Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Premier League Predictions
Villa Park sets the stage for a potential six-pointer in the upper echelons of the Premier League table on Wednesday night, when Aston Villa face off against Chelsea on Matchday 29. The Villans are fourth in the league standings, while the Blues are in sixth place after 28 games. Check out our match prediction below!
The race for Champions League football is red-hot, with the teams in third through seventh place in the EPL separated by just eight points. Unai Emery’s side slipped to fourth over the weekend after a costly defeat in Black Country, and another loss for the Lions in this fixture could see them end the Matchday outside the UCL qualification zone.
MD28 also proved costly for Liam Rosenior’s men as they dropped to sixth following a defeat in the London Derby. Three points feel vital for the West Londoners here, as they are about to enter one of the toughest runs of fixtures of any team in the top flight. In the next four gameweeks, they will face Newcastle, Everton and both the Manchester clubs. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Aston Villa v Chelsea Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.8 | 3.5 | 2.55 |
|
|
2.64 | 3.4 | 2.63 |
|
|
2.7 | 3.44 | 2.55 |
|
|
2.6 | 3.5 | 2.6 |
|
|
2.6 | 3.5 | 2.54 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Aston Villa and Chelsea?
Our prediction for the Aston Villa vs Chelsea match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/03/2026 between Aston Villa and Chelsea in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 32.41% for a win of Aston Villa against Chelsea with odds of 2.87 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Aston Villa vs Chelsea is 17.45% with odds of 3.6 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 50.14% chance ⭐ for a win of Chelsea vs Aston Villa with odds of 2.63 at Melbet.
Aston Villa - Chelsea Prediction and Best Odds:
| Aston Villa Chelsea Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 50.14% | 2.63 at Melbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.72% | 1.93 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 62.08% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Chelsea/Chelsea | 23.79% | 4.33 at Bet365 |
Aston Villa vs Chelsea Form
Aston Villa and Chelsea's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
65 | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | +7 |
|
10
|
52 | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | +6 |
Aston Villa and Chelsea Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Feb 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1 Feb 2026 - Premier League
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
18 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Feb 2026 - Premier League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
13 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
14 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
13 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
Aston Villa vs Chelsea Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
22 Feb 2025 - Premier League
1 Dec 2024 - Premier League
27 Apr 2024 - Premier League
7 Feb 2024 - FA Cup
26 Jan 2024 - FA Cup
Aston Villa - Chelsea: Form Analysis
Of the top five teams in the Premier League, Aston Villa look the most vulnerable right now, and their hopes of qualifying for the UCL took a major blow at the weekend when they lost to Wolves 2-0.
After their remarkable eight-match win streak between November and late-December, the Villans now look like a mid-table team, having won only two of their last seven league games (D2 L3).
The hosts have only earned four points from their last four home games (W1 D1 L2), a significant drop-off after winning eight league matches in a row at Villa Park between September and January 3.
Villa have earned the fewest points of the top 10 teams in the EPL in the last five gameweeks!
Meanwhile, Chelsea suffered their seventh defeat of the season on Sunday afternoon, going down 2-1 to Arsenal, which saw them slip to sixth place and six points behind the top four teams in the table.
That result also marked the Blues' third consecutive league game without victory, and they have now only kept one clean sheet in their last 12 top-flight matches, a 2-0 victory over Brentford in January.
The visitors’ away record has also been far from impressive of late, with only two wins in their last eight league matches (D3 L3), while they are also winless in their last two visits to this venue (D1 L1).
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Aston Villa against Chelsea Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
M. Bizot
DefenderL. Digne
P. Torres
V. Lindelof
MidfielderL. Bogarde
R. Barkley
J. Sancho
Alysson
T. Abraham
R. Sanchez
DefenderB. Badiashile
M. Sarr
T. Adarabioyo
M. Cucurella
R. Lavia
A. Santos
L. Delap
M. Guiu
Missing players
J. McGinn
B. Kamara
L. Colwill
ForwardM. Mudryk
J. Gittens
Estevao
Aston Villa & Chelsea Squad Analysis
Ollie Watkins has drawn blank in his last four league matches, but he has a good record against Chelsea, having scored four goals in his last six league games against them, including a brace in the reverse fixture.
Ross Barkley has now featured off the bench in the last four league games since returning from a knee injury, and he could be given the nod to start here, potentially in place of Emiliano Buendia, who was hooked before the hour mark at the weekend.
The hosts are expected to be missing at least five players for this match due to injury, including their skipper John McGinn, Harvey Elliot, Andres Garcia, Youri Tielemans, and Boubacar Kamara.
Joao Pedro has five goal contributions in his last five appearances against this opponent!
While the Brazilian international was kept quiet at the Emirates at the weekend, he did record eight goal contributions in his six league games (five goals, three assists) before the trip to North London.
Pedro Neto was sent off for two bookable offences in the London Derby and will serve a one-match suspension here, which could provide Alejandro Garnacho a chance to return to the starting lineup.
The visitors also have several players currently sidelined through injury, including Estevao, Marc Cucurella, Jamie Gittens, Dario Essugo and long-term absentee Levi Colwill.
Most goals and assists
Aston Villa
Chelsea
O. Watkins
(16 Goals)
Joao Pedro
(15 Goals)
L. Digne
(6 Assists)
,
M. Rogers
(6 Assists)
P. Neto
(6 Assists)
Aston Villa - Chelsea Key Points
- Six of Aston Villa’s last nine home games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Aston Villa have only kept one clean sheet in their last five league matches.
- Each of Chelsea’s last six away league games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Chelsea have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six league matches.
- Both teams have scored in five of the last six league games between these sides.
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Our Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction
After spending a considerable amount of time looking likely to challenge the top two in the league standings, Aston Villa have dropped off significantly recently and could end this week outside the top four.
Similarly, Chelsea’s dip in form saw them drop to sixth at the weekend, and they could slip to seventh with another loss here. Defensive frailties have contributed heavily to these sides’ drop-off in recent weeks - therefore, we are expecting to see a few goals in this match. Our Aston Villa vs Chelsea prediction is BTTS.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea Alternative Predictions
Over 2.5 goals
Aston Villa have only kept one clean sheet in their last five league matches, while Chelsea have failed to shut out opponents in their last six EPL games on the road. Additionally, over 2.5 goals were scored in three of the last four league matches between these sides.
Aston Villa or Draw
Aston Villa avoided defeat in their last two home games against this opponent and won the reverse fixture 2-1, while Chelsea have only won two of their last eight away league matches.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Aston Villa Chelsea
| Aston Villa vs Chelsea | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa wins | 2.69 | 2.87 | +6.7% |
| Draw | 3.69 | 3.6 | -2.4% |
| Chelsea wins | 2.69 | 2.63 | -2.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Chelsea is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 2.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 37.2% and is now 38.0% (0.8%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Aston Villa vs. Chelsea game
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Aston Villa vs Chelsea - FAQs
The Premier League match between Aston Villa and Chelsea will take place on March 4 at 19:30 GMT.
The Premier League match between Aston Villa and Chelsea will be played at Villa Park in Birmingham.
The Premier League match between Aston Villa and Chelsea will be broadcast on Sky Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Premier League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
