Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Japan Open

Prediction published on 30/09/2026, 13:57  by Steve Ashfield | Modified on 30/09/2026 at 14:57 in Tennis Predictions

Chengdu Open champion Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is unseeded in this outdoor hard court ATP 500 tournament. Round one of the Japan Open sees him take on fellow unseeded player Matteo Berrettini. If Fokina can continue the form shown in Chengdu, then our prediction is he will win against an out-of-form Berrettini.

Round two will see the winner take on either fourth seed Rafael Jodar or qualifier Adolfo Daniel Vallejo.

Fokina beat Hubert Hurkacz in the Chengdu Open final earlier this week. That was his second ATP Tour title of 2026, the other being won on grass in Mallorca.

He had to win four matches to win the title and he only lost one set.

There's been two previous meetings between Fokina and Berrettini. One was on this surface with Berrettini winning in the US Open four years ago in five sets.

In the live rankings, Berrettini is 48th, 22 places below his opponent.

This year has seen Berrettini win five outdoor hard court matches, but he's lost the same number.

His most recent tournament saw the Italian beaten in the second round of the US Open by Mariano Navone. Four of his last five matches have seen a tie-break played, so a side bet on there being one in this match could well be a profitable one to place.