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NFL Predictions & Betting tips

Find our free predictions for betting on the NFL 2022/23, as well as tips and forecasts for each upcoming matchday. Full information for your sports bets.

NFL 2022/23 predictions and free betting tips

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In this article we’ll take a look at the 2022/23 NFL season, the schedule, important teams and players, odds and best bets. We’ve got all your NFL action covered here with an in-depth look at the USA’s most popular sport as well as some winning betting strategies that can have an impact on your ROI come the end of the season. 

NFL Season Structure

The National Football League has seen steady growth around the world and remains the most popular sport in the United States. Its events, especially the Super Bowl, attract some of the highest sports betting action of the year. The league is composed of 32 teams from across the United States which are separated into two conferences: the American Football Conference (commonly referred to as the AFC) and the National Football Conference (NFC). The regular season consists of 18 game weeks that sees each team playing a total of 17 games which includes one off-week (referred to as a bye-week). The majority of games take place on Sunday but a usual NFL schedule would see one Thursday game and one Monday game as well. The NFL regular season officially kicks-off in the beginning of September after a few weeks of non-competitive pre-season games for each team.

Upon the conclusion of the regular season, the 14 top teams (seven from each conference) compete in the playoffs which is a single-elimination tournament structure that begins in the middle of January. The teams are matched up based on their regular season record and subsequent seeding, which sees the top team from each conference earn a bye-week in the first round and progress automatically to the second round of the playoffs. In total, each conference has three rounds to determine the two teams that will face-off in the Super Bowl, the league’s championship game which is played at a predetermined stadium on the second Sunday of February.
This differs from most other sports such as football and basketball, whose playoff matches can see multiple legs or a best of seven series. The structure makes the NFL postseason one of the most exciting and drama-filled sporting events of the year as even the league’s best team can be sent packing due to a bad day at the office.

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What to expect in the 2022/23 NFL season

NFL betting tips

An exciting end to the 2021/22 NFL season saw the star-studded Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl LVI and claim their first championship since the 1999/2000 season. The Rams overcame the surprise Cincinnati Bengals, who had odds upward of 200/1 across many of the internet’s top online sportsbooks to become champions before the season started, by a close score of 23-20 on their home soil of SoFi Field. The Rams will now attempt to become only the seventh team to win back-to-back Super Bowls and the first since the 2004 Patriots when they kick-off their title defense against the Buffalo Bills on September 8th. Savvy salary cap work by the front office combined with smart drafting in the later rounds of the NFL draft and player contract structures that benefit the team mean the Rams were able to retain a number of important pieces from last season’s title winning team. Quarterback Matthew Stafford returns as well as wide receiver Cooper Kupp and defensive monster Aaron Donald, three of the very best at their respective positions in all of football. 

Standing in the Rams’ way are the familiar faces of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, who are arguably the three biggest names currently in the sport. The Bucs, Packers and Chiefs will all be in the discussion for the 2023 Super Bowl title and currently make up three of the top four oddsmakers’ favorites to win it all. You can check out a full list of NFL futures while taking advantage of some of the best sign-up bonuses in the industry through reputable betting sites such as Bet365 and WilliamHill by following the links provided. 

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The NFL’s Brightest Stars

There will be plenty of focus and attention placed on the Tampa Bay Bucs, Super Bowl LV winners in 2021, who won only their second Super Bowl in franchise history in what was Tom Brady’s first season with the team. After so many successful years in New England which saw Brady win six Super Bowl trophies and three MVP titles while a member of the Pats, Brady will be hoping to add one more Super Bowl title to his illustrious career and bring his total up to eight as he enters his 23rd pro season. What is so captivating about Brady’s story, who is widely considered to be the greatest player to ever do it, is the seemingly winning battle he is waging against the undefeated Father Time. It is unprecedented in this league to still be competing at this age, much less at an elite level like Brady, in a position other than kicker or punter. These storylines make Brady must-see-TV whenever he steps on the field and the Bucs will certainly be out for revenge after exiting the 2022 playoffs in the Divisional Round to the eventual champion Rams.

