Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction & Betting Tips - Italian Super Cup
Italy - Italian Super Cup
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Football Predictions
Napoli and AC Milan head to Saudi Arabia as they play in the semi-finals of the 2025-26 Supercoppa Italiana. This match on Thursday at the neutral venue of the King Saud University Stadium in Riyadh between the ‘Partenopei’ and the ‘Rossoneri’ comes with our prediction of both teams scoring goals. The winner of this tie will wait for the winner of the second semi-final, which will be played between Bologna and Inter Milan.
Napoli qualified for this competition by winning the Serie A last season, while Milan were the 2024-25 Coppa Italia runners-up. Both teams come into this match in contrasting forms but are locked in a tight battle for the Serie A title this season. That adds extra intrigue to the contest, although winning a title could be high on their agenda.
Milan have won the Supercoppa Italiana eight times, with their last win coming in the 2024-25 edition. Napoli have won it only twice, the last coming back in 2014. Which team looks better placed to add to that count of titles? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for Napoli v AC Milan Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.75 | 2.8 | 2.55 |
|
|
2.59 | 3.26 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.85 | 3.05 | 2.75 |
|
|
2.91 | 2.96 | 2.7 |
|
|
2.94 | 3.05 | 2.78 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Napoli and AC Milan?
Our prediction for the Napoli vs AC Milan match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/12/2025 between Napoli and AC Milan in Italian Super Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 32.26% for a win of Napoli against AC Milan with odds of 2.95 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Napoli vs AC Milan is 39.96% with odds of 3.26 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 27.79% chance ⭐ for a win of AC Milan vs Napoli with odds of 3.1 at 1xbet.
Napoli - AC Milan Prediction and Best Odds:
| Napoli AC Milan Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 39.96% | 3.26 at 1xbet |
| Under 2.5 | 62.59% | 2.24 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 52.92% | 1.82 at Betsson |
| Half-time / Full-time: Draw/Draw | 19.7% | 4.5 at Bet365 |
Napoli vs AC Milan Form
Napoli and AC Milan Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Dec 2025 - Serie A
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
7 Dec 2025 - Serie A
3 Dec 2025 - Coppa Italia
30 Nov 2025 - Serie A
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Dec 2025 - Serie A
3 Dec 2025 - Coppa Italia
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - Serie A
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Dec 2025 - Serie A
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
30 Nov 2025 - Serie A
9 Nov 2025 - Serie A
28 Oct 2025 - Serie A
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Dec 2025 - Serie A
8 Dec 2025 - Serie A
4 Dec 2025 - Coppa Italia
29 Nov 2025 - Serie A
23 Nov 2025 - Serie A
8 Nov 2025 - Serie A
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Dec 2025 - Serie A
29 Nov 2025 - Serie A
2 Nov 2025 - Serie A
24 Oct 2025 - Serie A
19 Oct 2025 - Serie A
28 Sept 2025 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Dec 2025 - Serie A
4 Dec 2025 - Coppa Italia
23 Nov 2025 - Serie A
8 Nov 2025 - Serie A
28 Oct 2025 - Serie A
5 Oct 2025 - Serie A
Napoli vs AC Milan Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
28 Sept 2025 - Serie A
30 Mar 2025 - Serie A
29 Oct 2024 - Serie A
11 Feb 2024 - Serie A
29 Oct 2023 - Serie A
18 Apr 2023 - Champions League
Napoli - AC Milan: Form Analysis
Napoli were beaten 1-0 away at Udinese last weekend, which was their second loss in a row following a 2-0 loss away at Benfica in the Champions League. These defeats were preceded by five wins in a row in all competitions, so they still have form on their side.
Coach Antonio Conte will be worried about the defensive frailties, as his side failed to keep a clean sheet in their last four matches. That was preceded by a run of six clean sheets in seven competitive matches, so Napoli would be eager to turn the clock back.
Nine of Napoli’s last 11 games saw under 2.5 goals in normal time.
Milan were held to a 2-2 home draw against Sassuolo at the weekend that saw them lose the Serie A top spot to arch-rivals Inter Milan. That result made it just one win in their last three competitive games (W1, D1, L1), a bump in their momentum.
Going back to the start of October, Milan could win just five of their last 11 competitive matches (D5, L1), which could be a concern. Coach Massimiliano Allegri will hope the change of location will trigger improvements.
