St. Pauli vs Leipzig Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Leipzig will look to revive their title challenge against a relegation-threatened St Pauli as Bundesliga resumes on matchday 16. This match on Saturday in Hamburg between the 16th-placed ‘Neighbourhood Kickers’ and the fourth-placed ‘Red Bulls’ comes with our prediction of over 2.5 goals scored.
With 12 points from 15 matches (W3, D3, L9), St. Pauli are in the relegation play-off spot, two points behind automatic safety. Leipzig’s 29 points (W9, D2, L4) see them end 2025 three points behind second-placed Borussia Dortmund.
St Pauli drew 0-0 away at Mainz to end 2025 with five points from three league games (W1, D2). That run has breathed life back into their campaign that threw them into the danger zone with nine consecutive league defeats.
Their recent win came at this venue, but four defeats in a row prior to that victory suggest St Pauli are still vulnerable playing at home.
Leipzig lost consecutive games by a 3-1 scoreline to Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen to finish 2025 on a disappointing note. They are still one of the best scoring sides in the league, having netted 30 goals in the season.
Concerns remain over their away form, as Leipzig were winless in their last three competitive trips (D1, L2). That said, four wins in five prior trips (D1) suggest Leipzig can bounce back here.
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The Best Betting Odds for St. Pauli v Leipzig Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.1 | 3.75 | 1.85 |
|
|
3.75 | 3.6 | 1.95 |
|
|
3.75 | 3.4 | 1.91 |
|
|
4 | 3.65 | 1.85 |
|
|
3.8 | 3.6 | 1.91 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between St. Pauli and Leipzig?
Our prediction for the St. Pauli vs Leipzig match is: more than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/01/2026 between St. Pauli and Leipzig in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 23.03% for a win of St. Pauli against Leipzig with odds of 4.35 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between St. Pauli vs Leipzig is 31.85% with odds of 3.84 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 45.13% chance ⭐ for a win of Leipzig vs St. Pauli with odds of 1.95 at Betfred.
St. Pauli - Leipzig Prediction and Best Odds:
| St. Pauli Leipzig Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Leipzig wins | 45.13% | 1.95 at Betfred |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.75% | 2.03 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | 1.7 at Betway |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Leipzig | 17.93% | 5.1 at Unibet |
St. Pauli vs Leipzig Form
St. Pauli and Leipzig's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
29 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
|
16
|
12 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -13 |
St. Pauli and Leipzig Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
13 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
29 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
13 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
23 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
19 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
29 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
9 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
25 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
12 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
28 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
23 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
23 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
18 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
8 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
25 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
St. Pauli vs Leipzig Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
33 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
9 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Oct 2024 - DFB Pokal
22 Sept 2024 - Bundesliga
St. Pauli vs Leipzig last Lineups
Formation : 3 - 3 - 2 - 2
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Missing players
S. Spari
DefenderD. Nemeth
B. Henrichs
MidfielderV. Gebel
A. Ouedraogo
R. Baku
ForwardA. Nusa
Most goals and assists
St. Pauli
Leipzig
M. Kaars
(4 Goals)
C. Baumgartner
(10 Goals)
J. Fujita
(4 Assists)
C. Baumgartner
(4 Assists)
St. Pauli - Leipzig Key Points
- Leipzig’s matches averaged 3.27 goals per game in this campaign.
- Over their last eight league games, Leipzig’s matches saw 3.75 goals scored per match.
- St. Pauli’s home matches this season averaged 3.29 goals per game.
- Six of St. Pauli’s last seven home league games saw over 2.5 goals scored.
- In nine of Leipzig’s last 11 competitive matches, at least three goals were scored.
- Four of Leipzig’s last five away matches saw at least four goals scored.
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Our St. Pauli vs Leipzig Prediction
Leipzig would have welcomed the break as their form tapered towards the end of 2025. Finishing the year with two back-to-back league losses hurt their hopes of being the closest challengers to Bayern Munich. The visitors also need to improve their away form, while St Pauli did no harm to their season by picking up five points from their last three league matches.
Regardless of the results they produced, both these teams have been consistently involved in high-scoring games. That’s why our St. Pauli vs Leipzig prediction is more than 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis St. Pauli Leipzig
| St. Pauli vs Leipzig | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli wins | 3.6 | 4.1 | +13.9% |
| Draw | 3.7 | 3.75 | +1.4% |
| Leipzig wins | 1.95 | 1.85 | -5.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Leipzig is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 5.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 51.3% and is now 54.1% (2.8%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the St. Pauli vs. Leipzig game!
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