In the north of the country, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will be looking to return to the summit of the NFL after last lifting the trophy over a decade ago in 2010. The at times controversial Rodgers has aged like fine wine and is coming off two of his best ever statistical seasons at the ripe old age of 38. Rodgers’ 2020/21 season in particular was extraordinary, throwing for 48 touchdowns with only five interceptions, giving him the second-best passer rating for a single season of all-time at 121.2, with the top-spot also belonging to Rodgers for his 2011 season. After winning the last two MVP awards, can the mercurial Rodgers make it three in a row and win the prestigious honor for a record-tying fifth time in his career? 

Patrick Mahomes and the high-powered Chiefs offense, one of the best the NFL has ever seen, will be looking for another Super Bowl appearance after falling just short in the AFC Championship game to the Bengals by a score of 27-24 last season. The Chiefs recovered after a slow start to pick up steam heading into the playoffs and were almost able to parlay their momentum into what would have been a third consecutive Super Bowl appearance. With offensive mastermind Andy Reid at the helm, the Chiefs will once again be looking to overwhelm teams with their vast array of attacking weapons.

High-Profile Games of the 2022/23 NFL Season

NFL high profile games

The first of the 18 week NFL regular season kicks off on the 8th of September and runs until the 9th of January with the playoffs then starting on the 14th of January. Super Bowl LVII is scheduled for the 12th of February and will take place at the Arizona Cardinals’ home stadium of State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. 

With 272 games on the docket for the coming season, let’s take a look at some of the more notable games on the NFL schedule and discuss the teams and storylines involved. Remember that you can check out all of the betting lines for the NFL’s biggest games by signing up with some of the industry’s top online sportsbooks. Registering is simple and takes a matter of minutes until you can get into the action. Follow the links provided in the article for special bonuses and promotional offers.

Week 1-1: Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams, September 8th, Thursday Night Football

The first game on the NFL schedule for the 2022/23 season kicks off the new campaign in style with the defending champions hosting the current oddsmakers' Super Bowl betting favorites in the Buffalo Bills. A game that has the potential to turn into a shootout with the huge amount of offensive talent on the field as the loaded LA Rams try to slow down one of the MVP favorites in Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Three time all-pro Von Miller also suits up against his old team after making the switch to the Bills in the offseason. 

Week 1-2: Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks, September 12th, Monday Night Football

Star quarterback Russell Wilson suits up at Lumen Field for the first time on a team other than the Seattle Seahawks. The nine-time pro bowler takes his new Denver Bronco teammates into Seattle to battle the team that drafted him and the organization that he led to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances and a title in 2013/14. 

Week 2: Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs, September 15th, Thursday Night Football

Should be in store for another offensive showcase between one of the NFL’s very best in the quarterback position with Patrick Mahomes and one of the league’s brightest young talents in Chargers QB Justin Herbet. These two put on a show last season, playing two highly competitive games that saw a total of 116 points scored between the two teams with each game decided by six points.

Week 3: Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Bucs, Sunday, September 25th

Two favorites for the Super Bowl and two of the greatest quarterbacks ever, both still performing at an MVP level. It's always a marquee matchup when Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady face off. For as long as both legendary QBs have been in the NFL, they’ve actually only faced off five times, in large part due to them competing in different conferences for the majority of their careers. Brady holds a 4-1 advantage over his competitive rival with their last meeting coming in the NFC Championship game in the 2020/21 playoffs which the Bucs would go on to win 31-26.

Week 4: Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Bucs, October 2nd, Sunday Night Football

A rematch of Super Bowl LV and what has become a bit of a “passing of the guard” type of match over the last few seasons. A massive 19-year age difference sees the greatest ever QB in Brady up against the 26-year-old Mahomes, who is already being labeled as a future great of the quarterback position after an unbelievable first five years in the league. This matchup also sees an interesting coaching matchup between the offensive genius of Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and the Bucs head coach Todd Bowles, the former who was able to neutralize Mahomes to great effect in their Super Bowl matchup when he was defensive coordinator of Tampa Bay.

