Paris FC vs PSG Prediction & Betting Tips - Ligue 1
France - Ligue 1
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by Nella Wagah | in Ligue 1 Predictions
French Ligue 1 champions PSG look to conclude a successful league season with a derby win away to Paris FC. More than 30 points separate them, but we feel it is the goals market that will define the match. Their last league meeting had three goals, and Paris have scored 3+ in three of their last five outings. Both teams’ attacking strengths lock our prediction.
Paris are now assured of another topflight campaign. Les Bleus returned to Ligue 1 after more than 40 years away and could end up earning a top 10 finish. Paris have racked up 41 points and sit three points behind the 10th spot.
They have won 10 games and drawn a further 11. The hosts, who defeated their city rivals in the French Cup back in January, were beaten 2-1 away to Rennes last weekend.
PSG were in action in midweek, and a 2-0 victory at Lens secured their fifth successive league title. Les Parisiens needed to win that game against their closest challengers to avoid a nervy final day in the derby.
Luis Enrique’s men have 76 points. They have won a league-leading 24 games and only suffered defeat five times. Paris, who won the season’s first Paris derby 2-1 in January, enter the final day unbeaten in seven games.
PSG have the Champions League final coming up at the end of May, so they could likely rest some of their stars.
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Paris FC v PSG Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.9 | 4.7 | 1.61 |
|
|
5 | 4.6 | 1.57 |
|
|
5 | 4.6 | 1.57 |
|
|
4.75 | 4.5 | 1.6 |
|
|
4.7 | 4.4 | 1.59 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Paris FC and PSG?
Our prediction for the Paris FC vs PSG match is: more than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 17/05/2026 between Paris FC and PSG in Ligue 1 :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 27.39% for a win of Paris FC against PSG with odds of 5.23 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Paris FC vs PSG is 12.48% with odds of 4.8 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 60.14% chance ⭐ for a win of PSG vs Paris FC with odds of 1.63 at 888Starz.
Paris FC - PSG Prediction and Best Odds:
| Paris FC PSG Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| PSG wins | 60.14% | 1.63 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.47% | |
| Both Team To Score: No | 62.5% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: PSG/PSG | 31.56% | 2.38 at Bet365 |
Paris FC vs PSG Form
Paris FC and PSG's standings in the Ligue 1
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
76 | 34 | 24 | 4 | 6 | +45 |
|
11
|
44 | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | -3 |
Paris FC and PSG Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Ligue 1
3 May 2026 - Ligue 1
26 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
19 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
10 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
5 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Ligue 1
26 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
10 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Ligue 1
19 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
5 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
15 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 May 2026 - Ligue 1
10 May 2026 - Ligue 1
6 May 2026 - Champions League
2 May 2026 - Ligue 1
28 Apr 2026 - Champions League
25 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Ligue 1
2 May 2026 - Ligue 1
28 Apr 2026 - Champions League
22 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
19 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Apr 2026 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 May 2026 - Ligue 1
6 May 2026 - Champions League
25 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Apr 2026 - Champions League
21 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
Paris FC vs PSG Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
0 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
12 Jan 2026 - French Cup
4 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
16 Dec 2022 - Clubs Friendlies
Paris FC against PSG Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
O. Nkambadio
DefenderT. De Smet
H. Traore
I. Kebbal
M. Cafaro
V. Marchetti
M. Lopez
A. Gory
L. Koleosho
R. Marin
DefenderL. Hernandez
MidfielderL. Kang-in
J. Neves
D. Fernandez
S. Mayulu
D. Doue
I. Mbaye
G. Ramos
Missing players
R. Riou
DefenderS. Alakouch
M. Mbow
N. Sangui
MidfielderJ. Lopez
ForwardC. Immobile
P. Hamel
J. Krasso
L. Chevalier
DefenderA. Hakimi
W. Pacho
N. Mendes
ForwardQ. Ndjantou
Most goals and assists
Paris FC
PSG
I. Kebbal
(9 Goals)
B. Barcola
(11 Goals)
I. Kebbal
(4 Assists)
,
M. Lopez
(4 Assists)
Vitinha
(8 Assists)
Paris FC - PSG Key Points
- Paris netted three or more goals three times in their last five games.
- PSG’s 33 league matches have so far had 100 goals scored.
- On average, 2.8 goals were netted in Paris’ league matches.
- 16 goals were scored in Paris FC’s last five home matches.
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Our Paris FC vs PSG Prediction
Our prediction for Paris FC v PSG is for more than 2.5 goals. This is a derby game, and it falls on the final day of the season. These two capital clubs will therefore seek to put on a show, as only pride is left to play for here.
PSG have already been crowned champions, while Paris are assured of competing in Ligue 1 next season. Both teams have also won against each other in the two meetings so far this season. This fixture offers the opportunity to break the tie. We therefore expect a high-scoring showdown, as both teams are strong attacking sides.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Paris FC PSG
| Paris FC vs PSG | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC wins | 5.87 | 5.23 | -10.9% |
| Draw | 5.56 | 4.8 | -13.7% |
| PSG wins | 1.5 | 1.63 | +8.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- PSG is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 8.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 66.7% and is now 61.3% (-5.3%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
