Portugal vs Wales Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
Europe - UEFA Nations League
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by Steve Ashfield | in UEFA Nations League Predictions
Defending champions Portugal get their defense of the UEFA Nations League underway. They kick-off Group A4 with a home match against Wales who didn't play in the recent World Cup and have plenty of injuries at present. Those factors have led us to make a prediction that Portugal will win this game and lead at both half and full time.
Portugal have twice won the Nations League. Their first triumph came in 2018-19 and the Lusitanians won the last tournament by beating Spain in the final. The Spaniards got some revenge by beating Portugal in the last 16 of the recent World Cup.
Wales failed to qualify for those finals, losing in the play-offs. They were in League B the last time this tournament was staged, but managed to win promotion. They have been struggling in recent matches and with several absentees for this game, this is going to be a big struggle. Also in this group are Denmark and Norway.
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Portugal v Wales Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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1.2 | 6.4 | 12 |
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1.24 | 6.52 | 14.4 |
|
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1.21 | 6.35 | 14 |
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1.22 | 6.25 | 13.5 |
|
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1.21 | 6.35 | 14 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Portugal and Wales?
Our prediction for the Portugal vs Wales match is: Portugal wins and leads at half and full time.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 24/09/2026 between Portugal and Wales in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 58.26% for a win of Portugal against Wales with odds of 1.26 at Betsson.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Portugal vs Wales is 23.69% with odds of 6.8 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 18.05% chance ⭐ for a win of Wales vs Portugal with odds of 14.4 at 1xbet.
Portugal vs Wales Form
Portugal and Wales Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
2 Jul 2026 - World Cup
27 Jun 2026 - World Cup
23 Jun 2026 - World Cup
17 Jun 2026 - World Cup
10 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
2 Jul 2026 - World Cup
23 Jun 2026 - World Cup
17 Jun 2026 - World Cup
10 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Jun 2026 - World Cup
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
28 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
6 Sept 2025 - World Cup
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
2 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
18 Nov 2025 - World Cup
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
18 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
9 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
Portugal - Wales: Form Analysis
Portugal have won the Nations League twice and are the defending champions. They had been unbeaten in nine matches before losing 1-0 to eventual champions Spain in the last 16 of this year's World Cup. They have never finished lower than sixth in this competition.
Home form has seen them unbeaten in their last ten home fixtures.
Wales hasn't won a match this year.
Wales didn't make it to the World Cup this year. Their last match was a 2-1 loss away to Romania. That loss made it four matches without a win for the Dragons. Both teams have scored in each of their last five matches. Their last victory was a home win over North Macedonia in November of last year.
Away form has been a struggle for them with their last eight matches only producing victories in Kazakhstan and Liechtenstein.
Two previous matches against Portugal have both ended in defeat. They failed to score in either of those away fixtures.
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Players list
D. Costa
DefenderJ. Cancelo
R. Dias
R. Veiga
N. Mendes
MidfielderJ. Neves
Vitinha
B. Fernandes
ForwardP. Neto
Joao Felix
Cristiano Ronaldo
D. Ward
DefenderJ. Rodon
E. Ampadu
R. Norrington-Davies
N. Williams
MidfielderJ. Sheehan
K. Andrews
ForwardN. Broadhead
K. Moore
B. Johnson
D. James
Substitutes
R. Silva
J. Sa
DefenderD. Dalot
N. Semedo
G. Inacio
T. Araujo
S. Costa
MidfielderR. Neves
B. Silva
M. Nunes
ForwardR. Leao
F. Trincao
G. Ramos
G. Guedes
F. Conceicao
T. King
K. Darlow
DefenderC. Roberts
J. DaSilva
B. Davies
C. Mepham
R. Kpakio
C. Congreve
MidfielderO. Bostock
D. Brooks
J. Colwill
L. Koumas
S. Thomas
ForwardI. Davies
Missing players
H. Wilson
Portugal & Wales Squad Analysis
Jorge Jesus is the new coach in charge of Portugal. One of his big decisions has been whether to keep Cristiano Ronaldo in the squad. He decided that was what he wanted to do and the legendary player continues to be in good form in international football.
Ronaldo has scored a staggering 146 goals in 233 matches for his country. One more goal will mean that he's scored 100 more than any other Portuguese international.
Portugal lost in the last 16 of the World Cup, but there was no disgrace losing to the eventual world champions.
Injuries galore for the Dragons.
Wales have several injury problems ahead of this trip to Portugal. Harry Wilson, Karl Darlow and Nathan Broadhead were all named in the squad but have had to withdraw due to injury. Into the squad have come Charlie Savage, Joe Taylor and David Cornell, none of whom play in the Premier League.
WIth Joe Rodon among four other players absent from the Welsh squad, this is going to be a difficult first group match for them.
Portugal - Wales Key Points
- Portugal are unbeaten in their last ten home games.
- Wales have gone four matches without a win.
- Wales are yet to win a match in 2026.
- Wales failed to qualify for this year's World Cup finals.
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Our Portugal vs Wales Prediction
Portugal has a good chance of making a winning start to the defence of their Nations League title. They have won this tournament on two previous occasions, more than any other nation in its short history. Their home form is impressive and they have never lost to Wales.
The Welsh side have not won a match this year. Their last victory was in November of last year. Wales have traveled to Portugal minus several key players and have gone four games without a win. Our main Portugal v Wales prediction is Portugal wins and leads at half and full time.
Portugal vs Wales Alternative Predictions
Portugal wins
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Portugal vs Wales - FAQs
This first match in the group for Portugal will be played on home soil at the Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon.
BBC One Wales will be showing this game live in the UK and a licence is required to do so. It will also be online on the BBC iPlayer. Over at our Nations League livescore
, there's lots of help for your in-play bets from our live text commentary and updated statistics.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