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Week 8: San Francisco 49ers at LA Rams, Sunday, October 30th

A rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game in which the Rams edged by a score of 20-17. It certainly wouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone if these two met in the playoffs again as the 49ers continue to be a consistently solid team and the Rams will be in the conversation as the defending champs. A fascinating matchup from a coaching standpoint as well as two coaches that have held the “prodigy” label face off in the Niners’ Kyle Shanahan and the Rams’ Sean McVay. Shanahan holds a 7-4 record against his close friend in their 11 head-to-head coaching matchups. 

Week 10: Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers, Sunday, November 13th

Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy returns to Green Bay where he served as the head coach from 2006 to 2018 and led the Pack to a Super Bowl title along with Aaron Rodgers in the 2010/11 season – the sole title of each of their careers. Dallas, as always, has massive expectations on them by owner Jerry Jones to return to the Super Bowl. Can they make it to the promised land for the first time since 1996 with Dak Prescott leading them?

Week 12: Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions, Thanksgiving, November 24th

An NFL tradition sees the Lions playing their annual home game on the US holiday of Thanksgiving against the Bills. Not much has been expected of the Lions for awhile, even less so this year after a 3-13-1 record last season. Josh Allen and the high-powered Bills offense come into town as and are the preseason Super Bowl favorites but will they still hold that title by the time week 12 rolls around with two-thirds of the regular season in the books? 

Week 13: Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, December 4th

An enticing matchup between two of the league’s most exciting quarterbacks in the Broncos’ Russell Wilson and the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson. The Broncos should be contenders this season with the elite level of QB play that Wilson provides while the Ravens have been knocking on the Super Bowl door for seemingly years now. Can the 2019/20 MVP Lamar Jackson elevate his play just a bit more to lift his side to Baltimore’s first Super Bowl appearance since winning it all in the 2012/13 season? 

Week 16: Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots, Christmas Eve, December 24th

The Bengals caught lightning in a bottle last season, picking up steam at the perfect time as they entered into the playoffs to ultimately win the AFC. Led by young quarterback Joe Burrow, who is quickly becoming one of the best QBs in the league after a phenomenal 2021/22 season, the Bengals will face a stiff challenge against the Patriots and one of the best defensive minds to ever coach in Patriots head coach Bill Belichick who has a daunting record when facing young quarterbacks for the first time. 

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Notable Statistics From the Previous Season

NFL betting tips statistics

The Tampa Bay Bucs and the Green Bay Packers ended the 2021/22 NFL season tied with the best record in the league with 13 wins and four defeats each. In the AFC conference it was the Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans who shared the best record with 12 wins and five losses each. The full list of division winners from the 2021/22 season reads as follows:

  • AFC East: Buffalo Bills 11-6
  • AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs 12-5
  • AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals 10-7
  • AFC South: Tennessee Titans 12-5
  • NFC East: Dallas Cowboys 12-5
  • NFC West: LA Rams 12-5
  • NFC North: Green Bay Packers 13-4
  • NFC South: Tampa Bay Bucs: 13-4

In terms of individual team performance it was the Dallas Cowboys who finished the previous season as the highest scoring team with 530 total points scored over their 17 regular season games. Rounding out the rest of the top five were the Tampa Bay Bucs in second with 511 points, the Buffalo Bills in third with 483 points, the Chiefs in fourth-place with 480 points and the Chargers in fifth with 474 points.

On the defensive side of the ball the Bills led all teams with the best defensive record in the league, giving up only 289 points all season. The New England Patriots were the second stingiest defense with 303 points allowed and the Broncos, Saints and Bucs round out the top five with 322, 335, and 353 points allowed, respectively. Next, we’ll take a deeper look at the individual stars of the 2021/22 NFL season and what their numbers could mean in terms of any potential NFL futures bets on individual player performance. 

