Joao Fonseca vs Ignacio Buse Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Rio Open
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by Steve Ashfield | in Tennis Predictions
Five unseeded players will be in the Rio Open quarter-finals. Ignacio Buse is unseeded but has to beat third seed Joao Fonseca if he wants to make that number six. Can he win? Read our match prediction below.
Unseeded opposition will be faced in the last eight, either Matteo Berrettini or lucky loser Dusan Lajovic.
Joao Fonseca is playing only his third tournament of the year. After a first round exit in the Australian Open, he lost in round two to Alejandro Tabilo in Buenos Aires last week, a tournament he won last year. He's previously reached the quarter-finals of this outdoor clay court tournament two years ago.
The 19-year-old beat Thiago Monteiro 7-6 6-1 in round one and is 36th in the live rankings.
Ignacio Buse is making his Rio Open debut. The 21-year-old got off to a winning start with a three-sets victory over Igor Marcondes after losing the opening set. He also played in Buenos Aires last week and like Fonseca, he lost in round two.
Buse is up to a career-high 79th in the live rankings. Last year saw him win 49 matches on clay with two Challenger Tour titles won and a run to the last four of the ATP Tour event in Gastad. We tip Fonseca to win set one and the match.
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Joao Fonseca v Ignacio Buse Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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1.24 | 4.08 |
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1.25 | 3.98 |
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1.22 | 4.33 |
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1.23 | 3.85 |
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1.23 | 3.75 |
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Who will win the Joao Fonseca vs Ignacio Buse Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Joao Fonseca vs Ignacio Buse match is: Joao Fonseca wins set one and match.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Joao Fonseca vs Ignacio Buse game on 19/02/2026 of the current ATP Rio Open season:
- Joao Fonseca has a 60.59% chance to win against Ignacio Buse according to Betwinner ⭐ with the odds of 1.25.
- Ignacio Buse has a 39.41% probability of winning facing Joao Fonseca ⭐ with odds of 4.33 at Bet365.
Joao Fonseca vs Ignacio Buse Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Joao Fonseca has a 60.59 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Joao Fonseca | 60.59 % |
| Ignacio Buse | 39.41 % |
Joao Fonseca vs Ignacio Buse Form
Joao Fonseca and Ignacio Buse Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
17 Feb 2026 - ATP Rio Open
11 Feb 2026 - ATP Buenos Aires
19 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
29 Oct 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters
28 Oct 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters
26 Oct 2025 - Swiss Indoors ATP Basel
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
16 Feb 2026 - ATP Rio Open
12 Feb 2026 - ATP Buenos Aires
10 Feb 2026 - ATP Buenos Aires
11 Oct 2025 - Stockholm Open
24 Aug 2025 - ATP US Open
22 Aug 2025 - ATP US Open
Joao Fonseca - Ignacio Buse Key Points
- Fonseca is ranked 43 places above his opponent in the live rankings.
- Fonseca was a quarter-finalist here two years ago and won the 2025 Buenos Aires title last year.
- Buse had to come from a set down to win his first round match.
- In the last four matches won by Fonseca, he won the first set in three of them.
- Buse has lost the opening set in each of his three matches played this year.
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Our Joao Fonseca vs Ignacio Buse Prediction
No seeded players stand between Joao Fonseca and a first-ever Rio Open semi-final. The teenager has made a slow start to the new year and this is only his third tournament of the year. Round one saw him beat Thiago Monteiro in straight sets.
Ignacio Buse has been starting matches slowly this year, losing the opening set in each of his three matches played. He might find it difficult to play catch-up against Fonseca. Our Joao Fonseca v Ignacio Buse prediction is Joao Fonseca wins set one and match.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
