Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction & Betting Tips - Ligue 1
France - Ligue 1
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by Nella Wagah | in Ligue 1 Predictions
Lyon will be looking to confirm Champions League qualification when they travel to Toulouse in the French Ligue 1 this weekend. They enter this match in third place in the standings and almost 20 points clear of their 10th-placed hosts. Current form and H2H dominance lead to an away win prediction.
Toulouse aren’t playing for much in the remaining fixtures other than a better league finish. Les Violets are 14 points adrift of the European places and 13 clear of the drop zone.
They have racked up 41 points thanks to 11 wins and eight draws. Carles Martinez Novell’s men were able to snap a five-game run without a win last time out after overcoming Strasbourg 2-1 on the road.
Lyon lost 2-1 at home to Toulouse in the reverse meeting. That loss brought to an end an 18-game run without a defeat in this fixture.
They will be keen to avoid another setback, which will incredibly hamper their chances of qualifying for the Champions League. Les Gones are already assured of a Conference League spot but not a top-three finish.
With 60 points, they are just two points ahead of fourth-placed Lille with two rounds left to play. Paulo Fonseca’s men made it four wins in a row when they defeated Rennes 4-2 last time out.
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Toulouse v Lyon Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.2 | 3.9 | 1.83 |
|
|
4.16 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
|
|
4.16 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
|
|
4 | 3.7 | 1.83 |
|
|
4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Toulouse and Lyon?
Our prediction for the Toulouse vs Lyon match is: Lyon wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/05/2026 between Toulouse and Lyon in Ligue 1 :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 28.23% for a win of Toulouse against Lyon with odds of 4.4 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Toulouse vs Lyon is 31.87% with odds of 4.02 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 39.9% chance ⭐ for a win of Lyon vs Toulouse with odds of 1.87 at 888Starz.
Toulouse - Lyon Prediction and Best Odds:
| Toulouse Lyon Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon wins | 39.9% | 1.87 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | 1.91 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 55.42% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Lyon/Lyon | 18.85% | 2.88 at Bet365 |
Toulouse vs Lyon Form
Toulouse and Lyon's standings in the Ligue 1
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
60 | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | +13 |
|
10
|
44 | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | +1 |
Toulouse and Lyon Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Ligue 1
25 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Apr 2026 - French Cup
17 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
12 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
3 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
12 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
7 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Feb 2026 - French Cup
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Apr 2026 - French Cup
17 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
3 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
15 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Mar 2026 - French Cup
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Ligue 1
25 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
19 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
12 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
5 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Ligue 1
25 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
12 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
19 Mar 2026 - Europa League
8 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
5 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
15 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
12 Mar 2026 - Europa League
1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lyon Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
17 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
5 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
18 Jan 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Sept 2024 - Ligue 1
15 Mar 2024 - Ligue 1
10 Dec 2023 - Ligue 1
14 Apr 2023 - Ligue 1
Toulouse against Lyon Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
K. Haug
DefenderD. Sidibe
W. Kamanzi
S. Koumbassa
A. Francis
P. Diop
E. Da Silva
J. Vignolo
I. Azizi
R. Descamps
DefenderR. Kluivert
N. Tagliafico
H. Hateboer
MidfielderM. De Carvalho
N. Nartey
P. Sulc
E. Nuamah
M. Fofana
Missing players
M. Sauer
R. Messali
O. Mangala
T. Tessmann
ForwardR. Himbert
Most goals and assists
Toulouse
Lyon
Y. Gboho
(8 Goals)
C. Tolisso
(11 Goals)
, 
P. Sulc
(11 Goals)
S. Hidalgo
(5 Assists)
A. Moreira
(7 Assists)
, 
Endrick
(7 Assists)
Toulouse - Lyon Key Points
- Lyon have won four matches in a row.
- Four of Toulouse’s last six fixtures ended in defeat.
- Toulouse have conceded two or more goals five times in their last six games.
- Seven of the last 10 meetings between Lyon and Toulouse were won by the former.
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Our Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction
Our prediction for Toulouse v Lyon is that Lyon wins. Toulouse won their last game and will have some bit of momentum from that. They, however, hadn’t won in five games leading up to that win and had lost four times.
The hosts are still a fragile opponent, and as they are coming up against an in-form team, defeat is a reality. Lyon have the third most wins in Ligue 1 this term and are on a four-game winning streak. They are also one of the better scoring sides, whereas Toulouse have a porous rearguard.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Toulouse Lyon
| Toulouse vs Lyon | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse wins | 3.55 | 4.4 | +23.9% |
| Draw | 3.55 | 4.02 | +13.2% |
| Lyon wins | 1.98 | 1.87 | -5.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Lyon is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 5.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 50.5% and is now 53.5% (3.0%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
