Germany - Bundesliga
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Bundesliga Predictions
Two sides in the Bundesliga bottom half, Hamburg and Mainz, will be squaring off in the sixth round of matches. With one win apiece, both will be desperate to win here, Hamburg being on five points and Mainz on four. Read on for our prediction of the match.
The opening three matches marked a tough return to the top tier for Hamburg, with Bayern Munich being one of the teams they faced. While it has been a difficult return, a fair share of Hamburg’s problems are created by their own poor scoring run.
At two goals, they are the lowest scorers in the league. A 0-0 draw with Union Berlin, however, ensured they picked up four points from the last two matches.
While Hamburg feel they have turned the corner, Mainz will be energized by their break to focus on Europe in midweek. They are coming off a 1-0 away win against Omonia in the Conference League.
That was their fourth win in nine matches this season, but only one of those wins has been in the Bundesliga. Their last league outing was a difficult one, as they fell 2-0 at home to Borussia Dortmund.
This will not be as tough, with Mainz having avoided defeat in the last six meetings with Hamburg. The visitors have also impressed away from home, winning three of the last five matches.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
The Best Betting Odds for Hamburg v 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.2 | 3.75 | 2.1 |
|
|
3 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
|
|
3 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
|
|
3.2 | 3.6 | 2.15 |
|
|
3.1 | 3.65 | 2.17 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Hamburg and 1 Fsv Mainz 05?
Our prediction for the Hamburg vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 match is: Mainz wins the match.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/10/2025 between Hamburg and 1 Fsv Mainz 05 in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 27.47% for a win of Hamburg against 1 Fsv Mainz 05 with odds of 3.3 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Hamburg vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 is 15.29% with odds of 3.8 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 57.24% chance ⭐ for a win of 1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs Hamburg with odds of 2.42 at Stake.
Hamburg - 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction and Best Odds:
| Hamburg 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Fsv Mainz 05 wins | 57.24% | 2.42 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.66% | 1.87 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 59.52% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: 1 Fsv Mainz 05/1 Fsv Mainz 05 | 28.51% | 3.3 at Ladbrokes |
Hamburg vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Form
Hamburg and 1 Fsv Mainz 05's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
14
|
9 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 |
|
17
|
6 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -8 |
Hamburg and 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
20 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
13 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
24 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
16 Aug 2025 - DFB Pokal
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
10 May 2025 - 2. Bundesliga
27 Apr 2025 - 2. Bundesliga
11 Apr 2025 - 2. Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
13 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
24 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
16 Aug 2025 - DFB Pokal
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
19 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Oct 2025 - Conference League
27 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
20 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
13 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
31 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Aug 2025 - Conference League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
13 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Aug 2025 - Conference League
24 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
29 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Oct 2025 - Conference League
20 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
31 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
21 Aug 2025 - Conference League
18 Aug 2025 - DFB Pokal
16 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
Hamburg against 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Missing players
N. Katterbach
W. Omari
MidfielderB. Jatta
F. Vieira
R. Zentner
DefenderM. Dal
A. Caci
MidfielderD. Gleiber
Most goals and assists
Hamburg
1 Fsv Mainz 05
R. Philippe
(3 Goals)
N. Amiri
(5 Goals)
M. Muheim
(2 Assists)
B. Hollerbach
(2 Assists)
, 
K. Sano
(2 Assists)
Hamburg - 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Key Points
- Mainz have posted back-to-back wins in their last two away matches.
- Hamburg have suffered three defeats in their last five home matches.
- In six matches so far in the season, Hamburg managed just one win.
- Mainz have four wins in their nine matches this season.
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Our Hamburg vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction
In the last six meetings between these two sides, Mainz are unbeaten. Facing Hamburg at this point of their season will be key for Mainz, who are coming off a win in Europe. There is a sense of stability that is creeping into Die Nullfunfer’s season, and they’ll be looking to reap from this consistency in away matches.
Their last two away games have already produced wins, and in five matches on the road, they lost just once. Our prediction for Hamburg v Mainz is that Mainz wins the match.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Hamburg 1 Fsv Mainz 05
| Hamburg vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburg wins | 2.63 | 3.2 | +21.7% |
| Draw | 3.7 | 3.75 | +1.4% |
| 1 Fsv Mainz 05 wins | 2.38 | 2.1 | -11.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- 1 Fsv Mainz 05 is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 11.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 42.0% and is now 47.6% (5.6%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
