Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
by Joseph King | in Premier League Prediction
With their title hopes dwindling, second-place Arsenal seek a response when they travel north to take on third-place Newcastle for matchday 35 of the English Premier League. The Gunners find themselves trailing league leaders Manchester City by just a single point but could see that gap widen to four points with their title rivals holding a game in hand advantage. Newcastle will be looking to hold on to their third-place spot as they lead fourth-place Manchester United by two points with five matches remaining. Newcastle also hold a six point lead over streaking fifth-place Liverpool as the Magpies attempt to secure entry to the Champions League for the first time in 20 years.
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The oddsmakers have the home side listed as slight favorites with Newcastle coming in at a price of 2.45 to get the three points. Arsenal are the underdogs at odds of 2.63 while the draw comes in at 3.75. Also interesting to note is that Arsenal have odds of 13.0 to win the Premier League title while Newcastle have odds of 1.06 for a top four finish.
Newcastle vs Arsenal Form
Newcastle and Arsenal's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
84 | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 45 |
|
4
|
71 | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 35 |
Newcastle and Arsenal Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Apr 2023 - Premier League
27 Apr 2023 - Premier League
23 Apr 2023 - Premier League
15 Apr 2023 - Premier League
8 Apr 2023 - Premier League
5 Apr 2023 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2023 - Premier League
26 Apr 2023 - Premier League
21 Apr 2023 - Premier League
16 Apr 2023 - Premier League
9 Apr 2023 - Premier League
1 Apr 2023 - Premier League
Newcastle against Arsenal : Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
17 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
3 Jan 2023 - Premier League
16 May 2022 - Premier League
27 Nov 2021 - Premier League
2 May 2021 - Premier League
18 Jan 2021 - Premier League
9 Jan 2021 - FA Cup
Newcastle - Arsenal: Form Analysis
A recent four match winless run culminating in a 3-1 away loss to Manchester City all but ended Arsenal’s hopes of a first league title since the 2003/04 season. Mikel Arteta’s young Arsenal side were, however, able to respond positively in their last outing against London rivals Chelsea, dominating the match to record a 3-1 home victory. The Gunners, who had previously been near faultless away from home, have wobbled somewhat in recent trips as they have now failed to win in their last three away matches. During this time Arsenal have conceded eight goals which accounts for nearly half of the 17 total goals that they have conceded this season in their 17 away matches. They’ve also seen a significant dropoff in their defensive efficiency as the team has conceded in eight straight matches.
Newcastle come into this matchup in a superb vein of form after recording their third consecutive win following a 3-1 home victory over Southampton. The result means that the Magpies have now won eight of their last nine matches and have the oddsmakers laying them as heavy favorites to secure a top four finish. Newcastle have been excellent when playing at St. James’ Park this season, winning 10 of their 16 outings and losing only once. In addition, they’ve seemingly found a new offensive gear in recent matches with 20 of their 61 total league goals coming in the last six matches. Newcastle have scored 13 goals in their last three matches alone, nine of which came on their home pitch.
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Newcastle against Arsenal Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Missing players
N. Pope
DefenderE. Krafth
J. Lascelles
J. Manquillo
MidfielderM. Ritchie
J. Willock
ForwardR. Fraser
Joelinton
T. Tomiyasu
W. Saliba
O. Zinchenko
MidfielderM. Elneny
B. Saka
ForwardL. Trossard
R. Nelson
G. Martinelli
Newcastle & Arsenal Squad Analysis
Arsenal are dearly missing defender William Saliba. There has been a night-and-day difference in their defense without the Frenchman partnering Gabriel at the back and is a large reason as to why they’ve struggled to pick up wins in the last month. To make matters worse, the aforementioned Gabriel was forced off late on in the win over Chelsea although is expected to suit up for this one. Arteta will likely hand Jakub Kiwior another spot in the starting 11 after the young Polish international was highly impressive in his start against Chelsea. The usual suspects are expected to lead the line for the Gunners with Jesus, Martinelli and Saka supported by Odegaard, Xhaka and Partey behind.
For Newcastle boss Eddie Howe, he’ll be without team captain Jamaal Lascelles who is set to miss the rest of the season with a calf injury, and Emil Krafth who is dealing with an ACL injury. The hosts are still sweating the fitness of the electric Allan Saint-Maximin and Sean Longstaff who both appear to be touch-and-go right up until kickoff. Striker Callum Wilson scored two goals off the bench as a second-half substitute against Southampton and will be pushing for a spot in the starting 11 here. However, Howe may opt to keep Wilson in the effective super-sub role and continue with club record signing Alexander Isak as the main striker.
Newcastle - Arsenal Key Points
- Newcastle have won their last four straight at home, outscoring their opponents by a total of 13-3 during that time.
- Arsenal have conceded 12 goals in their last five matches.
- Newcastle have scored in eight of their last nine matches.
- Newcastle have conceded a second best 11 goals at home this season and have kept a clean sheet in eight of their 16 home matches.
- Arsenal have failed to win in their last three away trips, allowing eight goals during that stretch.
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Our Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction
The last match between these two teams finished in a 0-0 stalemate and we certainly wouldn’t fault anyone who were to predict another draw in this one. However, there are reasons to believe that Newcastle hold the edge here given their overall recent form when compared with their opponents. Additionally, the absence of Saliba has been a huge blow to the Arsenal defense and undoubtedly increases Newcastle's chances of getting on the scoresheet. With Newcastle in red-hot goal scoring form and the visitors unable to keep a clean sheet at the moment, we see clear value in backing a home win. Our Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction: Newcastle to win
Newcastle vs Arsenal - Other Interesting Predictions
Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals
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