Chelsea vs Leeds Prediction & Betting Tips - Carabao Cup
England - Carabao Cup
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Carabao Cup Predictions
The Carabao Cup third round continues on Wednesday night with Chelsea taking on Leeds United at Stamford Bridge. Nine goals were scored in the three matches across all competitions between these sides last season, which sees us leaning towards a high-scoring affair in this one for our main prediction.
These sides met in last season’s FA Cup semi-final back in February, and it was the Blues that came out on top in that encounter 1-0. Now under the guidance of Xabi Alonso, the West Londoners have made a promising start to the season, currently the joint-highest-scoring team in the Premier League with eight goals in three games coming into this one.
After surviving the drop in their first campaign back in the EPL, the Whites will be looking to kick on this season. They are unbeaten in the top flight after the first three weeks and took four points off this opponent in their two league games last term, drawing 2-2 here at the Bridge after beating the Blues 3-1 at Elland Road in December. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Chelsea v Leeds Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.48 | 4.5 | 6 |
|
|
1.55 | 4.55 | 6.1 |
|
|
1.54 | 4.38 | 5.75 |
|
|
1.54 | 4.38 | 5.75 |
|
|
1.51 | 4.44 | 5.95 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Chelsea and Leeds?
Our prediction for the Chelsea vs Leeds match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 09/09/2026 between Chelsea and Leeds in Carabao Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 44.88% for a win of Chelsea against Leeds with odds of 1.55 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Chelsea vs Leeds is 19.74% with odds of 4.8 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 35.38% chance ⭐ for a win of Leeds vs Chelsea with odds of 6.4 at Tonybet.
Chelsea - Leeds Prediction and Best Odds:
| Chelsea Leeds Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 44.88% | 1.55 at 1xbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.68% | 1.6 at 1xbet |
| Both Team To Score | 53.33% | 1.7 at Bet365 |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Chelsea | 23.61% | 4.5 at Bet365 |
Chelsea vs Leeds Form
Chelsea and Leeds Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Sept 2026 - Premier League
30 Aug 2026 - Premier League
27 Aug 2026 - Carabao Cup
24 Aug 2026 - Premier League
15 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2026 - Premier League
27 Aug 2026 - Carabao Cup
15 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
5 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Sept 2026 - Premier League
24 Aug 2026 - Premier League
9 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
24 May 2026 - Premier League
9 May 2026 - Premier League
21 Apr 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2026 - Premier League
30 Aug 2026 - Premier League
25 Aug 2026 - Carabao Cup
22 Aug 2026 - Premier League
15 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
12 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2026 - Premier League
15 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
30 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
25 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
17 May 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2026 - Premier League
25 Aug 2026 - Carabao Cup
22 Aug 2026 - Premier League
12 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
24 May 2026 - Premier League
Chelsea vs Leeds Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
17 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
26 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3 Dec 2025 - Premier League
28 Feb 2024 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2023 - Premier League
21 Aug 2022 - Premier League
Chelsea - Leeds: Form Analysis
Chelsea made light work of Luton in their first match of this season’s Carabao Cup, beating the Hatters 2-0 here last month. They have won this competition five times but not since the 2014-15 season.
After back-to-back wins over Fulham and Brighton in which they scored seven goals, the Blues suffered their first loss of the Alonso era, going down 2-1 to Arsenal at the Emirates last weekend.
Still, this week’s hosts have won both their home games this season in all competitions and have not been beaten by their upcoming opponents here at Stamford Bridge since November 2000.
Chelsea have won seven of their last eight home matches against Leeds across all competitions (D1)!
Meanwhile, Leeds have only lifted the EFL Cup once in their history (1967-68) and were eliminated in Round 2 last season. They have only got beyond the third round four times in the last 17 years.
However, the Whites are on an upward trajectory, still unbeaten in the league this season (W1 D2), while having only tasted defeat in two of their last 16 competitive matches since early March.
The visitors beat Nottingham Forest 2-0 on the road in their first match of this season’s Carabao Cup. While they have not beaten this opponent on the road in 25 years, they have scored two or more goals in two of their last three visits to this venue.
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Chelsea vs Leeds last Lineups
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
M. Penders
DefenderL. Colwill
M. Gusto
P. Chavarria
MidfielderV. Barco
ForwardD. Welbeck
G. Quenda
Estevao
J. Gittens
M. Zetterer
DefenderJ. Bijol
M. Bard
MidfielderS. Longstaff
ForwardD. James
H. Wilson
L. Nmecha
B. Aaronson
J. Bahoya
Missing players
L. Colwill
M. Palestra
MidfielderJ. Henderson
M. Caicedo
J. Rodon
MidfielderI. Gruev
ForwardD. James
Mateo Joseph
Chelsea & Leeds Squad Analysis
Tonight’s match will allow Alonso to rotate his squad, which could open the door for the likes of Malo Gusto, Levi Colwill, Pep Chavarria, and shot-stopper Mike Penders to earn starting berths.
Estevao looked bright after coming off the bench for the final 10 minutes at the Emirates, and he could replace Pedro Neto on the flank, while Danny Welbeck could lead the line, having done so against Luton.
Ahead of kickoff, Alonso confirmed in his pre-match presser that Moises Caicedo, Marco Palestra, Jordan Henderson and Emmanuel Emegha will not be available due to injuries.
Lukas Nmecha scored and provided an assist in last season’s EPL fixture at Stamford Bridge!
The German forward has not started a Premier League game for the Whites this season, but he was tasked with leading the line against Forest in the previous round and will likely do so again tonight.
Daniel James and James Justin scored for Leeds in the last round, but the former has been sidelined in the past couple of weeks with a hamstring injury and will be assessed ahead of kickoff.
Ilia Gruev is also listed as a doubt due to a knee issue, while Joe Rodon (hamstring) and Mateo Joseph (knee) are confirmed absentees for this trip to West London.
Most goals and assists
Chelsea
Leeds
D. Welbeck
(1 Goals)
D. James
(1 Goals)
,
J. Justin
(1 Goals)
Chelsea - Leeds Key Points
- Three of Chelsea’s four games this season have ended with both teams scoring.
- Chelsea have only kept two clean sheets in their last seven home games in all competitions.
- Leeds United have scored in all four matches across all competitions this season.
- Leeds United have only failed to score in two of their last nine away games in all competitions.
- Both teams scored in three of the last four matches between these sides.
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Our Chelsea vs Leeds Prediction
Chelsea have looked free-flowing and very impressive in attack under Xabi Alonso this season, but there have been a few concerns at the other end of the field, as they have already conceded seven goals in four games across all competitions this term.
Leeds United took four points off the Blues in the two league games between these sides last season. The Whites have become one of the toughest teams to beat in the top flight in recent months, and we feel that even if they lose here, they will get on the scoresheet. Our Chelsea vs Leeds United prediction is BTTS.
Chelsea vs Leeds Alternative Predictions
Chelsea wins
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Chelsea vs Leeds - FAQs
The Carabao Cup match between Chelsea and Leeds United will be broadcast live on Sky Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can keep up with all the action using our Carabao Cup livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
