Valladolid vs CD Castellon Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga 2
Spain - LaLiga 2
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by Joseph King | in Football Predictions
Matchday 14 in LaLiga2 sees 12th-place Valladolid playing host to second-placed Castellon. Both Orelluts and Pucela are adept at creating scoring chances, while a deeper look at the underlying numbers suggests Castellon’s impressive defensive record may be due some regression. As a result, our prediction is backing a high-scoring contest.
Valladolid finished two spots above the relegation zone last season after accumulating 46 points from 42 games. They’re on a better pace this time around, averaging 1.38 points per contest so far, but they still have some work to do if they are to challenge for a promotion playoff spot. Their home matches have been full of back-and-forth action, with 4.17 average goals scored.
Castellon came up short in the promotion playoff semi-final last season after finishing sixth, losing out to Almeria. They’re back with a bang in the 2026-27 season though, and will have real aspirations of securing an automatic promotion spot with a top two finish. The last time Castellon achieved a top two finish in Spain’s second division was in 1988-89, when they finished first in the standings and won promotion to the top flight.
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Valladolid v CD Castellon Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.85 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
|
|
2.87 | 3.70 | 2.37 |
|
|
2.84 | 3.64 | 2.34 |
|
|
2.84 | 3.64 | 2.34 |
|
|
3.00 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Valladolid and CD Castellon?
Our prediction for the Valladolid vs CD Castellon match is: over 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/11/2026 between Valladolid and CD Castellon in LaLiga 2 :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 26.87% for a win of Valladolid against CD Castellon with odds of 3 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Valladolid vs CD Castellon is 26.07% with odds of 3.7 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 47.06% chance ⭐ for a win of CD Castellon vs Valladolid with odds of 2.37 at 1xbet.
Valladolid vs CD Castellon Form
Valladolid and CD Castellon's standings in the LaLiga 2
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
27 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | +18 |
|
12
|
18 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | +2 |
Valladolid and CD Castellon Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Nov 2026 - LaLiga 2
2 Nov 2026 - LaLiga 2
29 Oct 2026 - Copa del Rey
23 Oct 2026 - LaLiga 2
18 Oct 2026 - LaLiga 2
12 Oct 2026 - LaLiga 2
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Nov 2026 - LaLiga 2
18 Oct 2026 - LaLiga 2
12 Oct 2026 - LaLiga 2
27 Sept 2026 - LaLiga 2
13 Sept 2026 - LaLiga 2
5 Sept 2026 - LaLiga 2
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Nov 2026 - LaLiga 2
29 Oct 2026 - Copa del Rey
23 Oct 2026 - LaLiga 2
4 Oct 2026 - LaLiga 2
20 Sept 2026 - LaLiga 2
30 Aug 2026 - LaLiga 2
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2026 - LaLiga 2
29 Oct 2026 - Copa del Rey
25 Oct 2026 - LaLiga 2
17 Oct 2026 - LaLiga 2
11 Oct 2026 - LaLiga 2
4 Oct 2026 - LaLiga 2
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Oct 2026 - LaLiga 2
4 Oct 2026 - LaLiga 2
19 Sept 2026 - LaLiga 2
6 Sept 2026 - LaLiga 2
23 Aug 2026 - LaLiga 2
8 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2026 - LaLiga 2
29 Oct 2026 - Copa del Rey
17 Oct 2026 - LaLiga 2
11 Oct 2026 - LaLiga 2
28 Sept 2026 - LaLiga 2
12 Sept 2026 - LaLiga 2
Valladolid vs CD Castellon Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
8 Feb 2026 - LaLiga 2
22 Aug 2025 - LaLiga 2
Valladolid - CD Castellon: Form Analysis
Valladolid come into this fixture in fine form, racking up three straight wins across all competitions. In the league, they’ve won their last two consecutive outings, beating Leganés 4-3 at home which they followed up with a 2-1 away victory over Sporting Gijon.
They’ve been a different beast at the Zorrilla this season, winning four of six matches compared to their 1-3-3 away record. Valladolid’s goal scoring form has also been night and day when playing at home, with 15 of their 22 total goals coming in front of the local crowd.
Valladolid rank second in LaLiga2 for big chances created with 34, just one ahead of Castellón in fourth on 33.