The Cowboys were also the NFL’s best team against the spread, covering an impressive 13 of their 17 regular season games. The top five NFL teams against the spread in the 2021/22 season is as follows:

(records are shown as Win/Loss/Draw) 

  • 1st: Dallas Cowboys 13-4
  • 2nd: Green Bay Packers 12-5
  • 3rd: Detroit Lions 11-6
  • 4th: Buffalo Bills 9-6-2
  • 5th: Tennessee Titans 10-7

The most surprising of these numbers is the Detroit Lions, who managed only three wins straight up in the regular season and were one of the league’s worst teams. A perfect representation of why point spread betting is the most popular and one of the most exciting NFL betting markets. You can check out the point spread on the Lions when they take on the Eagles in the first game of the new season through sportsbooks such as Betfair and Unibet. Next we have the bottom five teams against the spread in the previous season: 

  • 32nd: Carolina Panthers 5-12
  • 31st: Jacksonville Jaguars 5-12
  • 30th: Chicago Bears 6-11
  • 29th: New York Jets 6-11
  • 28th: New York Giants 6-11

It’s a good idea to keep these statistics in mind heading into the new season as it gives you a good idea of which teams are on the stronger and weaker side. Of course, the NFL Draft and free agency means that a bad team can quickly turn their fortunes around in the offseason so it’s important to keep track of player moves and team signings.

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Individual Player Performance

As previously mentioned, Aaron Rodgers won the MVP honors for the last two consecutive seasons and is only one shy of tying the legendary Peyton Manning who has won the award five times. The Green Bay Packers quarterback finished the 2021/22 season throwing for 4,115 yards with 37 touchdowns and only four interceptions despite missing a game. Rodgers is arguably the best ever quarterback when it comes to limiting his interceptions thrown and his 1.3% interception rate per 100 passes is the lowest of all-time. The 38-year-old led the Pack to a 13-3 record but would ultimately disappoint in the playoffs, crashing out in the Divisional Round to the 49ers with Rodgers being held to only 225 yards while failing to throw a touchdown in a 13-10 loss at Lambeau Field. 

Despite being the reigning MVP and having won the last two in a row, Rodgers doesn’t enter the new season as the MVP betting favorite. The odds can differ somewhat depending on the sportsbook you use, such as Vbet offering odds of 17/2 on Rodgers winning MVP while Bwin offers odds of 10/1, but the general consensus sees the Green Bay quarterback come in at around the fourth-favorite to take down the award for a third straight year. 

Just ahead of Aaron Rodgers in the 2022/23 NFL MVP betting odds is Tom Brady. The seemingly ageless wonder showed no signs of slowing down last season and posted one of his best statistical seasons of his more than two-decade spanning NFL career. Brady threw for a career best 5,316 yards while managing 43 touchdowns and 12 interceptions en route to an 13-4 record with the Tampa Bay Bucs. The 15-time Pro Bowler’s season would also ultimately end in disappointment as the Bucs fell 30-27 to the LA Rams in the NFC Divisional Round of the playoffs. Brady had a legitimate case for winning his fourth MVP award last season and would actually end up finishing second in the voting, receiving 10 votes to Rodgers’ 39. The majority of the top betting sites have Brady as the third-favorite to win the award this season with odds of around 8/1 to 9/1. 

The Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen comes in as the oddsmakers’ favorite to take down his first MVP award at odds of 7/1 while the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes is the second-favorite at around 8/1. Mahomes, who won the award in 2018, is coming off somewhat of an off-year by his lofty standards. The Texas Tech product threw for 4,839 yards with 37 touchdowns and a career worst 13 interceptions in the 2021/22 season. It would certainly come as no surprise if the supremely talented Mahomes was able to bounce back in a big way but the loss of influential wide receiver Tyreek Hill could prove to be a significant blow to his chances. The betting favorite, Josh Allen, had a very similar statistical year to Mahomes last season, throwing for 4406 passing yards with 36 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. The big question will be if he can improve even more on his already impressive numbers while leading his team to the top seed in the AFC, which would give the 26-year-old a great chance at winning the award.

