Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad Prediction & Betting Tips - Copa del Rey
Spain - Copa del Rey
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Daniel Ngulu | in Football Predictions
Atlético Madrid and Real Sociedad are putting to the side their league schedules this weekend to focus on the Copa del Rey. The two will be heading out to Seville, where this encounter will be staged at the Estadio de La Cartuja. The teams will be facing off for the third time this season, and Real Sociedad are still winless in the earlier two. Read on for our prediction of this match below.
Atletico Madrid are going for their 11th Copa, this being their first time in the final for over a decade. The last time they got to this stage, they went on to win it. Their form ahead of this match is, however, concerning, having lost five of their last six outings.
Real Sociedad have a 6-4 record against Atletico in this competition and won the last two. Generally, though, they are winless against Atletico since 2022. They’ll hope to end that run as they eye a fourth Copa del Rey crown.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Atletico Madrid v Real Sociedad Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.9 | 3.8 | 4 |
|
|
1.85 | 3.72 | 4.12 |
|
|
1.85 | 3.72 | 4.12 |
|
|
1.86 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
|
|
1.88 | 3.7 | 4 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad?
Our prediction for the Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad match is: over 2.5 goals + BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/04/2026 between Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad in Copa del Rey :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 53.1% for a win of Atletico Madrid against Real Sociedad with odds of 1.9 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad is 10.71% with odds of 3.95 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 36.19% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid with odds of 4.2 at Tonybet.
Atletico Madrid - Real Sociedad Prediction and Best Odds:
| Atletico Madrid Real Sociedad Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid wins | 53.1% | 1.9 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.67% | 1.83 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 72.08% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Atletico Madrid/Atletico Madrid | 22.36% | 3 at Bet365 |
Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad Form
Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Apr 2026 - Champions League
11 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
8 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
22 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
18 Mar 2026 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
14 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
24 Feb 2026 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
8 Apr 2026 - Champions League
22 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
18 Mar 2026 - Champions League
3 Mar 2026 - Copa del Rey
28 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
4 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
20 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
15 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
7 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
4 Mar 2026 - Copa del Rey
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
4 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
15 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
4 Mar 2026 - Copa del Rey
21 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
7 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
7 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
28 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
14 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
11 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
4 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
7 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
10 May 2025 - LaLiga
6 Oct 2024 - LaLiga
25 May 2024 - LaLiga
8 Oct 2023 - LaLiga
Atletico Madrid - Real Sociedad: Form Analysis
Atletico Madrid are on a poor run of form ahead of this clash, having lost five of their last six matches. They have a knack for winning the matches that matter, though. That explains their route to this final as well as the Champions League semis. Atletico Madrid are coming off a 2-1 home loss to Barcelona in the UCL.
However, they sailed through courtesy of a 2-0 first-leg win. They more or less qualified for this final in the same way, beating Barca 4-0 at home before losing 3-0 away. Being 22 points off Barcelona in La Liga, their title hopes are as good as dead, but the Rojiblancos can still win two other cups.
These two are meeting in the Copa del Rey final for the second time.
Real Sociedad are set to play in the final for the first time in six years. The only time they met Atletico in the final of this cup was in 1987; they went on to win 6-4 on penalties. Like Atleti, they also won the last time they reached the final.
They will be confident going into the game having beaten Atleti in their last two Copa del Rey meetings. That brought their record against Atletico to 6-4 in the Copa. They drew 3-3 with Alaves in their last outing and will hope for a better job defensively here.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Atletico Madrid against Real Sociedad Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
J. Oblak
DefenderJ. Bonar
C. Lenglet
A. Baena
J. Cardoso
O. Vargas
P. Barrios
R. Martinez Moya
ForwardN. Gonzalez
T. Almada
A. Sorloth
A. Remiro
DefenderA. Munoz
L. Beitia
A. Elustondo
J. Gorrotxategi
T. Kubo
P. Marin
Wesley
Y. Herrera
B. Mendez
ForwardO. Oskarsson
Missing players
J. Gimenez
D. Hancko
A. Odriozola
I. Ruperez Urtasun
MidfielderI. Zubeldia
Atletico Madrid & Real Sociedad Squad Analysis
Jan Oblak is back to full fitness at Atletico Madrid, and we could see a change in goal. Juan Musso has done well in recent weeks, but he could be dropping to the bench to serve as Oblak’s deputy.
Atletico will miss the services of Pablo Barrios, who is reported to be nursing a thigh injury. Julian Alvarez will lead the attack as Diego Simeone looks to reap the benefits of his good recent form. The Argentine scored with a sublime kick against Barcelona and has this season had 27 goal involvements for his club.
Atletico’s Antoine Griezmann has scored five times in the Copa del Rey this season.
In the Sociedad goal, the man to deal with the Atletico attackers will be Unai Marrero, who has been their custodian in the cup games. At least five of Sociedad’s players will be locked out of this game with injuries.
However, Pellegrino Matarazzo will happily call on Sergio Gomez, whose red card against Alaves doesn’t count here. Mikel Oyarzabal will be looking to add to his 14 goals this season as he returns to the starting team.
Atletico Madrid - Real Sociedad Key Points
- Both teams scored in five of Atletico’s last six matches.
- Eight of Atletico’s last 10 games had over 2.5 goals.
- Six of Real Sociedad’s last nine games saw 3+ goals netted.
- Both teams scored in six of Sociedad’s last nine games.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad Prediction
These teams have already faced off twice this season, and both matches came in 2026. None of them had a clean sheet, and only two of the last nine had shutouts recorded. We could see the same here, going by the two sides’ results ahead of this.
Five goals were netted in their latest meeting, while each side is coming from matches with at least three goals scored. Such runs convince us to also expect a high-scoring match. Our prediction for Atletico Madrid v Real Sociedad is for over 2.5 goals + BTTS.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad Alternative Predictions
Atletico Madrid wins
Real Sociedad will come into this game once again as the underdogs. They will be attempting to beat Atletico for the first time since 2022 in a Copa del Rey match. While Atletico have a poor run ahead of this game, they have been winning when it matters. We are backing them to win here too, as our second prediction.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Atletico Madrid Real Sociedad
| Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid wins | 1.82 | 1.9 | +4.4% |
| Draw | 3.8 | 3.95 | +3.9% |
| Real Sociedad wins | 4.4 | 4.2 | -4.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Atletico Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 4.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 54.9% and is now 52.6% (-2.3%)
Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad - FAQs
The Atletico Madrid v Real Sociedad match will be played on Saturday, 18th April.
The Atletico Madrid v Real Sociedad match will be played at the Estadio de La Cartuja.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
