Paderborn vs Freiburg Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Paderborn’s return to Bundesliga continues on matchday two of the 2026-27 season with a home game against the high-flying Freiburg on Saturday. This match at the Home Deluxe Arena between the 10th-placed Paderborn and the 2nd-placed ‘Breisgau Brazilians’ could throw up an exciting game with our prediction backing over 2.5 goals.
Paderborn’s match was the only game to end goalless on matchday one. Freiburg were one of the runaway leaders, with only Bayern Munich scoring more goals than their four.
A 0-0 away draw at Mainz signalled Paderborn’s return to the Bundesliga. It was a game where they had no shots on target and marked a second draw in the last three matches (W1). The only exception was a 4-2 win in the DFB-Pokal Cup.
Five wins from their last nine home league games (D3, L1) within 90 minutes give some hope for Paderborn to upset Freiburg’s edge.
Freiburg won 4-1 at home against Werder Bremen on matchday one to make it four consecutive wins this season in all competitions. With 16 goals scored in this sequence, although conceding exactly once every time, the visitors look primed to continue their goal hunt.
The visitors haven’t been happy travellers last term, having lost six of their last nine away Bundesliga matches (W2, D1).
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Paderborn v Freiburg Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.75 | 3.90 | 1.97 |
|
|
3.72 | 3.92 | 1.97 |
|
|
3.64 | 3.84 | 1.93 |
|
|
3.74 | 3.76 | 1.92 |
|
|
3.76 | 3.76 | 1.91 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Paderborn and Freiburg?
Our prediction for the Paderborn vs Freiburg match is: over 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/09/2026 between Paderborn and Freiburg in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 48.41% for a win of Paderborn against Freiburg with odds of 3.89 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Paderborn vs Freiburg is 11.8% with odds of 3.95 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 39.79% chance ⭐ for a win of Freiburg vs Paderborn with odds of 1.99 at 888Starz.
Paderborn - Freiburg Prediction and Best Odds:
| Paderborn Freiburg Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Paderborn wins | 48.41% | 3.89 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82.92% | 1.67 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 81.25% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Paderborn | 19.96% | 9.00 at Betsson |
Paderborn vs Freiburg Form
Paderborn and Freiburg's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
13 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +9 |
|
12
|
8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 |
Paderborn and Freiburg Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Aug 2026 - Bundesliga
23 Aug 2026 - DFB Pokal
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
25 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
17 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
11 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
17 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
11 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
25 May 2026 - Bundesliga
8 May 2026 - 2. Bundesliga
26 Apr 2026 - 2. Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Aug 2026 - Bundesliga
23 Aug 2026 - DFB Pokal
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
5 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
21 May 2026 - Bundesliga
17 May 2026 - 2. Bundesliga
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2026 - Bundesliga
27 Aug 2026 - Conference League
23 Aug 2026 - DFB Pokal
20 Aug 2026 - Conference League
15 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2026 - Bundesliga
27 Aug 2026 - Conference League
15 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
20 May 2026 - Europa League
16 May 2026 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Aug 2026 - DFB Pokal
20 Aug 2026 - Conference League
31 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
24 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
10 May 2026 - Bundesliga
30 Apr 2026 - Europa League
Paderborn vs Freiburg Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
1 Nov 2023 - DFB Pokal
Paderborn against Freiburg Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 3 - 2 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
M. Schubert
DefenderJ. Sticker
C. Lippmann
MidfielderN. Mohr
L. Djuric
O. Batista Meier
T. Baack
ForwardS. Marino
S. Tigges
F. Muller
DefenderC. Gunter
M. Rosenfelder
B. Yilmaz
B. Ogbus
L. Kubler
V. Grifo
K. Goto
C. Irie
Missing players
F. Gotze
ForwardT. Gayret
P. Osterhage
Most goals and assists
Paderborn
Freiburg
S. Tigges
(2 Goals)
, 
S. Marino
(2 Goals)
Y. Suzuki
(4 Goals)
L. Curda
(1 Assists)
,
J. Sticker
(1 Assists)
,
S. Tigges
(1 Assists)
,
J. Ter-Horst
(1 Assists)
,
F. Gotze
(1 Assists)
M. Ginter
(3 Assists)
,
D. Scherhant
(3 Assists)
Paderborn - Freiburg Key Points
- Freiburg have seen over 2.5 goals scored in 13 of their last 14 competitive games.
- Seven of Freiburg’s last nine Bundesliga games have also seen three or more goals scored.
- Eight of Freiburg’s last 12 away league games also saw over 2.5 goals scored.
- Seven of Paderborn’s last 11 matches have returned more than two goals.
- Ten of Paderborn’s last 11 home competitive games have seen three or more goals scored.
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Our Paderborn vs Freiburg Prediction
Paderborn celebrated their return to Bundesliga with a 0-0 draw, despite failing to hit a single shot on target. Even their two legs of the relegation play-offs ended in draws, so the home fans may have to wait longer to taste a Bundesliga win. Freiburg are performing consistently and have scored 16 goals in their last four competitive games.
Freiburg are chasing history and a fifth consecutive win in all competitions, which opens up the game for another high-scoring result. That’s why our Paderborn vs Freiburg prediction is over 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Paderborn Freiburg
| Paderborn vs Freiburg | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn wins | 2.97 | 3.89 | +31.0% |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.95 | +16.2% |
| Freiburg wins | 2.50 | 1.99 | -20.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Paderborn is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 31.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 33.7% and is now 25.7% (-8.0%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
