Italy - Serie A
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Serie A Predictions
The first Derby della Capitale of the season – the Rome derby – between Lazio and Roma will be played at Stadio Olimpico on Saturday. This is matchday four of the 2025-26 Italian Serie A season between the 12th-placed Biancocelesti and the sixth-placed Giallorossi. Our prediction is that the two rivals are going to keep it tight, with under 2.5 goals a likely result.
All six matches featuring the two clubs this season have produced results, but Lazio have two losses and one win, while Roma have two wins. Although form goes out of the window when these sides meet, it is the red half of the city that will be more confident of what they bring to this game than the blue half.
That shouldn’t be a precursor for success, and both sides are likely to keep it tight on goals. The recent history between the clubs also indicates that goals are expected to be scarce. Will that be the case once again when the teams meet this weekend? Is the referee going to be tested in another hotly contested fixture? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for Lazio v Roma Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.8 | 3.1 | 2.63 |
|
|
2.88 | 3.1 | 2.63 |
|
|
2.8 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
|
|
2.9 | 3 | 2.6 |
|
|
2.9 | 3.05 | 2.55 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Lazio and Roma?
Our prediction for the Lazio vs Roma match is: under 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 21/09/2025 between Lazio and Roma in Serie A :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 32.1% for a win of Lazio against Roma with odds of 2.91 at 22bet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Lazio vs Roma is 21.58% with odds of 3.4 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 46.31% chance ⭐ for a win of Roma vs Lazio with odds of 2.65 at 22bet.
Lazio vs Roma Form
Lazio and Roma's standings in the Serie A
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
|
12
|
3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Lazio and Roma Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Sep 2025 - Serie A
31 Aug 2025 - Serie A
24 Aug 2025 - Serie A
16 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Aug 2025 - Serie A
16 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
25 May 2025 - Serie A
10 May 2025 - Serie A
28 Apr 2025 - Serie A
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Sep 2025 - Serie A
24 Aug 2025 - Serie A
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
30 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
18 May 2025 - Serie A
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Sep 2025 - Serie A
30 Aug 2025 - Serie A
23 Aug 2025 - Serie A
16 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
6 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Sep 2025 - Serie A
23 Aug 2025 - Serie A
16 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
31 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
18 May 2025 - Serie A
4 May 2025 - Serie A
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2025 - Serie A
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
6 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
25 May 2025 - Serie A
Lazio vs Roma Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
13 Apr 2025 - Serie A
5 Jan 2025 - Serie A
6 Apr 2024 - Serie A
10 Jan 2024 - Coppa Italia
12 Nov 2023 - Serie A
19 Mar 2023 - Serie A
Lazio - Roma: Form Analysis
Lazio start the round with three points (W1, L2) and only two above the relegation zone, although it’s too early to put a marker. They were beaten 1-0 away at Sassuolo in their last league game, making it a second occasion this league campaign that they failed to score.
The lone seasonal win for Lazio came in a 4-0 thumping of Verona at this venue, but that was a rare result. The hosts hadn’t won in seven league home fixtures before that, drawing six and losing one.
Six of Lazio’s last eight home league games were scoring draws!
Roma were beaten 1-0 at this venue last weekend by Torino, bringing an end to their positive start to the season. They won on matchdays one and two by the same scoreline, 1-0, against Bologna and Pisa.
Technically this is an away game, but Roma come here with an impressive record at this venue. The loss to Torino ended a run of four consecutive wins in Serie A, three of which have also come by a 1-0 scoreline!
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Lazio vs Roma last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Missing players
Patric
S. Gigot
MidfielderM. Lazzari
M. Vecino
N. Rovella
ForwardT. Castellanos
L. Bailey
P. Dybala
Lazio & Roma Squad Analysis
Lazio will be without Manuel Lazzari, and the hosts will be sweating over the fitness of Nicolo Rovella and Valentin Castellanos. The Argentine forward will be a crucial presence, as he has one goal and two assists to his name already this season.
If Castellanos doesn’t recover in time, Lazio will have to change their focal point in the 4-3-3 formation. Behind him it would be a definite change, as Rovella is set to be replaced by Danilo Cataldi.
Matias Soule could become just the third Roma player to score in his first two derbies!
That’s a nice little record on offer for the Argentine striker who scored in the 1-1 draw in April. Roma took the field in either a 3-4-2-1 or 3-5-2 formation in their matches, giving them tactical flexibility.
Gasperini is likely to stick to 3-4-2-1 here, which may mean a run on the flanks for Soule with Evan Ferguson playing as the lone striker. The only injury absence for the Romans will be Paulo Dybala.
Most goals and assists
Lazio
Roma
M. Zaccagni
(1 Goals)
, 
M. Guendouzi
(1 Goals)
, 
T. Castellanos
(1 Goals)
, 
B. Dia
(1 Goals)
Wesley
(1 Goals)
,
M. Soule
(1 Goals)
T. Castellanos
(2 Assists)
E. Ferguson
(1 Assists)
Lazio and Roma Stats in Serie A
Lazio - Roma Key Points
- Lazio failed to score in two of their three league games this season.
- All three Roma’s league matches this season produced exactly one goal each time.
- Five of Lazio’s last seven home league matches have all returned under 2.5 goals.
- In 12 of Roma’s last 14 league matches, there have been two or fewer goals scored.
- The last seven derbies between Lazio and Roma in all competitions produced fewer than three goals.
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Our Lazio vs Roma Prediction
Lazio and Roma are separated by just three points ahead of this round, but there’s so much to read beyond those numbers. Lazio have failed to score in two of their matches and went on to lose those, while Roma were able to nudge their opponents in two games with a solitary goal. Even the recent record between these teams suggests goals could come at a premium in this context.
Both teams are unlikely to let loose their defensive cords, and that’s why our Lazio vs Roma prediction is under 2.5.
Lazio vs Roma - Other Interesting Predictions
Draw
Leave the form book out of the window is what they say when these two teams meet. There’s so much passion for both Lazio and Roma that they wouldn’t want to lose out to their bitter rivals. The latest derby ended in a 1-1 draw in April, and don’t be surprised if the score repeats here. Back a draw as the result.
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Lazio vs Roma match : Frequently asked questions
The Lazio vs Roma Italian Serie A match will be shown live on DAZN UK in England. In Italy, the broadcasters are DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia214, and DAZN Zona.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our Italian Serie A Livescore page!
The Derby della Capitale (or the Derby of the capital city) is also called ‘The Rome Derby’ and is the local football derby in Rome, Italy. It is considered to be one of the fiercest intra-city derbies in Italy and is regarded as one of the greatest and most hotly contested derbies in Europe, if not the world!
The football-frenzy city of Rome is usually divided in loyalties between the two sets of fans. The colours that the two teams wear also bear a lot of significance. Lazio’s traditional sky blue and white are about the ancient Hellenic legacy of Rome. Their colours earn the side their nickname of "I Biancocelesti", which means "The White and Sky Blues", or "Le Aquile" ("The Eagles"), which is the club mascot.
Roma wear the traditional red and gold, which are the official colours of the city and earned them the nickname “I Giallorossi”, which means “The Yellow and Reds”.
The two clubs met for the very first time on the 8th of December 1929. The sparks that flew in that first game ignited a flame – well, not literally – that has lasted nearly a century. Each subsequent match between the two clubs only adds more passion to the context!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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