Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Betting Tips - MLB
by Joseph King | in MLB Prediction
The owners of the American League’s second best record the Houston Astros will look to avoid the sweep when they host an underachieving Boston Red Sox team for the final game of a three game set. Houston has built up a comfortable 11 game lead over the second-place Mariners in the AL West and their 67-38 record ranks third best in baseball. The Astros will be desperate to get back to winning ways here after dropping the first two games against a Boston team sitting bottom of the AL East with a 53-52 record. Despite their current standing, the Red Sox are only two games behind Toronto for the final Wild Card spot.
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The oddsmakers have Houston as heavy favorites with consensus odds of 1.42 while the Red Sox come in at 2.90. These odds are mainly a reflection of the gap in quality of the two starting pitchers today, with Houston expected to prolong Bello’s wait for his first win. With the total posted at 8.5, we think there is definite value on the over here as both teams’ bats should come alive here.
Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Form
Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox's standings in the MLB
| Teams | % | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
0.654 | 162 | 106 | 56 |
|
17
|
0.481 | 162 | 78 | 84 |
Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox Last Matches
Houston Astros
Last matches
W
L
W
W
L
L
Victories
3/5 (60%)
Defeats
2/5 (40%)
25 Jul 2022 - MLB
Oakland Athletics
7 :
5
Houston Astros
21 Jul 2022 - MLB
Houston Astros
3 :
2
New York Yankees
14 Jul 2022 - MLB
Los Angeles Angels
2 :
3
Houston Astros
13 Jul 2022 - MLB
Los Angeles Angels
7 :
1
Houston Astros
10 Jul 2022 - MLB
Oakland Athletics
1 :
6
Houston Astros
Boston Red Sox
Last matches
W
L
L
W
W
W
Victories
3/6 (50%)
Defeats
3/6 (50%)
25 Jul 2022 - MLB
Boston Red Sox
3 :
1
Cleveland Guardians
17 Jul 2022 - MLB
New York Yankees
13 :
2
Boston Red Sox
10 Jul 2022 - MLB
Boston Red Sox
11 :
6
New York Yankees
7 Jul 2022 - MLB
Boston Red Sox
5 :
6
New York Yankees
5 Jul 2022 - MLB
Boston Red Sox
4 :
8
Tampa Bay Rays
29 Jun 2022 - MLB
Toronto Blue Jays
5 :
6
Boston Red Sox
Houston Astros against Boston Red Sox : Head to Head (H2H)
Houston Astros
50 %
Boston Red Sox
50 %
16 May 2022 - MLB
Boston Red Sox
6 :
3
Houston Astros
22 Oct 2021 - MLB
Houston Astros
5 :
0
Boston Red Sox
19 Oct 2021 - MLB
Boston Red Sox
2 :
9
Houston Astros
18 Oct 2021 - MLB
Boston Red Sox
12 :
3
Houston Astros
5 Mar 2020 - MLB Spring Training
Boston Red Sox
0 :
5
Houston Astros
26 May 2019 - MLB
Houston Astros
1 :
4
Boston Red Sox
Houston Astros - Boston Red Sox: Form Analysis
Houston sports an intimidating home record of 33-17 while Boston is a respectable 27-25 as the road team this season. Both teams' offenses are due for a breakout game, especially the Astros who were held to a combined three runs in the first two games of this series. It’s hard to picture the hosts dropping a third straight game here, especially with the pitching advantage they have. Houston has only won four of the last 10 games while Boston is 5-5 in their last 10.
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Houston Astros & Boston Red Sox Squad Analysis
Jose Urquidy gets the start for Houston and is 9-4 on the year with a 3.86 ERA. Urquidy has struggled with giving up the home run ball all season and has allowed at least one homer in 15 of his 19 games on the hill. On the other side, Brayan Bello makes only his fourth start for Boston with the rookie posting a 0-3 record and 8.82 ERA. A bizarre situation occurred at the end of the previous game with Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez being informed seemingly as soon as the game had finished that he had been traded to the Astros with the MLB trade deadline ending soon.
Houston Astros - Boston Red Sox Key Points
- Boston took the first two games of the series by scores of 2-1 and 3-2. They’ve won four of the five matchups against Houston so far this season.
- Astros’ starter Jose Urquidy has been vulnerable at times this season, allowing 17 home runs in 19 starts.
- The Red Sox have lost all four games that pitcher Brayan Bello started on the mound with the 23-year-old giving up 16 earned runs in only 16 total innings pitched.
- The Astros have the seventh best OPS against right-handed pitchers this season at .739 and should be able to put up runs against Bello.
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Our Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Prediction
We’re going to back over 8.5 runs to be scored as our pick for this game. Brayan Bello starting for the Red Sox sees the hosts come into this game as significant favorites as the rookie still looks to find his feet in the majors. This is a tough spot for Boston as they know they could very well wind up turning to their bullpen early if Bello has a rough start and the Red Sox relief pitchers have been poor this season. Expect Houston to carry the majority of the scoring load but the Red Sox bats should be able to drive in a few runs off of Urquidy.
Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox - Other Interesting Predictions
Astros -1.5 spread
Houston should have no problems putting up runs with this matchup and we should see them ultimately bounce back with a convincing win to avoid the series sweep.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
