St. Pauli vs Hamburg Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Bundesliga’s matchday 19 will see the Hamburg derby played out on Friday between St Pauli and Hamburg, with both teams struggling to move away from the relegation threat. This match between the 18th-placed ‘Neighbourhood Kickers’ and the 14th-placed ‘Red Shorts’ comes with our prediction of both teams scoring goals.
With 12 points from 17 matches (W3, D3, L11), St Pauli are stuck at the bottom of the Bundesliga table, four points adrift of the safety zone. Hamburg’s 17 points from 17 games (W4, D5, L8) keep them four points above the relegation zone.
St Pauli were edged 3-2 away at Borussia Dortmund last weekend for back-to-back defeats in the league. This sequence has taken the sheen off a four-game unbeaten run (W2, D2) that promised to move them up the table.
Two wins in the last four competitive home games (L2) is still a good base to build on, as St Pauli look to move towards safety.
Hamburg had a 0-0 home draw against Monchengladbach last weekend for an eighth point in their last six league games (W2, D2, L2). This mini-run has seen them inch away from the relegation zone, although not too far.
Being on the road is still a challenge for Hamburg, who have lost six of their last seven league trips, including five in a row.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
St. Pauli v Hamburg Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3 | 3 | 2.7 |
|
|
2.85 | 2.9 | 2.81 |
|
|
2.98 | 2.94 | 2.66 |
|
|
2.8 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
|
|
2.78 | 2.88 | 2.78 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between St. Pauli and Hamburg?
Our prediction for the St. Pauli vs Hamburg match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 23/01/2026 between St. Pauli and Hamburg in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 39.96% for a win of St. Pauli against Hamburg with odds of 3 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between St. Pauli vs Hamburg is 24.69% with odds of 3.01 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 35.35% chance ⭐ for a win of Hamburg vs St. Pauli with odds of 2.9 at 888Starz.
St. Pauli - Hamburg Prediction and Best Odds:
| St. Pauli Hamburg Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli wins | 39.96% | 3 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.86% | 1.94 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: St. Pauli | 17.76% | 6.5 at LSbet |
St. Pauli vs Hamburg Form
St. Pauli and Hamburg's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
13
|
38 | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -14 |
|
18
|
26 | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -31 |
St. Pauli and Hamburg Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
13 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
13 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
23 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
19 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
29 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
10 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
13 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
7 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
3 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
7 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
3 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
30 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
12 Nov 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
13 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
22 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
18 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
St. Pauli vs Hamburg Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
29 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
3 May 2024 - 2. Bundesliga
1 Dec 2023 - 2. Bundesliga
St. Pauli against Hamburg Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Substitutes
B. Voll
DefenderT. Ando
J. Robatsch
L. Ritzka
M. Saliakas
MidfielderR. Jones
J. Irvine
A. Ceesay
D. Sinani
S. Tangvik
DefenderD. Elfadli
G. Gocholeishvili
W. Mikelbrencis
MidfielderA. Sambi Lokonga
J. Dompe
R. Philippe
F. Balde
R. Glatzel
Missing players
S. Spari
DefenderD. Nemeth
MidfielderC. Metcalfe
ForwardA. Hountondji
A. Gronbaek
ForwardY. Poulsen
Most goals and assists
St. Pauli
Hamburg
D. Sinani
(5 Goals)
F. Vieira
(7 Goals)
J. Fujita
(3 Assists)
F. Vieira
(5 Assists)
St. Pauli - Hamburg Key Points
- Six of St. Pauli’s last seven competitive matches produced goals from both teams.
- St. Pauli have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their eight home competitive matches this season.
- Seven of Hamburg’s last nine Bundesliga matches produced goals from both teams.
- In four of their last five away league games, Hamburg scored exactly once with those four games seeing BTTS.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our St. Pauli vs Hamburg Prediction
When the Hamburg derby was played out earlier in the season, St Pauli won 2-0. Interestingly, that remains just one of the three wins that St Pauli posted this season, while Hamburg are not far off with only four victories to their name. St. Pauli have seen the positives of a four-game unbeaten run slip into two successive losses, while Hamburg are on a five-game losing streak on the road in the Bundesliga.
Both teams have struggled defensively, so our St. Pauli vs Hamburg prediction is BTTS.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis St. Pauli Hamburg
| St. Pauli vs Hamburg | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli wins | 2.42 | 3 | +24.0% |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.01 | -10.1% |
| Hamburg wins | 3.05 | 2.9 | -4.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- St. Pauli is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 24.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 41.3% and is now 33.3% (-8.0%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
