Wales vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips - Six Nations
Europe - Six Nations
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by Steve Ashfield | in Six Nations Predictions
Neither country can win the Six Nations title but a win on Saturday would mean so much to them. Bottom-of-the-table Wales are home to fourth-placed Italy. Can the Azzurri win in Cardiff? Read our match prediction below.
In terms of wins, it's been another disappointing Six Nations for Wales. All four of their matches have been lost and it would take a couple of wide-margin results for them to avoid another wooden spoon. There is a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel though after a couple of promising performances in their last two matches against Scotland and Ireland. More progress is needed this weekend.
Italy have won two of their four matches in this season's Six Nations. If Ireland were to lose to Scotland earlier in the day, the Italians could even finish third if they can beat the Welsh Dragons in Cardiff. Can they end a good Six Nations with another win?
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Wales v Italy Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.47 | 20 | 1.67 |
|
|
2.47 | 20 | 1.67 |
|
|
2.38 | 23 | 1.71 |
|
|
2.32 | 20 | 1.61 |
|
|
2.32 | 20 | 1.61 |
|
Wales vs Italy Form
Wales and Italy's standings in the Six Nations
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -38 |
|
6
|
6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -82 |
Wales and Italy Last Matches
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
6/6 (100%)
6 Mar 2026 - Six Nations
21 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
15 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
7 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
29 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
22 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
21 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
15 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
29 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
22 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
15 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
9 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
6 Mar 2026 - Six Nations
7 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
12 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
5 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
8 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
8 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
7 Mar 2026 - Six Nations
22 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
14 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
7 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
22 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
15 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
7 Mar 2026 - Six Nations
7 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
22 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
15 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
8 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
15 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
6/6 (100%)
22 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
14 Feb 2026 - Six Nations
12 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
5 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
9 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
1 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
Wales vs Italy Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
8 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
16 Mar 2024 - Six Nations
11 Mar 2023 - Six Nations
19 Mar 2022 - Six Nations
13 Mar 2021 - Six Nations
1 Feb 2020 - Six Nations
Wales - Italy: Form Analysis
Wales would hate to go through another Six Nations tournament without a win. Not since 2023 have the Welsh Dragons won a match in this tournament and that was an away win in Italy.
This year's Six Nations campaign began with two heavy defeats against England and France with 102 points conceded. That followed seeing 125 points being scored against them by New Zealand and South Africa.
Wales will look for more progress this weekend.
However, the last two matches played at home to Scotland and away to Dublin have only seen 53 points put past them. They led 17-5 against Scotland but still ended up losing by three points and by ten in Dublin.
It is progress though and they have been more competitive in those two games. Now they take on Italy who are attempting to win a third match in this year's Six Nations.
Italy have beaten both Scotland and England at home but lost away to Ireland and France. Their last away win in the Six Nations was a 24-21 win in Wales two years ago.
Although they have won twice, Italy have only scored 62 points and that's just three more than Wales. The big change is that the Azzurri have only had 86 points scored against them, the best defensive record in the championship.
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Wales & Italy Squad Analysis
Wales lost again last weekend but the signs of improvement continued. Head coach Steve Tandy may have seen his side lose all four of their Six Nations matches this year, but he’s named an unchanged starting XV for this game.
Wainwright is fit for this game.
This is the ninth game in charge for Tandy but the first time he’s named an unchanged starting line-up. It nearly wasn’t so because Aaron Wainwright has had to overcome a leg injury to be fit for the visit of Italy to Cardiff.
The only change is on the replacements bench with Blair Murray coming in for Louie Hennessey. It would take a couple of wide-margin results for Wales to avoid winning the wooden spoon but a win over Italy would be an excellent step forward for the Welsh side.
Italy will be missing tighthead prop Simone Ferrari for this game. He suffered a back injury last weekend in their home win over England. They have won their last two games against Wales and have never won three in a row.
Wales - Italy Key Points
- Under 50.5 points have been scored in all four of Italy's Six Nations games this year.
- The last two Wales matches have both seen under 50.5 points scored.
- Under 50.5 points have been scored in the last four matches between Wales and Italy.
- These are the two lowest scoring teams in this year's Six Nations and italy have the best defensive record.
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Our Wales vs Italy Prediction
Wales would hate to go through a third successive Six Nations with all five of their matches being lost. That is a distinct possibility but it's the manner in which they lose (if that is so) that would be important for all associated.
The thrashings have come to an end with narrow losses to Scotland and Ireland. Italy are chasing a third win of the campaign and that would be a massive achievement. Our main Wales v Italy prediction is under 50.5.
Wales vs Italy Alternative Predictions
Italy wins
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Wales vs Italy - FAQs
This match is being played on Saturday March 14. The match is due to start at 16:40 UK time.
Wales are the hosts in this match. The game will be played at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
