The Rugby Championship 2025 Predictions & Betting tips

Find our free Rugby Championship 2025 (also known as Four Nations) winner predictions, as well as our expert’s analysis on all the 2025 Rugby Championship matches. You’re sure to find all the information needed for your sports bets!

The Rugby Championship 2025 presentation and predictions

The Rugby Championship predictions

Be sure not to miss The Rugby Championship (TRC) 2025! From 16 August, with the opening match between South Africa and Australia, to 04 October 2025, with the final match between Argentina and South Africa, these fast-paced weeks will thrill rugby fans everywhere.

The newly formed Rugby Championship which was created in 1996 (also referred to as the Four Nations to avoid confusion with the other Rugby league competitions) which brings together the best teams from the southern hemisphere: New Zealand, South Africa, Australia and Argentina who joined in 2012. The league format consists of each team playing three times at home and three times away. This can be reduced to twice in World Cup years. The next one will take place in 2027, so the basic format will apply.

So, are you ready to discover more? On this page dedicated to The Rugby Championship 2025, we tell you everything you need to know about predictions, favourites, the calendar, statistics and other tips!

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Our free prediction for The Rugby Championship 2025 winner

The Rugby Championship winner prediction

Which nation will win the 2025 edition and succeed South Africa? Last year, the Springboks ended New Zealand's 3-year reign (2021, 2022 and 2023).

South Africa won 5 of their 6 matches in 2024, losing by just one point to Argentina (29-28) in the return leg. With a 2-match lead over New Zealand, the tournament was won hands down.

With a comeback to the top echelons of world rugby, South Africa could once again claim the trophy. Especially as their 3 summer test matches resulted in 3 victories, sweeping aside Italy and Georgia.

But watch out for the All-Blacks, who remain the best team in the world and are coming off 3 straight wins over France in July. They'll be keen to get their due back and win their 10th title in the last 13 editions. Our 2025 Rugby Championship prediction: New Zealand wins!

The Rugby Championship 2025 - odds to win the title

New Zealand - 1.85
South Africa - 2.25
Australia - 11.00
Argentina - 34.00

Odds taken from Bet365

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Beginner's Guide - how does The Rugby Championship work?

If you're not a great expert on The Rugby Championship, a brief explanation of how the event works may prove useful, and can also serve as a reminder for fans.

In terms of tournament format, The Rugby Championship takes the form of a mini-championship, in which each team plays all its opponents twice, over the course of six weeks of competition.

At the end of the championship, the team that finishes top of the table is declared the winner of The Rugby Championship, a prestigious title in the world of rugby union. This year, for the 30th edition, the competition will run from 16 August to 04 October 2025. So there's no shortage of opportunities to bet on rugby.

As far as the rules are concerned, a win earns four points in The Rugby Championship and a draw two points. A team that scores at least three more tries than its opponent in a match gets an attacking bonus point, and a team that loses by seven points or less gets a defensive bonus point.

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How to make good predictions on The Rugby Championship matches?

Predictions - The Rugby Championship

To make the right predictions for the matches in the Rugby Championship, there are several factors to consider to have the most accurate analysis possible of the match you wish to bet on. Here are the most important ones, according to our international rugby experts:

Takie into account the venue of the match during The Rugby Championship
Observe the opposing team
Know the strengths of the nations
Analyse the usual tactics of the teams taking part in the tournament
Determine what is at stake in the match
Take the psychological context into account

By following these six recommendations for your Rugby Championship bets, you'll be able to anticipate the most likely scenario for the 2025 Rugby Championship more easily. As a result, you'll be able to increase your betting success rate at online betting sites. For more details on each of these tips, simply read on.

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Take into account the venue of the match during The Rugby Championship

First of all, as our specialists made clear in their prediction of the winner, the venue of the match is obviously of considerable importance. In rugby, more than in any other sport, home advantage is often crucial to the outcome of a match.

Familiarity with the pitch, the fervour of the fans, increased motivation, all these factors influence the outcome of matches. So, when making your predictions for 2025, give preference to the hosts' successes when a match promises to be close.

Observe the opposing team

The second important point for a successful Rugby Championship 2025 prediction is the form of the teams you are betting on. By this, we mean that it's vital to check whether there are any injuries on either side or even suspensions in the most extreme cases.

On the South African side, for example, the unavailability of a key player is something to watch out for. For example, the presence or absence of Cheslin Kolbe (2024 South African Men’s Player of the Year) will always have an influence on the outcome of a match involving the Springboks. If he were to miss out, South Africa’s attacking threat would take a noticeable hit. This is something you should take into account if you find yourself betting on the Over/Under or for South Africa to cover a large handicap. This parameter is all the more important given that there can sometimes be more than ten days between two matches. This increases the risk of unavailability, or even poor form, which makes it crucial.

