Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction & Betting Tips - Copa del Rey
Spain - Copa del Rey
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Football Predictions
Real Sociedad will be looking to make home advantage count when they welcome Athletic Club for the return leg of their Copa del Rey semi-final. They lead the tie 1-0 after a hard-fought victory in the reverse leg two weeks ago. Read on for our prediction of the match.
Real Sociedad have one foot in the final and now seek to get the job done at home. Pellegrino Matarazzo’s men have stuttered, though, since that first-leg win and have won just once in the subsequent three fixtures.
That win came last time out in the league as they defeated Mallorca 1-0 away from home. La Real have been in strong form at home and host this match having not lost any of their last six games at San Sebastian.
Athletic Bilbao have their work cut out. They have to win by two clear goals to progress. Winners of the cup just two seasons ago, Bilbao haven’t won any of the last four matches against their Basque rivals.
Their away record in Sociedad is even more disheartening. The Lions haven’t won away in this fixture since 2017 and have lost six of the nine matches in this period.
Ernesto Valverde’s men responded to the first-leg loss by going unbeaten in their follow-up three fixtures. Bilbao drew 1-1 over the weekend at Rayo Vallecano in the league after back-to-back wins.
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Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.35 | 3.4 | 3.05 |
|
|
2.34 | 3.3 | 3.09 |
|
|
2.35 | 3.3 | 3.08 |
|
|
2.25 | 3.3 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.32 | 3.3 | 3 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Real Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao?
Our prediction for the Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao match is: less than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/03/2026 between Real Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao in Copa del Rey :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 42.94% for a win of Real Sociedad against Athletic Bilbao with odds of 2.38 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao is 29.96% with odds of 3.5 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 27.11% chance ⭐ for a win of Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad with odds of 3.15 at Tonybet.
Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao Prediction and Best Odds:
| Real Sociedad Athletic Bilbao Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad wins | 42.94% | 2.38 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.76% | 2.06 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 86.25% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Real Sociedad | 19.24% | 6 at LSbet |
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Form
Real Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
21 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
14 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
11 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
7 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
4 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
7 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
25 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
18 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
13 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
14 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
11 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
4 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
1 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
9 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
20 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
15 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
11 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
8 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
4 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
11 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
8 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
1 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
22 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
15 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
4 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
24 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
11 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
1 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
4 May 2025 - LaLiga
24 Nov 2024 - LaLiga
13 Jan 2024 - LaLiga
Real Sociedad against Athletic Bilbao Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
A. Remiro
DefenderA. Munoz
A. Elustondo
D. Caleta-Car
MidfielderL. Sucic
A. Zakharyan
P. Marin
Wesley
Y. Herrera
B. Mendez
ForwardO. Oskarsson
U. Simon
DefenderJ. Areso
A. Boiro
I. Lekue
MidfielderS. Sanchez Camilo
U. Gomez
I. Ruiz De Galarreta
M. Vesga
R. Navarro
N. Serrano
U. Izeta
Missing players
A. Odriozola
I. Ruperez Urtasun
MidfielderT. Kubo
Y. Alvarez
U. Egiluz
MidfielderB. Prados
ForwardN. Williams
M. Sannadi
Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao Key Points
- Only two of Sociedad’s last nine opponents have scored more than once.
- Only one goal was scored in the first-leg match between Bilbao and Sociedad.
- Bilbao have conceded more than one goal a game once in their last seven outings.
- Four of the last five meetings between Bilbao and Sociedad have seen under 2.5 goals.
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Our Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction
Our prediction for Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao is for less than 2.5 goals. The first-leg meeting between these sides saw just one goal scored as Sociedad took an early lead in this tie.
This has become the norm lately in this Basque derby, with only one of the last five meetings seeing more than two goals being scored. As both teams are strong defensively and are looking to earn passage to the final, another low-scoring outcome could be on the cards.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Real Sociedad Athletic Bilbao
| Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad wins | 2.75 | 2.38 | -13.5% |
| Draw | 2.85 | 3.5 | +22.8% |
| Athletic Bilbao wins | 2.8 | 3.15 | +12.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Real Sociedad is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 13.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 36.4% and is now 42.0% (5.7%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
