Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga
Spain - LaLiga
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by Daniel Ngulu | in LaLiga Predictions
Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid had contrasting outings in Europe and will both target three points as focus shifts to La Liga. A Madrid derby hosted by Rayo, this match finds Real at the league summit, 16 points ahead of Rayo. We have a prediction below.
Rayo’s last meeting with a Madrid giant ended in a 3-2 defeat to Atletico after they let their lead slip. That was on the road and they’ll hope to do better in this one as they host. This week has had mixed results for Rayo.
First, they suffered a 4-0 defeat to Villarreal in La Liga, then in Europe, they beat Lech Poznan 3-2 in the Conference League. With one loss in eight matches, Rayo will be positive heading into this game.
Real Madrid, on their part, were handed only their second loss of the season, falling 1-0 at Liverpool in the Champions League. That loss halted their six-match winning run.
Xabi Alonso will want an immediate return to winning ways, if anything, to maintain their five-point buffer at the top. Having won the last four league matches, Real Madrid will be confident of bagging three points here.
This has been a tough match for them lately, though, winning just twice in the last six meetings. In five of those meetings, both teams scored.
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The Best Betting Odds for Rayo Vallecano v Real Madrid Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.25 | 4.75 | 1.53 |
|
|
6.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 |
|
|
5.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 |
|
|
6.4 | 4.9 | 1.42 |
|
|
5.5 | 4.75 | 1.5 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid?
Our prediction for the Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 09/11/2025 between Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 29.38% for a win of Rayo Vallecano against Real Madrid with odds of 6.68 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid is 21.67% with odds of 4.92 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 48.96% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano with odds of 1.58 at 22bet.
Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Rayo Vallecano Real Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins | 48.96% | 1.58 at 22bet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.28% | 1.72 at 22bet |
| Both Team To Score | 53.75% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Real Madrid | 22.7% | 4.5 at Bet365 |
Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Form
Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
42 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 20 |
|
15
|
18 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | -7 |
Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Nov 2025 - Conference League
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
29 Oct 2025 - Copa del Rey
26 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
23 Oct 2025 - Conference League
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Nov 2025 - Conference League
26 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
2 Oct 2025 - Conference League
28 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
21 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
31 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
29 Oct 2025 - Copa del Rey
23 Oct 2025 - Conference League
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
5 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
24 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
26 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
4 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
26 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
4 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
20 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
23 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
13 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
50 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
9 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
14 Dec 2024 - LaLiga
18 Feb 2024 - LaLiga
5 Nov 2023 - LaLiga
24 May 2023 - LaLiga
7 Nov 2022 - LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano against Real Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Missing players
A. Mumin
L. Felipe
A. Rudiger
D. Carvajal
MidfielderF. Mastantuono
A. Tchouameni
Most goals and assists
Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid
A. Garcia
(5 Goals)
,
J. De Frutos
(5 Goals)
K. Mbappe
(27 Goals)
A. Garcia
(3 Assists)
A. Guler
(7 Assists)
, 
V. Junior
(7 Assists)
Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid Key Points
- Both teams scored in three of Rayo’s last five matches.
- Both teams scored in five of six meetings between these two.
- Rayo failed to score in only one of their last five home games.
- Real Madrid failed to score once in their seven away matches.
- Real Madrid scored in all of their La Liga matches this season.
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Our Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Prediction
This is not the fiercest Madrid derby, but neither of these teams will be quick to relinquish the bragging rights. They’ve both lost to Atletico Madrid this season, and in those games both sides scored. In this fixture too, it is rare not to see goals on both ends.
Only one of the last five meetings between these two ended 0-0. It is also not a match Real Madrid has dominated lately, so Rayo will still come with a fighting chance here. Our prediction for Rayo Vallecano v Real Madrid is BTTS.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Rayo Vallecano Real Madrid
| Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano wins | 8 | 5.25 | -34.4% |
| Draw | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0% |
| Real Madrid wins | 1.36 | 1.53 | +12.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Real Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 12.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 73.5% and is now 65.4% (-8.2%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