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Know the strengths of the nations

The Rugby Championship betting tips and advices

Another factor to take into account is the strength of the competing nations.

The average number of points per match in last year's edition was 53, which should give you some idea of what to look out for when placing your rugby bets. Some teams are much more efficient than others, such as South Africa and New Zealand, who scored 188 and 175 points respectively last year. Argentina, who conceded 195 points in 2024, 94 in 2022 (in three games) and 203 in 2022, also tend to produce high-scoring matches every year.

So check the stats of both teams before you place your bet. It could save you a few euros, especially if you like to bet on the number of points scored in a match.

Analyse the usual tactics of the teams taking part in the tournament

As a fourth tip, don't forget to find out what tactics the teams usually use. Does one team prefer to play on the left wing? Perhaps one team has an exceptionally gifted kicker? Or does one team usually shine in the scrum? These are just some of the questions you need to ask yourself to determine what kind of matches to expect during the 2025 Rugby Championship.

For example, this will give you an idea of the number of points that could potentially be scored, so you can make the best bets on handicaps. Bear in mind that 50% of matches last year ended with a winning margin of fifteen points or more. This should help you make your predictions on the scores in the 2025 Rugby Championship.

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Determine what's at stake in the match

The penultimate key factor is what is really at stake in the match. While every match in the Rugby Championship is worth the same number of points, not all matches have the same flavour for the different teams involved.

Let's imagine that the Australian team is out of contention to win the tournament, while New Zealand must win to claim the trophy. In such an encounter, the players of the New Zealand team could be more motivated and win by a greater margin than expected on their home turf at the Eden Park. This is not an uncommon occurrence in the competition, so don't forget to take this parameter into account. It can often help you avoid nasty surprises.

Take the psychological context into account

Last but certainly not least, you also need to consider the psychological context surrounding the match you want to bet on.

For example, is there a historic rivalry between the two teams (e.g.South Africa-New Zealand)? Is one nation still reeling from a humiliating defeat at the hands of its opponent? Did the players involved make any prickly statements before the match? These are all possibilities that should not be discounted, as they have a big impact on the motivation of the players on the pitch and therefore on the success of your rugby prediction. The psychology of a game is not to be underestimated.

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What not to do for your Rugby Championship predictions

The advice given above by our experts is sure to come in handy when making your Rugby Championship 2025 predictions. There are some things you should not do, however, if you want to be even more successful at this tournament. They are :

Betting without knowing the rules of rugby and how the Rugby Championship works
Betting money you're not prepared to lose
Not taking into account the history of the teams in the tournament
Make a live bet without basing it on certain factors (weather, changes, cards, etc.)
Betting too early on a match
Betting to make up for a lost bet
Blindly betting on your home country team without any research

You now know how to avoid being taken for a ride by avoiding certain mistakes when betting on the Rugby Championship 2025. Try to remember them when placing your bets this year.

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The Rugby Championship: statistics you need to know

Rugby Championship 2025 statistics

Another aspect that is likely to be of great use to you in your betting strategies on The Rugby Championship: statistics. The following data relate to the last edition, played in 2024:

Average points per match: 53.33 points
Average 1st half points scored: 31.83 points
Average 2nd half points scored: 23.17 points
Average tries scored at home: 7.12 tries/game
Match with +3.5 points difference: 75%
Match with +6.5 points difference: 58%
Match with +14.5 points difference: 50%
Matches with most points in 1st half: 42%
Matches with most points in 2nd half: 43%
Matches with the same number of points in each half: 15%
Average home point spread: -4
Average away point spread: +4
Home team record (Win-Loss): 7W-5L
Away team record (Win-Loss): 5W-7L
Average margin of victory (home team): +7.33 points
Matches that finished over the posted total: 58.3%
Matches that finished under the posted total: 41.7%

As you can see from the above figures, the 2024 TRC saw teams come out of the gates quickly and put up roughly 27% more points in the 1st half when compared to the 2nd half. Many of the games in the previous edition of the competion turned out to either be blowouts, or closely contested right until the final whistle. Five of the 12 total games were decided by 7 points or fewer, while six were decided by a 15-point or larger margin.

We can also see that it was, overall, a fairly high-scoring TRC in 2024. Seven of the 12 matches finished over the posted betting total. Teams playing on their home soil also had a definitive advantage, winning 58% of their matches in the competition last year. Be sure to keep these numbers in mind when betting on the 2025 Rugby World Championship!

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In short: how to make the right predictions for The Rugby Championship 2025?

To make the right prediction for the The Rugby Championship 2025, follow the advice of our competition experts.

Remember to take into account the absence of key players, find out about the tournament, follow the form of the teams, watch the head-to-heads between the teams or compare the Rugby Championship odds between bookmakers to get the best possible winnings.

In addition, don't hesitate to use the statistics to spot the most interesting predictions to try! You're now ready to place your bets on the tournament. Happy betting!

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