Castellón kicked off the season in red-hot form, going unbeaten in their first seven league matches, winning six and drawing once. Since then, they’ve seen their form even out, although they’ve remained a very difficult team to beat.
Castellón are coming off a 1-1 away draw with Burgos, which saw Matias Orozco sent off in the 60th minute. It extended the visitors’ unbeaten run to four games across all competitions, but they’ve now won only twice in their last five LaLiga2 fixtures (D2, L1).
Castellón have been hugely impressive away from home this season, where they’ve racked up five wins, one draw and only one defeat in seven trips so far. Their promotion charge has been built off of their defensive foundation, which has seen the visitors concede a league-low five goals in 12 matches.
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Valladolid vs CD Castellon last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
D. Martin
DefenderA. Perez Campo
R. Martinez Gil
M. Lachuer
I. Munoz
MidfielderP. Tomeo
R. Ito
Y. Cabanzon
D. Perez
ForwardV. Moreno
L. Rodriguez Chacon
R. van Duiven
A. Saipi
DefenderF. Ceccherini
L. Alcazar
M. Conde Gomez
I. Kostis
J. Nieto
MidfielderA. Gala
J. Vlak
ForwardA. Garcia
R. Rego
D. Nzanza
R. Sanchez
Valladolid & CD Castellon Squad Analysis
Valladolid manager Fran Escriba will be without three players for Saturday’s match. Defender Ivan Alejo is serving a one game suspension after an accumulation of yellow cards, while striker Juanmi Latasa remains out with a muscle injury. Guille Bueno remains a long term injury following an ACL injury.
The injury to Latasa forced a formation reshuffle in recent games. Originally lining up in a 4-1-3-2, Escriba has been experimenting with a 4-3-1-2 and, in their last outing, a 4-3-3 formation. He could opt to continue with the 4-3-3, which consists of a young front line including Levante loanee Tay Abed, who has scored in two consecutive starts, along with 19-year-olds Victor Fernandez (on loan from Valencia) and leading scorer Adrian Arnuncio.
Behind them, Frenchman Julien Ponceau pulls the strings and leads the team in goal involvements with three goals and six assists in 13 appearances.
The visitors will be without two key players in Matias Ozorco and Ousmane Nana Camara.
Ozorco, the 18-year-old Brighton loanee, is serving a suspension following his red card last time out. Striker Camara has been out since the end of September and he’s listed as doubtful here.
Picking up the attacking slack has been Israel Suero, who has put in a number of brilliant performances in recent weeks. The number 10 is in fine form, scoring five goals in his last six appearances.
Goalkeeper Romain Matthys has been one of the visitors best players this season and has racked up seven clean sheets in 12 outings.
Most goals and assists
Valladolid
CD Castellon
A. Arnu
(5 Goals)
I. Suero
(6 Goals)
V. Fernandez
(6 Assists)
M. Orozco
(3 Assists)
Valladolid and CD Castellon Stats in LaLiga 2
Valladolid - CD Castellon Key Points
- Castellón have conceded five goals against an expected goals against figure of 12.4, suggesting defensive regression is due.
- Valladolid have generated 34 big scoring chances this season while Castellon have 33, the second and fourth most in the league.
- Five of Valladolid’s six home LaLiga2 matches have finished with over 2.5 goals.
- Valladolid’s 4.17 average total goals at home is the most in the division.
- Castellón and Valladolid rank second and third, respectively, in xG with 22.3 and 20.9.
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Our Valladolid vs CD Castellon Prediction
Castellón’s defensive record is the obvious argument against this over. And while they are undoubtedly brilliant defensively, they have been running about seven goals better than expectation based on their 12.4 xGA figure. This is the fixture to test that, against a side that ranks second for big chances created and has averaged over four goals per home game at the Zorrilla.
Both teams are capable of generating high xG scoring attempts which has us backing this one to land over the number. Our Valladolid vs Castellón prediction: over 2.5 goals.
Valladolid vs CD Castellon Alternative Predictions
Draw
This looks an evenly-matched contest between two in-form sides. Valladolid have won their last three straight while Castellón are unbeaten in four across all competitions. The hosts are a much-improved side at home while Castellón have proven extremely difficult to beat this season and have been getting results on the road. It’s tough to choose between these two teams, and a share of the spoils looks a fair compromise.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
