Metz vs Lille Prediction & Betting Tips - Ligue 1
France - Ligue 1
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Nella Wagah | in Ligue 1 Predictions
The year 2026 is yet to open up for Lille and Metz, and they go head-to-head on Friday seeking the first league win of the year. Metz arrive for the game sitting bottom of the league standings, while visiting Lille are fifth. Let’s have a look at the match prediction.
Metz are coming into this game off the back of a 1-0 loss to Angers. That stretches their winless run to eight, having lost seven. Not even a switch in managers has been able to work for Metz so far.
The new man in charge, Benoit Tavenot, has lost his first two matches in charge. That run means Les Grenats are eight points adrift of safety, but they can rise from the bottom with a win.
Lille haven't lost across their last 10 matches against Metz. Continuing with that run will be top of their agenda, having suffered consecutive defeats in Ligue 1.
Les Dogues are coming into this encounter having lost four straight league games. Lille will argue that these losses were against top sides and this is a much more winnable encounter.
The visitors are coming off a 1-0 loss to Lyon, which was their seventh across the last 10 matches. One of the areas Lille have fallen short in is in the attack. In nine of the last 10 matches, they couldn’t score more than a goal.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Metz v Lille Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.2 | 4.5 | 1.54 |
|
|
6.35 | 4.36 | 1.5 |
|
|
6.05 | 4.26 | 1.53 |
|
|
6.5 | 4.33 | 1.5 |
|
|
6.2 | 4.2 | 1.51 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Metz and Lille?
Our prediction for the Metz vs Lille match is: Lille to win and under 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 06/02/2026 between Metz and Lille in Ligue 1 :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 36.59% for a win of Metz against Lille with odds of 6.63 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Metz vs Lille is 10.32% with odds of 4.7 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 53.09% chance ⭐ for a win of Lille vs Metz with odds of 1.6 at Shangrila.
Metz - Lille Prediction and Best Odds:
| Metz Lille Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lille wins | 53.09% | 1.6 at Shangrila |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.49% | 2 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score: No | 52.92% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Lille/Lille | 25.64% | 2.25 at Bet365 |
Metz vs Lille Form
Metz and Lille's standings in the Ligue 1
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
61 | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | +15 |
|
18
|
17 | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | -44 |
Metz and Lille Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
25 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
18 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
11 Jan 2026 - French Cup
4 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
20 Dec 2025 - French Cup
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
11 Jan 2026 - French Cup
13 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
28 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
18 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
20 Dec 2025 - French Cup
7 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
23 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
25 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
16 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
11 Jan 2026 - French Cup
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
25 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
11 Jan 2026 - French Cup
3 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
5 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
27 Nov 2025 - Europa League
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
16 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
20 Dec 2025 - French Cup
14 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
11 Dec 2025 - Europa League
Metz vs Lille Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
33 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
26 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
28 Apr 2024 - Ligue 1
3 Dec 2023 - Ligue 1
18 Feb 2022 - Ligue 1
8 Aug 2021 - Ligue 1
9 Apr 2021 - Ligue 1
Metz against Lille Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
O. Ba
DefenderT. Yegbe
M. Colin
B. Sarr
MidfielderG. Abuashvili
B. Munongo
N. Mbala
G. Hein
G. Kvilitaia
A. Bodart
DefenderN. Ngoy
C. Mbemba
C. Verdonk
G. Perrin
N. Mukau
A. Gomes
ForwardS. Diaoune
F. Correia
Missing players
P. Sy
MidfielderJ. Gbamin
ForwardJ. Mangondo
M. Caillard
DefenderT. Meunier
O. Toure
R. Fernandes
MidfielderN. Bentaleb
O. Sahraoui
E. Mbappe
ForwardH. Igamane
Most goals and assists
Metz
Lille
G. Hein
(8 Goals)
H. Haraldsson
(8 Goals)
, 
M. Fernandez
(8 Goals)
G. Hein
(5 Assists)
F. Correia
(5 Assists)
,
M. Fernandez
(5 Assists)
Metz - Lille Key Points
- Lille have failed to score more than a goal in nine of their last 10 matches.
- Half of Lille’s last 10 outings ended with under 2.5 goals.
- Metz are averaging one goal per game in Ligue 1.
- Metz are coming off four straight home losses.
- Lille won each of the last three meetings with Metz.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Metz vs Lille Prediction
Metz haven't had the best of times after returning to Ligue 1. After 20 matches they have managed just three wins, and those came in back-to-back outings between October and November. In recent times, their only win was in the French Cup. Apart from struggling to win, they haven't been scoring a lot.
Lille scored six times in their first meeting of the season with Metz but have lately been finding it tough in attack. Still, the visitors will come into this game as favorites. Our prediction for Metz v Lille is for Lille to win and under 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Metz Lille
| Metz vs Lille | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metz wins | 5.47 | 6.63 | +21.2% |
| Draw | 4.63 | 4.7 | +1.5% |
| Lille wins | 1.62 | 1.6 | -1.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Lille is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 1.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 61.7% and is now 62.5% (0.8%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
