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by Devesh Jaganath | in World Cup Predictions
The 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers are in focus on Tuesday evening when Estonia and Moldova face off at the Lillekula Stadium. The Blueshirts are in fifth place in Group I, while the Tricolours are bottom of the table. Let’s get into the match prediction.
Estonia will play out the remainder of these qualifiers for nothing more than pride. With three points after six games, they are already out of contention to qualify for the World Cup next year.
The Blueshirts’ qualification hopes were brought to an end this past weekend when they lost to Italy 1-0, marking their fifth defeat in this competition. Their only victory to date came against their upcoming opponent in March.
The hosts are also winless in their last five home games (D1 L4) and failed to score in three of those matches.
Meanwhile, despite being rooted to the bottom of Group I without a single point to their name, Moldova can still qualify for a play-off berth based on their Nations League ranking.
The Tricolours suffered a 2-1 defeat to Romania in a friendly over the weekend and have now won only one of their last 10 matches across all competitions. No team has conceded more than the 25 goals Moldova have shipped in this WCQ cycle.
The visitors are on a four-match losing streak on the road and have conceded 18 goals in this period, including 11 in a single match against Norway.
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The Best Betting Odds for Estonia v Moldova Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.15 | 3.1 | 3.7 |
|
|
2.25 | 3.25 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.15 | 3 | 3.3 |
|
|
2.1 | 3 | 3.4 |
|
|
2.1 | 3.1 | 3.45 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Estonia and Moldova?
Our prediction for the Estonia vs Moldova match is: over 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/10/2025 between Estonia and Moldova in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 50.4% for a win of Estonia against Moldova with odds of 2.25 at Betfred.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Estonia vs Moldova is 16.12% with odds of 3.26 at Melbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 33.48% chance ⭐ for a win of Moldova vs Estonia with odds of 3.92 at Melbet.
Estonia - Moldova Prediction and Best Odds:
| Estonia Moldova Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Estonia wins | 50.4% | 2.25 at Betfred |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.54% | 2.3 at Betfair |
| Both Team To Score | 56.25% | 1.96 at Unibet |
| Half-time / Full-time : Estonia/Estonia | 24.27% | 3.6 at Betfair |
Estonia vs Moldova Form
Estonia and Moldova's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -13 |
|
5
|
1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -27 |
Estonia and Moldova Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
11 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
22 Mar 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
6/6 (100%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
22 Mar 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Sept 2024 - International Friendlies
7 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
19 Nov 2024 - International Friendlies
16 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
Estonia vs Moldova Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
Estonia against Moldova Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 5 - 3 - 2
Most goals and assists
Estonia
Moldova
M. Kait
(3 Goals)
I. Nicolaescu
(2 Goals)
Estonia - Moldova Key Points
- Estonia have conceded two or more goals in five of their last seven games.
- Four of Estonia’s last six home games have ended with over 2.5 goals.
- Moldova are averaging five goals per 90 in this competition.
- Five of Moldova’s last seven games have ended with over 2.5 goals.
- The reverse fixture between these sides in this competition ended with a 3-2 scoreline.
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Our Estonia vs Moldova Prediction
Estonia have already been eliminated from the race for qualification, but they will not want to end this competition with just three points, and this is probably their best chance to pick up another victory.
Despite their dismal record in this competition, Moldova can still earn a play-off spot due to their Nations League ranking. Like their opponents, this represents the visitors' best chance of picking up three points, so we’re expecting both teams to go all out in this one. Our Estonia vs Moldova prediction is over 2.5.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Estonia Moldova
| Estonia vs Moldova | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia wins | 1.8 | 2.15 | +19.4% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 3.1 | -8.8% |
| Moldova wins | 4.33 | 3.7 | -14.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Estonia is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 19.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 55.6% and is now 46.5% (-9.0%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Estonia vs. Moldova game!
Are you planning to bet on the upcoming match between Estonia and Moldova? Why not take advantage of the free bets from Bet365? Use our promo code STYVIP1 and open your account. Bet365 offers a welcome package of €/£50 free bet credits if you bet €/£10 as a new player.
Try your luck on this year's World Cup! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