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Napoli against AC Milan Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Substitutes
M. Ferrante
N. Contini
DefenderM. Gutierrez
S. Beukema
L. Marianucci
A. Buongiorno
M. Olivera
P. Mazzocchi
A. Vergara
F. Barido
E. De Chiara
ForwardG. Ambrosino
L. Lucca
N. Lang
R. Lukaku
L. Torriani
P. Terracciano
DefenderD. Bartesaghi
Z. Athekame
M. Dutu
D. Odogu
MidfielderE. Borsani
Y. Fofana
S. Ricci
L. Modric
M. Ibrahimovic
E. Sala
Missing players
A. Meret
MidfielderK. De Bruyne
F. Anguissa
B. Gilmour
R. Leao
S. Gimenez
Napoli & AC Milan Squad Analysis
Napoli have no fresh injuries to worry about, but their list of absences is already long. The likes of Kevin de Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, and Billy Gilmour continue to be out of contention for the Neapolitans.
Conte will set his side up in a 4-3-3 formation with Rasmus Hojlund leading the line. The Danish forward has six goals and two assists to his name for Napoli in all competitions and will be key to their chances once again.
Milan’s Christian Pulisic has three goals in his last four club appearances.
The Milanese club have injuries to be worried about, although not as many as Napoli’s. Youssouf Fofana, Santiago Gimenez, and Rafael Leao are the major absences, although Leao could surprise with an appearance like he did at the weekend.
Barring a few occasions, Milan have usually lined up in a 3-5-2 formation. The frontline would be led by Pulisic and Christopher Nkunku, with the creative force of Luka Modric and Adrien Rabiot manning the midfield.
Napoli - AC Milan Key Points
- Napoli failed to keep a clean sheet in their last four matches in all competitions.
- Six of Milan’s last ten matches in all competitions have seen both teams score goals.
- Milan failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last six matches.
- Four of the last six matches between these teams produced goals from both teams.
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Our Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction
Both teams come into this tournament not in the best of forms. Napoli lost two matches in a row, with their defeat in the Serie A at the weekend seeing them drop in the title race. Milan’s weekend draw in the league meant they lost their top spot to Inter Milan. The number of draws in recent times would be of concern for Milan, as they could win only five of their last 11 matches in all competitions.
This match has the makings of an interesting battle, and our Napoli vs AC Milan prediction is BTTS.
Napoli vs AC Milan - Other Interesting Predictions
Draw
A place in the final is at stake, and both teams are unlikely to yield an inch to the other. Backing the teams to draw during regular time could be an interesting option.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Napoli AC Milan
| Napoli vs AC Milan | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli wins | 2.32 | 2.95 | +27.2% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 3.26 | -4.1% |
| AC Milan wins | 3.1 | 3.1 | 0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- A draw is the most likely outcome
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 4.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 29.4% and is now 30.7% (1.3%)
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Napoli vs AC Milan - FAQs
The Napoli vs AC Milan Supercoppa Italiana match will be played at the neutral venue of the King Saud University Stadium in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The stadium has a current capacity of 25,000. It is set to be the venue for the 2034 FIFA World Cup and has a proposed capacity of 46,319.
The Napoli vs AC Milan Supercoppa Italiana match will be televised live DAZN in the UK.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our Supercoppa Italiana Livescore page!
In 2018, Serie A signed an agreement that would see Saudi Arabia host three of the next five tournaments. Naturally, there was outrage at this decision, as Italians were concerned about the restrictions for women spectators in Saudi Arabia. Those ended up as being minor hiccups, and although the cup did return to Italy in 2020 for two years, it was only due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The tournament has since gone back to Saudi Arabia, where it is all set to be played until 2029 under a new six-year agreement.
This is the 38th edition of the tournament. Founded back in 1988 as a two-team competition, it has become a four-team tournament since 2023. The winners and runners-up of the previous year’s Serie A and Coppa Italia go on to play the tournament.
Under the new rules, if a team were to be occupying more than one of the four available slots (the Serie A winner also winning the Coppa Italia, for example), that spot would then go to the third and/or fourth teams in the final Serie A standings.
Juventus is the most successful club in the history of the Supercoppa Italiana, winning the title on nine occasions. They were also runners-up on eight occasions.
Inter Milan and AC Milan are next in that list, winning the title on eight occasions each. Interestingly, these two sides have also been runners-up in five editions each!
Napoli have won the title twice and ended up as runners-up on three occasions.
Bologna are making their maiden appearance in a Supercoppa Italiana tournament.
This edition of the tournament features two semi-finals to determine the finalists. All three matches are to be played as single-leg matches. In case of a draw, the games will be directly decided by a penalty shoot-out.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