Some other players to keep an eye on will be Colts running-back Jonathan Taylor, who finished last season as far-and-away the leading rusher in the league racking up an impressive 1,811 yards – over 500 yards more than second-place Nick Chubb of the Browns who finished with 1,259. Taylor understandably comes into the new season as the betting favorite to retain his crown with odds of around 9/2 but the wrecking ball Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans is back fit and will be a serious contender to dethrone Taylor. Henry famously became only the eighth running-back ever to break the 2,000 yard mark in a single season in 2020 and the first to do it since Adrian Peterson in 2012. He comes in as the oddsmakers’ second-favorite to lead the league with odds of 5/1 on WilliamHill

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NFL Betting Strategies

NFL betting tips

The NFL’s most popular betting market is undoubtedly point spread betting. This involves each team receiving or laying a certain amount of points determined by the oddsmakers’ that is to represent the difference in quality between the two teams. Also referred to as the handicap, point spread betting allows for much weaker teams to still attract good action for bookmakers when coming up against a much stronger team. There are a few important factors to take note of with point spread betting specifically related to the NFL.

Point Spread Betting on the NFL

Not all spreads are created equal. Due to the scoring system in the NFL where a touchdown is awarded six points (followed by an extra point attempt for a possible total of seven), a field goal is worth three points, and the less common safety is worth two points, there exists certain key numbers in NFL point spreads and other less important numbers sometimes referred to as “dead” numbers. In order to maximize your NFL betting profits, it's vital to understand the different strategies involving these numbers and how you can take advantage of them to put yourself in the best position to make money in this exciting sport.

Most importantly, what are the key numbers? The primary key NFL point spread betting number is 3 points. The NFL sees its highest frequency of games decided by this margin and it’s quite common to see a number of different games every week either on a 3 point spread exactly or hovering around at +/-2.5 and +/-3.5. Next up, the second most common margin of victory in the NFL and the next key number is 7 points. Again, it’s not uncommon to see multiple 7 point spreads in a gameweek although this generally requires a decent-sized skill gap between the two teams. Those are the two most important key numbers and if you take only that information with you, you’ll be ahead of most of the general betting public. There are a few other numbers that pop up, sometimes considered key numbers although certainly less common than 3 and 7. The next most common margin of victory in the NFL is 6 points and can be considered a second-tier key number. 

Now, here is where it gets a bit tricky. The NFL introduced a rule change in the 2015 season which saw the distance required to kick the extra-point attempt after a touchdown pushed back from the two yard line to the 15 yard line. This has resulted in a universal drop of the success rate and the 2021/22 season actually saw the lowest conversion rate since 1979 at 92.5%. This has even resulted in an increase of two-point conversion attempts, where a team can forgo the kick and try to score the ball through a normal play from the two yard line, with coaches realizing that the kick is no longer a gimme point.  There has not been a huge shift towards this but two-point conversion attempts have risen to 11% which is up from around 9% in previous seasons. 

Of course, this has had an impact on the NFL spread betting market with the six-point margin of victory seeing an increase and the 10-point margin of victory seeing a slight decrease since the introduction of the extra-point conversion change. Below is a full look at the NFL winning margin percentage from the seasons of 2015-2019 with the updated extra-point conversion:

  • 3 point winning margin: 14.43%
  • 7 point margin: 9.89%
  • 6 point margin: 7.25%
  • 14 point margin: 5.74%
  • 10 point margin: 4.61% 
  • 1 point margin: 4.31%
  • 5 point margin: 4.31%
  • 2 point margin: 4.23% 
  • 4 point margin: 4.15%

