Europe - EuroBasket
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in EuroBasket Predictions
The betting gods might've just delivered the best value bet of the tournament so far as Slovenia faces Italy as the undergods in the FIBA Eurobasket Round of 16. Check out our best Italy vs Slovenia match prediction below.
The head-to-head swing totally in favor of Slovenia, as they've won all five of their last meetings against Italy dating back to 2013. More importantly, in competitive games outside friendlies, Slovenia has beaten Italy in their last two encounters while covering the -3.5 spread both times. That's the kind of dominance you can't ignore.
Slovenia's group stage comeback deserves serious respect. After losing their first two games, they won their last three matches to qualify, capping it off with a brilliant 106-96 victory over Israel. They faced a brutal group containing France, Israel, and Poland, yet still found a way through.
Italy's 89-54 demolition of Cyprus in their final group game looks impressive on paper, but they were heavy favorites in all four of their wins. When they faced serious opposition with Giannis in the lineup, Greece beat them 75-66. Slovenia comes in averaging 93.8 points per game compared to Italy's 79.2, and with Luka Doncic posting 32.4 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 8.4 assists, they have the star power to make the difference.
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The Best Betting Odds for Italy v Slovenia Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1.65 | 2.3 |
|
|
1.57 | 2.38 |
|
|
1.55 | 2.4 |
|
|
1.53 | 2.3 |
|
|
1.55 | 2.45 |
|
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Who will win the Italy vs Slovenia Basketball game?
Our prediction for the Italy vs Slovenia match is: Slovenia to win.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Italy vs Slovenia game on 07/09/2025 of the current EuroBasket season:
- Italy has a 47.2% chance to pick up the win against Slovenia according to Bet365 ⭐ with the odds of 1.65.
- There is a probability of 52.8% ⭐ for Slovenia to win vs Italy with odds of 2.45 at Unibet.
Italy vs Slovenia Form
Italy and Slovenia Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
4 Sep 2025 - EuroBasket
2 Sep 2025 - EuroBasket
31 Aug 2025 - EuroBasket
30 Aug 2025 - EuroBasket
28 Aug 2025 - EuroBasket
22 Aug 2025 - International Friendly Games
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
4 Sep 2025 - EuroBasket
2 Sep 2025 - EuroBasket
30 Aug 2025 - EuroBasket
14 Aug 2025 - International Friendly Games
9 Aug 2025 - International Friendly Games
2 Aug 2025 - International Friendly Games
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
31 Aug 2025 - EuroBasket
28 Aug 2025 - EuroBasket
22 Aug 2025 - International Friendly Games
21 Aug 2025 - International Friendly Games
20 Feb 2025 - European Championship, Qualification Group G
22 Nov 2024 - European Championship, Qualification Group G
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
4 Sep 2025 - EuroBasket
2 Sep 2025 - EuroBasket
31 Aug 2025 - EuroBasket
30 Aug 2025 - EuroBasket
28 Aug 2025 - EuroBasket
21 Aug 2025 - International Friendly Games
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
31 Aug 2025 - EuroBasket
28 Aug 2025 - EuroBasket
19 Aug 2025 - International Friendly Games
8 Aug 2025 - International Friendly Games
25 Nov 2024 - European Championship, Qualification Group G
1 Sep 2023 - Basketball World Cup
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
4 Sep 2025 - EuroBasket
2 Sep 2025 - EuroBasket
30 Aug 2025 - EuroBasket
21 Aug 2025 - International Friendly Games
16 Aug 2025 - International Friendly Games
15 Aug 2025 - International Friendly Games
Italy vs Slovenia Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
9 Sep 2023 - Basketball World Cup
Italy - Slovenia Key Points
- Slovenia have won all of their last five head-to-head meetings dating back to 2013.
- Outside friendlies, Slovenia have won the last two H2H encounters, covering the -3.5 spread in both games.
- Slovenia is averaging 93.8 points in this tournament compared to Italy's 79.2 points per game.
- Slovenia's lowest scoring game in the group stage was 86 points, while Italy managed only 66 against Greece and 67 against Spain.
- Luka Doncic is averaging 32.4 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 8.4 assists for Slovenia in this tournament.
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Our Italy vs Slovenia Prediction
The numbers don't lie when it comes to this matchup. Slovenia's perfect record against Italy speaks volumes, and their recent comeback shows they can deal with pressure quite nicely. Italy deserves credit for their group stage performance, but they were expected to beat all the teams they faced.
Slovenia survived a much tougher group and showed genuine championship character in their turnaround. With Doncic averaging over 32 points and the team scoring nearly 15 more points per game than Italy, they have both the historical edge and current form to advance to the quarterfinals. Hence, our Italy vs Slovenia prediction is Slovenia to win.
Use £/€50 free bets for the Italy vs. Slovenia game!
Are you planning to bet on the upcoming match between Italy and Slovenia? Why not take advantage of the free bets from Bet365? Use our promo code STYVIP1 and open your account. Bet365 offers a welcome package of €/£50 free bet credits if you bet €/£10 as a new player.
Try your luck on this year's EuroBasket! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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