 draw, and if this outing produces another such result, it could be a big boost for St Pauli. With only three points separating the last three teams, it is increasingly looking like qualifying for the relegation playoff spot is the way to safety. Leipzig, on the other hand, will be gunning for a win that would confirm their third-place finish and guarantee Champions League action for next season.
Going by how Leipzig’s matches are playing out lately, our Leipzig vs St. Pauli prediction is Leipzig wins and over 2.5.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Leipzig St. Pauli
| Leipzig vs St. Pauli | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leipzig wins | 1.44 | 1.44 | 0% |
| Draw | 4.33 | 6.4 | +47.8% |
| St. Pauli wins | 6.5 | 9.6 | +47.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Leipzig is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have not changed since opening
- The probability of this result was 69.4% and is now 69.4% (0.0%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
