Italy - Serie A
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by Sridhar in Serie A Predictions
Top-four chances of Atalanta and Roma will be on the line as the two Serie A heavyweights battle it out on Monday in a Matchday 36 fixture. La Dea started this round in third place, and the Giallorossi started in fifth, and this match at Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo comes with our prediction of under 2.5 goals. With three rounds remaining and only five points separating Atalanta (68) and Roma (63), a decisive result could be crucial in the quest to finish in Champions League qualification spots.
Atalanta have a five-point lead over the three teams below them – Juventus, Roma, and Lazio all locked on 63. The hosts could all but secure a top-four spot with a win, while a win for Roma could set up an interesting season finale. La Dea won the reverse fixture 2-0, and another clean sheet here will make it the first instance of shutouts for Atalanta in the same season against Roma since 1964/65.
Roma’s recent resurgence makes it a difficult, if not impossible, task for Atalanta to brush aside the visitors. This match has all the makings of being a humdinger. Read further to find our predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for Atalanta v Roma Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2 | 3.5 | 3.75 |
|
|
2 | 3.5 | 3.75 |
|
|
2 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
|
|
2 | 3.4 | 3.75 |
|
|
2.05 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Atalanta and Roma?
Our prediction for the Atalanta vs Roma match is: under 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/05/2025 between Atalanta and Roma in Serie A :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 29.66% for a win of Atalanta against Roma with odds of 2.21 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Atalanta vs Roma is 24.38% with odds of 3.58 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 45.95% chance ⭐ for a win of Roma vs Atalanta with odds of 3.88 at Vbet.
Atalanta - Roma Prediction and Best Odds:
| Atalanta Roma Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Roma wins | 45.95% | 3.88 at Vbet |
| Under 2.5 | 73.57% | 2.33 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 34.58% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Roma | 17.85% | 8 at Bet365 |
Atalanta vs Roma Form
Atalanta and Roma's standings in the Serie A
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
74 | 38 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 41 |
|
5
|
69 | 38 | 20 | 9 | 9 | 21 |
Atalanta and Roma Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 May 2025 - Serie A
27 Apr 2025 - Serie A
20 Apr 2025 - Serie A
13 Apr 2025 - Serie A
6 Apr 2025 - Serie A
30 Mar 2025 - Serie A
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Apr 2025 - Serie A
13 Apr 2025 - Serie A
6 Apr 2025 - Serie A
16 Mar 2025 - Serie A
1 Mar 2025 - Serie A
18 Feb 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 May 2025 - Serie A
20 Apr 2025 - Serie A
30 Mar 2025 - Serie A
9 Mar 2025 - Serie A
23 Feb 2025 - Serie A
12 Feb 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 May 2025 - Serie A
27 Apr 2025 - Serie A
19 Apr 2025 - Serie A
13 Apr 2025 - Serie A
6 Apr 2025 - Serie A
29 Mar 2025 - Serie A
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 May 2025 - Serie A
19 Apr 2025 - Serie A
6 Apr 2025 - Serie A
16 Mar 2025 - Serie A
6 Mar 2025 - Europa League
2 Mar 2025 - Serie A
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Apr 2025 - Serie A
13 Apr 2025 - Serie A
29 Mar 2025 - Serie A
13 Mar 2025 - Europa League
9 Mar 2025 - Serie A
16 Feb 2025 - Serie A
Atalanta vs Roma Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
17 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
2 Dec 2024 - Serie A
12 May 2024 - Serie A
7 Jan 2024 - Serie A
24 Apr 2023 - Serie A
18 Sep 2022 - Serie A
5 Mar 2022 - Serie A
Atalanta - Roma: Form Analysis
Atalanta thrashed Monza 4-0 away from home last weekend to continue their resurgence. After a run of three consecutive defeats between mid-March and April, La Dea bounced back with three wins and one draw.
They now have a five-point buffer over Juventus, Roma, and Lazio as the teams chase fourth place. One more win could be enough for Atalanta to book their spot in next season’s Champions League, although they would be gunning for at least five points.
It’s their home form that could be of concern, as Atalanta have won only one of their last nine competitive matches here (W1, D4, L4). That shouldn’t take away from the fact that they have four wins and a draw from their last five matches against Roma, including a 2-0 win in the reverse fixture.