As we can see, the 3 point spread remains the most important with 7 the clear number two and 6 seeing a decent rise in frequency in the past few seasons. So, we’ve identified the key numbers, how do we go about using that information to make sure we’re on the right side of the action as often as possible? The oddsmakers know these key numbers and will often position their lines around them. Oftentimes, you’ll see a line of +/-3.5 or +/-7.5; this is called a hook and is often the difference between winning, losing or pushing a bet. If an oddsmaker puts out a spread of -3 it will often take either a lot of action on one side or a key injury to a player for it to move off of the key number. This is when having the option to bet on a number of the web’s top online sportsbooks can really pay dividends to your bottom line. While it’s not incredibly common, you will find instances throughout the season where one sportsbook may have a hook on a line while the other doesn’t. An example can be: Melbet offering -7 for the Chiefs to beat the Dolphins while Pinup-bet offers the Chiefs at -6.5. Getting this hook is significant as a sports bettor and is a prime example of the advantages that signing up for multiple sites provides.

Teaser Bets on NFL Games

We can apply our newly gained knowledge of key numbers in NFL point spread betting to a popular and quickly growing market in NFL betting called a teaser bet. A teaser is similar to an accumulator except instead of getting an increased payout through the odds, you receive beneficial points onto each team's spread. The bet would then require each leg to cover the spread in order to payout with odds affected by the points taken in the teaser and the amount of legs (or individual games) involved. The most common form of teasers in the NFL involve 6 or 6.5 points involving two teams with odds are generally around 1.83 to 1.77 on sites such as Bet365 and ShangriLa. We’ll look at an example below to get a better idea of how it works:

Week one in the NFL has the defending champion Rams as +2.5 underdogs against the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills. As we can see, we aren’t getting the key number of +3 on the Rams which makes backing them a much less attractive proposition. However, this line of +2.5 is perfect for a six point teaser as it brings the spread through the two most important key numbers of 3 and 7. The next leg for our two-team teaser is the San Francisco 49ers who are taking on the Chicago Bears. The Niners open as -7 point favorites over the Bears which certainly is not a bad line as a seven point win would result in a push. Having this as our second leg pushes the spread down to -1, requiring essentially just a 49ers win and passing again through the two key numbers of 3 and 7. Remember, a teaser requires all legs to win in order to payout. So, in our example both the Rams and 49ers would have to cover their respective spreads to win our teaser bet. The Rams winning and the Niners losing would result in a full loss.

The last key piece of information related to teasers is to never tease a point spread through 0. For example, you have the Cowboys at -3 and while it may look appealing to get them to +3, you are essentially wasting points in your tease by having to pass over 0 and the largely dead numbers of -1 and +1. 

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Key Information Before Placing an NFL Bet

Teams regularly release injury reports, make sure you check both the team you're interested in betting on and the opponent as injuries in certain positions can have a major impact on the betting line. For example, the Green Bay Packers might be -7 point favorites over the Minnesota Vikings at home but an injury to star quarterback Aaron Rodgers could easily see that number fall to a Pickem or even as far as to make the Packers slight underdogs.

Also be sure to take into account the importance of the particular game you're interested in betting on. The last week of the season often sees teams resting their key players before the start of the playoffs if they have the division or a strong seeding locked up. This of course would result in a completely different betting line than if the normal starters were to play. 

Analyzing different teams and their strengths and weaknesses can often pay dividends and provide your NFL betting with an extra edge. For example, last season the Bucs led the entire league in passing offense, racking up 5,383 yards through the air. You identify a matchup they have against the Baltimore Ravens, who struggled to contain opposition quarterbacks and ended the season with 4,986 passing yards allowed – the worst mark in the league. This of course provides the Bucs with a huge advantage and is a piece of data that can be exploited in a number of ways. You could simply back the Bucs to win, knowing they’ll be dominant through the air, or you could target the Bucs individual team total over. A Tom Brady player prop could be an option, backing the legendary quarterback to have a big game whether through yards or touchdowns. Additionally, if you notice a matchup advantage that the other team may possess then a total game points over could be an excellent choice if the game looks like it’s going to result in a high-scoring shootout.

Always Compare the Odds!

