Italy - Serie A
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Serie A Predictions
Parma finally have a win in Serie A and under Carlos Cuesta. The next target is locked on visiting Lecce in Serie A. Three points separate the two in the league standings, and below we have a prediction of the match.
Parma are fresh from a 2-1 win over Torino and have hit five points in as many matches. They were one of the six winners in the round, but most importantly, they’ve opened up a three-point buffer from the relegation zone.
There’s definitely a positive swing around Parma. They have now avoided defeat in the last three matches and, crucially, are unbeaten at home this season. Competitively, only Como have beaten Parma at home in the last 10 outings.
Lecce needed a late rally to snatch a 2-2 draw with Bologna in their last outing. That wasn’t enough to lift them off the bottom of the standings, but at least they avoided a fourth loss of the season.
The two goals conceded, however, now make theirs the joint most porous defence in the league. These aren’t great numbers to take to Parma, especially as the team is still in search of the first win of the season.
The last time Lecce visited Parma, they bagged a 3-1 win and are unbeaten in the last two meetings with their hosts. With four losses in the last five matches, Lecce will struggle to replicate such a run.
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The Best Betting Odds for Parma v Lecce Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.85 | 3.4 | 4.5 |
|
|
1.95 | 3.4 | 4 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.25 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.3 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.86 | 3.45 | 4.2 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Parma and Lecce?
Our prediction for the Parma vs Lecce match is: Parma wins the match.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/10/2025 between Parma and Lecce in Serie A :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 40.35% for a win of Parma against Lecce with odds of 1.95 at Betfred.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Parma vs Lecce is 43.04% with odds of 3.45 at Unibet.
- Our prediction model gives a 16.61% chance ⭐ for a win of Lecce vs Parma with odds of 4.5 at Bet365.
Parma - Lecce Prediction and Best Odds:
| Parma Lecce Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 43.04% | 3.45 at Unibet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.46% | 2.3 at Betway |
| Both Team To Score | 55.42% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Draw/Draw | 19.91% | 4.8 at Unibet |
Parma vs Lecce Form
Parma and Lecce's standings in the Serie A
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
15
|
10 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 |
|
17
|
8 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 |
Parma and Lecce Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Sept 2025 - Serie A
24 Sept 2025 - Coppa Italia
21 Sept 2025 - Serie A
13 Sept 2025 - Serie A
30 Aug 2025 - Serie A
24 Aug 2025 - Serie A
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Sept 2025 - Serie A
24 Sept 2025 - Coppa Italia
30 Aug 2025 - Serie A
17 Aug 2025 - Coppa Italia
1 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
18 May 2025 - Serie A
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Sept 2025 - Serie A
13 Sept 2025 - Serie A
24 Aug 2025 - Serie A
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
31 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Sept 2025 - Serie A
23 Sept 2025 - Coppa Italia
19 Sept 2025 - Serie A
14 Sept 2025 - Serie A
29 Aug 2025 - Serie A
23 Aug 2025 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Sept 2025 - Serie A
19 Sept 2025 - Serie A
29 Aug 2025 - Serie A
15 Aug 2025 - Coppa Italia
3 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
31 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Sept 2025 - Coppa Italia
14 Sept 2025 - Serie A
23 Aug 2025 - Serie A
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
25 May 2025 - Serie A
11 May 2025 - Serie A
Parma vs Lecce Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
31 Jan 2025 - Serie A
21 Sept 2024 - Serie A
1 Nov 2023 - Coppa Italia
19 Mar 2022 - Serie B
7 Nov 2021 - Serie B
15 Aug 2021 - Coppa Italia
Parma against Lecce Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Missing players
L. Valenti
MidfielderJ. Ondrejka
Hernani
B. Cremaschi
ForwardM. Frigan
G. Jean
M. Ignacio
MidfielderF. Marchwinski
H. Rafia
ForwardT. Morente
Most goals and assists
Parma
Lecce
A. Bernabe
(2 Goals)
, 
M. Pellegrino
(2 Goals)
M. Berisha
(2 Goals)
, 
K. N’Dri
(2 Goals)
S. Britschgi
(2 Assists)
, 
A. Benedyczak
(2 Assists)
T. Morente
(1 Assists)
,
A. Sala
(1 Assists)
, 
A. Gallo
(1 Assists)
,
M. Berisha
(1 Assists)
,
R. Sottil
(1 Assists)
, 
D. Melo Veiga
(1 Assists)
Parma - Lecce Key Points
- Lecce are winless in their last six matches in all competitions.
- Lecce suffered back-to-back defeats in their last two away matches.
- Parma lost only once in their last 10 home games in all competitions.
- In their last five matches, Parma only suffered one loss.
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Our Parma vs Lecce Prediction
A draw with Cremonese, advancing in the Coppa Italia, and bagging their first win of the season are all indicators that Parma are coming around. I Crociati had a tough start to the season but have officially left the winless-in-league bandwagon.
They have a home game against the league’s weakest team next, and Carlos Cuesta’s men will be very confident here. Lecce are still in search of their opening league win of the season. A leaking defence is among the factors letting them down; they will struggle here too. Our prediction for Parma v Lecce is that Parma wins the match.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Parma Lecce
| Parma vs Lecce | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma wins | 1.9 | 1.85 | -2.6% |
| Draw | 3.8 | 3.4 | -10.5% |
| Lecce wins | 3.6 | 4.5 | +25.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- A draw is the most likely outcome
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 10.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 26.3% and is now 29.4% (3.1%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Parma vs. Lecce game!
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Try your luck on this year's Serie A! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