Roma are on an unbeaten 19-match run in Serie A, winning 14.
This has shifted them from a struggling mid-table side to challengers for a top-four finish. They defeated Fiorentina 1-0 at home last weekend, which was their third consecutive win with the same scoreline!
That seems to be their preferred score even on the road, as Roma won five of their last six away league games with the same 1-0 score. They still have to overcome their poor recent record in Bergamo, having lost four of their five recent league trips against Atalanta.
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Atalanta against Roma Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Missing players
G. Scalvini
S. Posch
M. Palestra
S. Kolasinac
I. Hien
ForwardG. Scamacca
Atalanta & Roma Squad Analysis
Atalanta have a long list of injuries and absences that keeps their treatment team busy. Sead Kolasinac is out with a knee injury, while Stefan Posch is ruled out because of a thigh injury. Gianluca Scamacca is also out due to a thigh injury, while Giorgio Scalvini and Marco Palestra are also set to miss out. Joining them will be Isak Hien, who has accumulated yellow cards for a ban.
Ademola Lookman is also out because of an injury, and it remains to be seen if the Nigerian forward will play again for Atalanta, as he remains a subject of intense summer transfer speculation.
Mateo Retegui is all set to win the golden boot with 24 Serie A goals.
The young forward also has seven assists and is likely to be their sole striker in a 3-4-2-1 formation with Charles De Ketelaere and Marco Brescianini likely to slot right behind.
Roma have fewer absences than their hosts, with Lorenzo Pellegrini joining the sidelines due to a muscular injury. That could rule him out for the season like Paulo Dybala.
That should see another game for Artem Dovbyk and Eldor Shomurodov as the two forwards in their 3-5-2 formation. Matias Soule, with five goals and two assists, is likely to slot in on the right wing, while Angelino will look to add to his tally of two goals from the left.
Most goals and assists
Atalanta
Roma
M. Retegui
(28 Goals)
A. Dovbyk
(14 Goals)
C. De Ketelaere
(11 Assists)
M. Soule
(5 Assists)
Atalanta - Roma Key Points
- Five of Atalanta’s last six league fixtures have produced under 2.5 goals.
- In their last seven Serie A matches at home, Atalanta have seen fewer than three goals scored.
- Roma’s away league matches averaged 2.00 goals per fixture, and only one side averaged fewer.
- Before this round, over the last eight matchdays, Roma’s matches averaged 1.25 goals per fixture.
- Six of Roma’s last eight league fixtures have returned under 1.5 goals.
- In five of Roma’s last six away Serie A matches, the final score was 1-0 in their favour.
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Our Atalanta vs Roma Prediction
The stakes are high for Atalanta and Roma this weekend. If Roma continues their winning trend, they will get to within two points of their hosts and improve their top four chances, while Atalanta can nearly confirm their top four berth with a win. Atalanta kept a clean sheet in eight of their last 12 league games, while Roma did so in nine matches during that period. The visitors also have five shutouts in six recent league trips, and this fixture could also be a tight one. Our Atalanta vs Roma prediction is under 2.5.
Atalanta vs Roma - Other Interesting Predictions
Charles De Ketelaere to score anytime
Charles De Ketelaere scored his first league goal since Christmas and then added one more against Monza last weekend. This could be a big morale booster for the young forward, and facing Roma brings back happy memories. He scored a brace against them in this fixture last year at this venue, and a repeat can’t be ruled out. Back Charles De Ketelaere to score anytime.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Atalanta Roma
| Atalanta vs Roma | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta wins | 1.85 | 2 | +8.1% |
| Draw | 3.6 | 3.5 | -2.8% |
| Roma wins | 3.9 | 3.75 | -3.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Roma is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 3.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 25.6% and is now 26.7% (1.0%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Atalanta vs. Roma game!
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Try your luck on this year's Serie A! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
Atalanta vs Roma match : Frequently asked questions
The Atalanta v Roma Italian Serie A match will be live on SKY Go Italia and DAZN Italy in Italy.
You can also follow the game through our live scores. Check out our Italian Serie A Livescore page!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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