Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Premier League Predictions
Super Sunday in the Premier League brings us a capital clash of major consequence - it’s Arsenal taking on Chelsea in a London Derby that could tilt the top-flight’s title race. The Gunners lead the league standings, while the Blues are in fifth place after 27 games. Check out our match prediction below!
After spending almost the entire season at the summit of England’s top tier, Arsenal's wobbles in recent weeks have blown the title race wide open as we enter the final stretch of the campaign. Mikel Arteta’s side are now five points clear of Manchester City, but the Citizens have a game in hand and will meet the current league leaders on what could be a defining MD33.
Winning the EPL title may be out of reach for Chelsea, but Liam Rosenior still has a massive task on his hands in trying to secure Champions League football next season. A slip-up at the Bridge last week means the Blues enter this match three points behind Man United in fourth - a loss here could see them end the weekend in sixth. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Arsenal v Chelsea Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.61 | 4.2 | 5.4 |
|
|
1.92 | 3.81 | 3.37 |
|
|
1.57 | 4.16 | 5.7 |
|
|
1.57 | 4.16 | 5.7 |
|
|
1.6 | 4 | 5.5 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Arsenal and Chelsea?
Our prediction for the Arsenal vs Chelsea match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 01/03/2026 between Arsenal and Chelsea in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 44.06% for a win of Arsenal against Chelsea with odds of 1.92 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Arsenal vs Chelsea is 20.69% with odds of 4.32 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 35.25% chance ⭐ for a win of Chelsea vs Arsenal with odds of 5.94 at 888Starz.
Arsenal - Chelsea Prediction and Best Odds:
| Arsenal Chelsea Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 44.06% | 1.92 at 1xbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.29% | 1.93 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 57.5% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Arsenal | 16.33% | 4.75 at Bet365 |
Arsenal vs Chelsea Form
Arsenal and Chelsea's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
85 | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | +44 |
|
10
|
52 | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | +6 |
Arsenal and Chelsea Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Feb 2026 - Premier League
18 Feb 2026 - Premier League
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
12 Feb 2026 - Premier League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
8 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Feb 2026 - Premier League
18 Feb 2026 - Premier League
12 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
13 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
14 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
Arsenal vs Chelsea Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
3 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
14 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
30 Nov 2025 - Premier League
16 Mar 2025 - Premier League
10 Nov 2024 - Premier League
23 Apr 2024 - Premier League
Arsenal - Chelsea: Form Analysis
This is the second London Derby in the space of a week for Arsenal - they demolished Spurs 4-1 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last weekend to maintain their five-point advantage over Man City.
The Gunners are now unbeaten in their last five league games since losing to Manchester United last month, but during this period, they conceded two costly draws against Brentford and Wolves.
The hosts are on a four-match win streak at the Emirates Stadium in the EPL and have earned 32 points from their 13 games this season (W10 D2 L1). That loss to the Red Devils is the only one they’ve conceded at home this term.
Arsenal have conceded the fewest goals in home matches in the Prem this season (8)!
Meanwhile, Chelsea were left gutted after conceding a last-minute goal that forced them to settle for a 1-1 draw against Burnley last week. That result saw Liverpool draw level with them on 45 points.
The Blues have only suffered one loss in their last 10 matches across all competitions, but that defeat came against this very opponent in the second leg of the EFL Cup semi-finals earlier this month.
The visitors have the second-best away record (W6 D4 L3) and have scored the joint-most goals on the road in the division this season (25). However, they have lost their last three league matches at this venue.
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Arsenal against Chelsea Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
K. Arrizabalaga
DefenderC. Mosquera
R. Calafiori
MidfielderC. Norgaard
M. Lewis-Skelly
ForwardN. Madueke
G. Martinelli
G. Jesus
K. Havertz
F. Jorgensen
DefenderB. Badiashile
M. Gusto
J. Acheampong
T. Adarabioyo
R. Lavia
L. Delap
A. Garnacho
M. Guiu
Missing players
M. Odegaard
M. Merino
L. Colwill
ForwardM. Mudryk
J. Gittens
Estevao
Arsenal & Chelsea Squad Analysis
Viktor Gyokeres delivered his best performance in an Arsenal jersey last weekend, netting twice in the team’s victory over Spurs. The Swede has now scored eight goals in 2026 (all competitions), more than any other EPL player since the turn of the year.
Gooners will be hoping that Eberechi Eze’s excellent form in capital clashes continues here. The Englishman’s last 11 goals have been scored in London, with his six for Arteta’s side this season coming in London derbies.
Bukayo Saka was substituted after going down to a tackle with Xavi Simons last week, but reports suggest there was no lasting damage and he should feature here. Ben White could return to the squad, but Kai Havertz, Mikel Merino and Max Dowman are still out.
Joao Pedro has had nine goal contributions in his last six EPL matches for Chelsea!
The Brazilian is enjoying a purple patch coming into this match and has scored only one goal fewer than Gyokeres across all competitions since the start of 2026, albeit five of his last six goals have come at home.
Cole Palmer only played 30 minutes across the two legs of the EFL Cup semi-final against the Gunners due to injury. However, with over a week’s turnaround to this match, the England international should feature from the start and will be keen to add to his four goals in his last three league games.
In defence, the visitors will have to make do without Wesley Fofana (suspension), Marc Cucurella (hamstring) and Levi Colwill (knee). Filip Jorgensen and Jamie Gittens are longer-term absentees.
Most goals and assists
Arsenal
Chelsea
V. Gyokeres
(14 Goals)
Joao Pedro
(15 Goals)
L. Trossard
(6 Assists)
, 
M. Odegaard
(6 Assists)
P. Neto
(6 Assists)
Arsenal - Chelsea Key Points
- Four of Arsenal’s last six EPL games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Arsenal have scored two or more goals in seven of their last eight home league games.
- Each of Chelsea’s last five EPL games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Chelsea have only kept one clean sheet in their last six away league matches.
- Chelsea have the highest xG per 90 in the Premier League this season (1.78).
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Our Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction
While Arsenal still have the best defensive numbers in the top flight this season, they have been conceding cheaply in recent weeks, as we saw when they dropped points in the 2-2 draw against Wolves and the stalemate versus Brentford.
Chelsea have been very good in attack recently, now with the highest xG per 90 in the division. Even if the Blues leave the Emirates empty-handed this week, we feel they will get on the scoresheet. Our Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction is BTTS.
Arsenal vs Chelsea Alternative Predictions
More than 2.5 goals
Five of Arsenal’s last six league games have ended with over 2.5 goals, and they have scored two or more in seven of their last eight home league matches. Additionally, three or more goals were scored in four of Chelsea’s last five matches in the top flight.
Arsenal wins
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last eight league games against this opponent and their last 10 across all competitions. The Gunners have also only lost one home match in the Prem this season.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Arsenal Chelsea
| Arsenal vs Chelsea | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 1.92 | 1.92 | 0% |
| Draw | 3.81 | 4.32 | +13.4% |
| Chelsea wins | 3.37 | 5.94 | +76.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Arsenal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have not changed since opening
- The probability of this result was 52.1% and is now 52.1% (0.0%)
Arsenal vs Chelsea - FAQs
The Premier League match between Arsenal and Chelsea will take place on March 1 at 16:30 GMT.
The Premier League match between Arsenal and Chelsea will be played at the Emirates Stadium in London.
The Premier League match between Arsenal and Chelsea will be broadcast on Sky Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Premier League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
