Porto vs Arouca Prediction & Betting Tips - Liga Portugal
Portugal - Liga Portugal
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in Liga Portugal Predictions
Porto will be looking to defend its 4-point lead at the top when they host Arouca in Matchday 24 of the Liga Portugal. But with Arouquenses’ recent rise, can Dragões take another easy win as they did in their 4-0 win earlier this season? Let’s get into our Porto vs Arouca match prediction!
For Porto, nothing short of a win here is acceptable after their reality check in recent weeks. Following their run of 18 wins in 19 games, Dragões shockingly fell to Casa Pia on the road (2-1).
That defeat was followed by a 1-1 draw with second-place Sporting CP, whose 19-game unbeaten streak has cut the gap to just four points. Another slip-up could realistically see Porto fumble the title, as Benfica also trails with just seven points.
Porto should be at least confident entering this game, considering they've beaten Arouca eight times in their last ten meetings. But Arouquenses has gotten a taste for victory after winning three of its last four games, with the only loss coming in a tight 3-2 defeat to Casa Pia.
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Porto v Arouca Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.21 | 6.2 | 14 |
|
|
1.21 | 7 | 12 |
|
|
1.21 | 7 | 12 |
|
|
1.19 | 6.25 | 11 |
|
|
1.18 | 6.8 | 13 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Porto and Arouca?
Our prediction for the Porto vs Arouca match is: BTTS - No.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 27/02/2026 between Porto and Arouca in Liga Portugal :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 64.85% for a win of Porto against Arouca with odds of 1.23 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Porto vs Arouca is 16.75% with odds of 7 at Melbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 18.4% chance ⭐ for a win of Arouca vs Porto with odds of 16 at Shangrila.
Porto - Arouca Prediction and Best Odds:
| Porto Arouca Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Porto wins | 64.85% | 1.23 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.32% | 1.93 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score: No | 55.42% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Porto/Porto | 35.02% | 1.73 at Bet365 |
Porto vs Arouca Form
Porto and Arouca's standings in the Liga Portugal
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
88 | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | +48 |
|
8
|
42 | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | -17 |
Porto and Arouca Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
15 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
9 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
2 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
26 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
9 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
26 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
14 Jan 2026 - Taca de Portugal
29 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
2 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
18 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
4 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
22 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
14 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
7 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
31 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
24 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
17 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
7 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
24 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
28 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
14 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
1 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
31 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
17 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
3 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
21 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
7 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
Porto vs Arouca Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
17 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
29 Sept 2025 - Liga Portugal
1 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
29 Sept 2024 - Liga Portugal
12 Feb 2024 - Liga Portugal
3 Sept 2023 - Liga Portugal
8 May 2023 - Liga Portugal
Porto against Arouca Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
J. Costa
DefenderD. Prpic
F. Moura
MidfielderS. Fofana
A. Oliveira
R. Mora
W. Gomes
A. Miranda
T. Moffi
J. Valido
DefenderA. Dante
M. Rocha
J. Silva
B. Popovic
Y. Santiago
B. Duarte
M. Puche Garcia
D. Nandin
Missing players
A. Varela
ForwardS. Aghehowa
T. Esgaio
H. Lee
E. Van Ee
Most goals and assists
Porto
Arouca
S. Aghehowa
(13 Goals)
A. Trezza
(9 Goals)
G. Veiga
(8 Assists)
A. Trezza
(3 Assists)
, 
T. Fukui
(3 Assists)
, 
H. Lee
(3 Assists)
,
J. Fontan
(3 Assists)
, 
T. Esgaio
(3 Assists)
Porto - Arouca Key Points
- Porto has kept the most clean sheets this season (17), only conceding in six of 23 games so far.
- Porto has conceded the fewest goals this season (7), allowing just 0.30 goals per game.
- Porto kept a clean sheet in its 4-0 win over Arouca this season.
- The last three meetings between Porto and Arouca have featured a clean sheet from at least one team.
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Our Porto vs Arouca Prediction
Even with Arouca’s recent scoring form, we're still betting on one team (likely Porto) to keep a clean sheet in this game. Unlike Nacional, Rio Ave, and Vitoria, who allowed three goals each, Dragões is a different beast, especially at home.
Porto's defence has been spectacular all season, conceding just seven goals in 23 games, while keeping 17 clean sheets. Even for Arouca, that's a tall order on the road. Hence, our Porto vs Arouca prediction is BTTS - No.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Porto Arouca
| Porto vs Arouca | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porto wins | 1.18 | 1.23 | +4.2% |
| Draw | 6.6 | 7 | +6.1% |
| Arouca wins | 14 | 16 | +14.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Porto is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 4.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 84.7% and is now 81.3% (-3.4%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Porto vs. Arouca game!
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Try your luck on this year's Liga Portugal! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
