Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins Prediction & Betting Tips - NFL

Prediction published on 11/01/2024, 20:10  by Matthew Newman | Modified on 12/01/2024 at 15:06 in NFL Prediction

The 11-6 Miami Dolphins head to the 11-6 Kansas City Chiefs for a playoff game in the early hours of Sunday morning. The Chiefs are the defending champions, making the Super Bowl in three of the last four seasons but they have been a long way short of that level in the second half of this campaign. They were 7-2 going into their bye week but went just 4-4 afterwards, three of those losses coming here at Arrowhead. The last two games were both wins, at home over the Cincinnati Bengals and then with a lot of rested starters at the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs are 9-2 at home in the playoffs over the last five seasons so they have plenty of experience to fall back on. Perhaps now that they are back in the playoffs and into the business part of the season they will be able to step up their performances offensively. They do not play the Dolphins often, just four times in the last 10 seasons with all wins going the way of the Chiefs. That includes a 21-14 win in November in their final game before the bye week when they were 21-0 up at halftime and then coasted.

The weather could be an interesting factor in this one with freezing conditions forecast. The Dolphins play in the same division as the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills so they are capable of playing in the cold which will be needed with -14c on the forecast. If it goes down that far, it will become the coldest game in the Dolphins' history, that record currently at -12.2c. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is yet to win when the temperature is below 7c so these are going to be very testing conditions. He is 0-4 in those games so it is a small enough sample size and he only started in the league in 2020 so is still finding his stride. Tyreek Hill is back in Kansas, the team where he spent the first six years of his career. In the week nine game, he was targeted 10 times, catching eight for a total of 61 yards. It was his worst yards-per-reception performance of the season, something that he would surely love to put right in the playoffs. The Dolphins were 4-4 on the road in the regular season, their wins coming to teams who combined for a 20-48 record this season. They will need their best road performance of the campaign here.