Union Berlin vs Schalke 04 Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Bundesliga matchday three starts on Friday with a game between two struggling units, Union Berlin and Schalke, looking for their first win of the 2026-27 league campaign. This match in Berlin between the 15th-placed 'Iron Ones' and the 14th-placed 'Royal Blues' is likely to be a low-scoring one, and our prediction is under 2.5 goals.
Ahead of this round, both teams have one point (D1, L1) and are only marginally ahead of the bottom-three clubs: Hoffenheim, Monchengladbach, and Hamburger.
Union lost 4-0 away at Leverkusen last weekend, following a 3-3 draw at home against Eintracht Frankfurt on matchday one. The seven goals they conceded rank them among the most porous defenses in the season, which is a concern for the hosts.
Their lone point came at home, though, and playing in Berlin suits Union, who have avoided defeat in four of their last five home league games (W1, D3, L1).
Back in the top flight after a three-season absence, Schalke did the unthinkable on matchday two, holding Bayern Munich to a 0-0 home draw. However, they are one of the three clubs without a goal, after they lost 3-0 on matchday one.
That defeat came on the road, and even in their title-winning run in the second division last year, Schalke won only eight of 17 league trips (D4, L5).
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Union Berlin v Schalke 04 Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.39 | 3.45 | 3.10 |
|
|
2.29 | 3.33 | 3.30 |
|
|
2.35 | 3.36 | 3.02 |
|
|
2.35 | 3.36 | 3.02 |
|
|
2.34 | 3.28 | 3.10 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Union Berlin and Schalke 04?
Our prediction for the Union Berlin vs Schalke 04 match is: under 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/09/2026 between Union Berlin and Schalke 04 in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 30.17% for a win of Union Berlin against Schalke 04 with odds of 2.41 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Union Berlin vs Schalke 04 is 30.16% with odds of 3.5 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 39.67% chance ⭐ for a win of Schalke 04 vs Union Berlin with odds of 3.3 at 1xbet.
Union Berlin - Schalke 04 Prediction and Best Odds:
| Union Berlin Schalke 04 Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 wins | 39.67% | 3.30 at 1xbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.65% | 1.95 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 61.67% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Schalke 04/Schalke 04 | 14.84% | 5.10 at Shangrila |
Union Berlin vs Schalke 04 Form
Union Berlin and Schalke 04's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
16
|
6 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 |
|
17
|
6 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 |
Union Berlin and Schalke 04 Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2026 - Bundesliga
29 Aug 2026 - Bundesliga
23 Aug 2026 - DFB Pokal
15 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Aug 2026 - Bundesliga
15 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
16 May 2026 - Bundesliga
2 May 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2026 - Bundesliga
23 Aug 2026 - DFB Pokal
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
18 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
17 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
12 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2026 - Bundesliga
30 Aug 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Aug 2026 - DFB Pokal
16 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2026 - Bundesliga
16 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
25 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
17 May 2026 - 2. Bundesliga
2 May 2026 - 2. Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Aug 2026 - DFB Pokal
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
22 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
19 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
11 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
Union Berlin vs Schalke 04 Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
67 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
19 Feb 2023 - Bundesliga
27 Aug 2022 - Bundesliga
13 Feb 2021 - Bundesliga
18 Oct 2020 - Bundesliga
7 Jun 2020 - Bundesliga
29 Nov 2019 - Bundesliga
Union Berlin against Schalke 04 Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 2
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
M. Raab
DefenderC. Trimmel
MidfielderT. Skarke
A. Schafer
Z. Van Den Bosch
J. Haberer
L. Guther
M. Ljubicic
R. Skov
K. Muller
DefenderM. Ayhan
V. Becker
M. Wober
E. Ebimbe
L. Vozar
H. Hee-chan
J. Bachmann
E. Dzeko
Missing players
M. Friedrich
S. Nsoki
A. Markgraf
ForwardO. Burke
A. Ilic
A. Gantenbein
MidfielderR. Schallenberg
ForwardB. Lasme
E. Hojlund
Most goals and assists
Union Berlin
Schalke 04
T. Skarke
(2 Goals)
R. Gosens
(1 Goals)
, 
M. Wober
(1 Goals)
, 
A. Aouchiche
(1 Goals)
, 
A. Gantenbein
(1 Goals)
J. Juranovic
(2 Assists)
H. Hee-chan
(1 Assists)
,
J. Adamu
(1 Assists)
Union Berlin - Schalke 04 Key Points
- Union scored under 1.5 goals in six of their last nine Bundesliga home games.
- Schalke haven’t scored in four of their last five matches, including both Bundesliga games.
- Six of Schalke’s last 12 away league games, including both divisions, produced under 2.5 goals.
- Four of the last five head-to-head matches have seen fewer than three goals scored.
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Our Union Berlin vs Schalke 04 Prediction
It's still early days in the league with only two games, but with 2.2 and 2.3 expected goals (xG), respectively, Union and Schalke are among the sides creating low-quality chances. Schalke average 3.0 shots on target per game so far and are yet to find the back of the net. The union are slightly better with three goals scored, all coming on matchday one.
Four of the last five Bundesliga games between these sides, albeit between 2020 and 2023, have been low-scoring. That could continue here, which is why our Union Berlin vs Schalke 04 prediction is under 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Union Berlin Schalke 04
| Union Berlin vs Schalke 04 | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin wins | 2.04 | 2.41 | +18.1% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.50 | -2.8% |
| Schalke 04 wins | 3.76 | 3.30 | -12.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Schalke 04 is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 12.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 26.6% and is now 30.3% (3.7%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