Finally, a successful sports bettor must always have a firm grasp of the odds offered by the web’s leading online sportsbooks. Books can often differ in the odds provided for each event and each individual bet as well. A calculated bettor should look to take advantage of these deviations as they can sometimes even make the difference between a profitable bet and a losing bet in the long run. 

Bonuses also provide bettors with great opportunities to pad the bankroll and you should always be on the lookout for enticing sign-up offers. Bet365, for example, provides a very generous €200 welcome bonus with very reasonable rollover requirements. The great thing about these kinds of promotions is that online sportsbooks are constantly offering new deposit bonuses and other benefits to their users as the competition between different sites heats up. 

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Our Predictions

NFL predictions

Justin Herbet to win MVP

Betting odds: 11.00 WilliamHill

Arguably the league’s most exciting young quarterback talent, the LA Chargers Justin Herbert is our pick for the MVP award. The Eugene-born University of Oregon product took the NFL world by storm in the 2020/21 season, putting up 4,336 yards while throwing 31 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in his first season en route to the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Herbert showed almost freakish composure and poise in the pocket and you would swear you were looking at a grizzled 10-year veteran QB at first glance. The now 24-year-old Herbert would build on his rookie success, making his first Pro-Bowl in his second season after throwing for 5,014 yards with 38 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Herbert also posted the third-best QBR (quarterback rating) in the NFL at 65.6, behind only the legendary duo of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. If Justin Herbert continues on his current trajectory then we could very well be looking at the next MVP. 

Stefon Diggs most receiving yards

Betting odds: 15.00 Bet365

Sneakily good odds here on Diggs who should have another highly-productive year. The oddsmakers are clearly expecting a huge season from Diggs’ teammate Josh Allen, with the Bills quarterback the current betting favorite to take down the MVP award. The prime candidate to benefit from that is the 28-year-old Diggs who put up 1,225 yards on 103 catches with 10 touchdowns last season. The year before that saw Diggs haul in career highs in both receptions with 127 and receiving yards with 1,535. Diggs’ price of 14/1 put him at around the sixth-favorite for this award according to the most recent betting odds.

Jonathan Taylor most rushing yards

Betting odds: 5.50 Bwin

Taylor is an integral part of what the Colts do on offense and the team runs through the 23-year-old University of Wisconsin product. Indianapolis has even received criticism for a seemingly overreliance on the young running back. Expect more of the same from the Colts and Taylor in the 2022/23 season. If he can stay healthy then you’re certain to see his name amongst the leaders come the end of the season. Derrick Henry back and healthy for the Titans is the major threat to Taylor’s rushing crown. However, Henry is 28-years-old in a position that is dominated by young backs with fresh legs. It remains to be seen if Henry can return to the unstoppable force he was in years prior while Taylor is entering his prime years. 

San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC

Betting odds: 8.50 Vbet

San Francisco is renowned for their hard-nose defensive approach which has proven so successful for the team over recent years. Head coach Kyle Shananan is one of the brightest young minds in the game and always seems to find a way to get his team to play more than the sum of their parts. The big question for the 49ers this season is in regards to their recent quarterback change. Shanahan has stated that they have moved on from former QB Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance, the third-overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, will take over the reins. If Lance can produce at even a similar level to the at times highly scrutinized Garoppolo then the Niners could easily find themselves back in the NFC Championship game where they exited last season. However, Trey Lance clearly has a tremendous amount of upside and if the gamble pays off for San Fran and Lance is the player they think he can be, then we very well could be looking at the 49ers making another trip to the Super Bowl.

Detroit Lions season total over 6.5 wins

Betting odds: 1.77 Vbet

Lions fans have suffered for a long, long time but there is reason for optimism ahead of the new NFL campaign. Quarterback Jared Goff has received more than his share of criticism over the last few years but we do have to remember that he led his LA Rams team to the Super Bowl in 2018 and there is a good quarterback in there with the right pieces around him. Running back D'Andre Swift could be in for a breakout year after averaging a solid 4.3 yards per rush over his first two seasons and scoring 17 touchdowns already in his young two-year career. The offensive line has the potential to be one of the best in the league and should take a significant step forward as a unit this year.

