Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga
Spain - LaLiga
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by Daniel Ngulu | in LaLiga Predictions
Real Sociedad will be eyeing a home win in the 194th Basque Derby when Athletic Bilbao comes visiting. The hosts start round 11 marginally above the drop zone, while Athletic have dropped to ninth. Read on for our prediction of this match.
Sociedad won four of their nine points in the last two league outings. The latest of them was a 2-1 win against Sevilla.
They will also hope the Copa del Rey 3-0 win at SD Negreira is a sign of better things to come. For the first time, Real Sociedad have gone three straight matches without defeat.
However, they are winless in the last three matches against Athletic Bilbao.
Athletic Bilbao started the season strongly, winning each of their first three league games. However, they went into a lull, failing to win any of the six that followed across Europe and domestic action.
A three-game unbeaten streak was once again halted last time out as they fell 1-0 at home to Getafe. Athletic Bilbao have dominated matches against Real Sociedad in recent times and should come here confident of prevailing.
They’ve won three of their last five matches against Sociedad but none in the last eight at Reale Arena. Athletic’s last four away games ended winless, with three defeats.
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The Best Betting Odds for Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.75 | 2.9 | 2.88 |
|
|
2.75 | 3.1 | 2.75 |
|
|
2.75 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
|
|
2.75 | 2.85 | 2.85 |
|
|
2.7 | 2.75 | 2.88 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Real Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao?
Our prediction for the Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao match is: Real Sociedad wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 01/11/2025 between Real Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 42.2% for a win of Real Sociedad against Athletic Bilbao with odds of 2.84 at 22bet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao is 25.16% with odds of 3.12 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 32.64% chance ⭐ for a win of Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad with odds of 3.05 at Shangrila.
Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao Prediction and Best Odds:
| Real Sociedad Athletic Bilbao Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad wins | 42.2% | 2.84 at 22bet |
| Under 2.5 | 50.08% | 2.1 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 48.33% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Real Sociedad | 21.75% | 6 at Bet365 |
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Form
Real Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
23 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | -8 |
|
16
|
17 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -4 |
Real Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Oct 2025 - Copa del Rey
24 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
5 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
28 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
24 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
5 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
24 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
13 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
24 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Oct 2025 - Copa del Rey
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
28 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
19 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
30 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
16 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
4 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
4 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
23 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
13 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
20 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
31 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
9 Aug 2025 - Emirates Cup
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
17 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
4 May 2025 - LaLiga
24 Nov 2024 - LaLiga
13 Jan 2024 - LaLiga
30 Sept 2023 - LaLiga
15 Apr 2023 - LaLiga
14 Jan 2023 - LaLiga
Real Sociedad against Athletic Bilbao Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Missing players
Y. Herrera
ForwardO. Oskarsson
J. Karrikaburu
Y. Alvarez
U. Egiluz
I. Lekue
MidfielderB. Prados
ForwardI. Williams
M. Sannadi
Most goals and assists
Real Sociedad
Athletic Bilbao
M. Oyarzabal
(5 Goals)
R. Navarro
(4 Goals)
,
G. Guruzeta
(4 Goals)
A. Barrenetxea
(3 Assists)
,
M. Oyarzabal
(3 Assists)
A. Berenguer
(3 Assists)
,
N. Williams
(3 Assists)
Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao Key Points
- Athletic won once in the last seven league games.
- Real Sociedad are unbeaten in their last three matches.
- Athletic Bilbao are winless in four away matches, losing three.
- Real Sociedad have won two of their last three home matches.
- Real Sociedad are unbeaten in eight home games against Bilbao.
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Our Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction
Another Basque Derby is upon us. This one finds both sides struggling but with recent positives to pick from. Athletic Bilbao have dominated recent matches against Real Sociedad and will want to carry on here. However, this dominance is mostly limited to their home matches.
At Sociedad, the hosts dictate the terms and are unbeaten in eight home matches against Bilbao. This match also finds Athletic with only one win in the last seven league games. Our prediction for Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao is that Real Sociedad wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Real Sociedad Athletic Bilbao
| Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad wins | 2.88 | 2.75 | -4.5% |
| Draw | 3 | 2.9 | -3.3% |
| Athletic Bilbao wins | 2.5 | 2.88 | +15.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Real Sociedad is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 4.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 34.7% and is now 36.4% (1.6%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