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NFL Odds from the Major Bookmakers

NFL odds

How are NFL odds calculated?

As previously covered in the article, point spread betting is the largest and most popular NFL betting market. Oddsmakers use in depth calculations to come up with their spread numbers which generally involve many of the advanced statistics you can find on various sites. However, what is important to remember is that the odds, points totals, spreads, etc. are all created with the intention of attracting equal action on both sides of the bet. This allows the bookmakers to minimize their risk and guarantee a profit through the vig that exists when a bet is placed. 

Take an example of a big Monday Night Football game between the Tampa Bay Bucs and the Kansas City Chiefs. Monday Night always attracts increased action because it’s the last game of the schedule until Thursday rolls around to kick off the next week’s slate of games. In our hypothetical example we’ll say that both teams have been rolling through the season and have been putting up big point totals week in and week out. Naturally, most of the betting public will be aware of this and will be lining up to bet the over in the total points line. In these types of situations it’s important to remember that sportsbooks aren’t always necessarily putting out the most optimal betting line mathematically speaking but they are putting out the line that will benefit them the most.

In the above example, the bookmakers may come up with 54 points as the optimal betting line for the total points scored in the game. However, they will take into account that they are likely to receive increased action on the over if they put that number out which would increase the amount of liability that the sportsbook has as they would have lopsided action coming in. These factors would likely result in the sportsbook putting out a total that could reach as high as 57 or 58 points in their attempt to even out the action and entice more bettors to bet on the under. 

If you understand these situations as a bettor, you will be able to find additional value in spots such as our Bucs vs Chiefs example, where betting the under on a total of 57 or 58 would be the smart play. 

The Importance of Sportsbook Selection

Having a wide selection of sportsbooks to choose from will make you a more profitable bettor over the long run. Not all sportsbooks are created equal and many of them have their advantages and disadvantages. The leading online sportsbooks can vary significantly in the odds that they offer their users. Even if it’s a difference that appears small at first glance, such as the Bills at 1.80 odds to beat the Ravens on one sportsbook and odds of 1.95 on the other. If you were to bet each side 100 times at €10 each, this 0.15 change in the odds would be the difference between winning €800 and €950. 

Odds Comparison From Top Sportsbooks

Finally, let's compare some of the common NFL futures bets that are popular for punters to place before the season starts. We’ll compare odds from three of the leading sportsbooks at the moment in Bet365, WilliamHill and Vbet – all three that have excellent sign up bonuses which can be accessed simply by following the links provided. In this case we’ll only compare the top 14 team’s Super Bowl odds.

Super Bowl winner:

Teams

  • Bills
  • Bucs
  • Chiefs
  • Rams
  • Packers
  • Chargers
  • Broncos
  • 49ers
  • Ravens
  • Bengals
  • Cowboys    
  • Eagles
  • Colts
  • Browns

Bet365

  • 7.00
  • 8.00
  • 11.00
  • 12.00
  • 13.00
  • 15.00
  • 16.00
  • 16.00
  • 19.00
  • 19.00
  • 23.00
  • 23.00
  • 26.00
  • 29.00

WilliamHill

  • 7.00
  • 8.50
  • 11.00
  • 11.00
  • 11.00
  • 15.00
  • 17.00
  • 17.00
  • 19.00
  • 19.00
  • 19.00
  • 23.00
  • 26.00
  • 29.00

Vbet

  • 7.00
  • 8.00
  • 11.00
  • 11.00
  • 13.00
  • 15.00
  • 17.00
  • 17.00
  • 19.00
  • 19.00
  • 21.00
  • 26.00
  • 26.00
  • 31.00

Check out the latest NFL odds at Bet365

Our current NFL (the United-States - American Football) previews:

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NFL (the United-States - American Football): Best odds

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