Matteo Arnaldi vs Aleksandr Shevchenko Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Miami
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Miami Predictions
Matteo Arnaldi looks to win his first ATP Tour main draw match of the year. He faces fellow unseeded player Alexander Shevchenko in round one of the outdoor hard court Miami Open. Read our match prediction below.
It's not been a great year for Arnaldi who is currently 102nd in the live rankings. His first tournament of 2026 was in Brisbane where he won his first qualifying round match against Hugo Gaston.
He then had to withdraw from his second round match due to an ankle injury. After a first round loss in the Australian Open, Arnaldi didn't play again until Indian Wells. He lost to Mackenzie McDonald in the first round, winning just one game.
He leads Shevchenko 2-0 in previous meetings. Both were played on the Challenger Tour on this surface.
Alexander Shevchenko is 77th in the live rankings and is 7-7 on outdoor hard courts this year. His best run came in Adelaide where he reached the quarter-finals. He also made it to that stage in the Pau Challenger Tour event.
At Indian Wells, he was beaten by Casper Ruud in round two. Eight of his last nine matches have included at least one tie-break so a side bet on that could well win. Overall, we tip him to beat Arnaldi.
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Matteo Arnaldi v Aleksandr Shevchenko Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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2.12 | 1.73 |
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2.12 | 1.73 |
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2.1 | 1.73 |
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2.08 | 1.69 |
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2.08 | 1.69 |
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Who will win the Matteo Arnaldi vs Aleksandr Shevchenko Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Matteo Arnaldi vs Aleksandr Shevchenko match is: Alexander Shevchenko wins.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Matteo Arnaldi vs Aleksandr Shevchenko game on 20/03/2026 of the current ATP Miami season:
- Matteo Arnaldi has a 48.17% chance to win against Aleksandr Shevchenko according to Melbet ⭐ with the odds of 2.12.
- Aleksandr Shevchenko has a 51.83% probability of winning facing Matteo Arnaldi ⭐ with odds of 1.75 at Shangrila.
Matteo Arnaldi vs Aleksandr Shevchenko Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Matteo Arnaldi has a 48.17 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Matteo Arnaldi | 48.17 % |
| Aleksandr Shevchenko | 51.83 % |
Matteo Arnaldi vs Aleksandr Shevchenko Form
Matteo Arnaldi and Aleksandr Shevchenko Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
5 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
18 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
3 Jan 2026 - Brisbane International
25 Oct 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters
23 Oct 2025 - ATP Vienna
20 Oct 2025 - ATP Vienna
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
7 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
5 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
24 Feb 2026 - ATP Dubai Open
22 Feb 2026 - ATP Dubai Open
21 Feb 2026 - ATP Dubai Open
21 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
Matteo Arnaldi - Aleksandr Shevchenko Key Points
- Shevchenko is 25 places ahead of Arnaldi in the live rankings.
- Shevchenko has reached one ATP Tour outdoor hard court quarter-final this year.
- Due to injury, Arnaldi has only played three matches this year, losing two of them.
- Arnaldi only won one game in his last match.
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Our Matteo Arnaldi vs Aleksandr Shevchenko Prediction
Matteo Arnaldi has won his two previous matches against Alexander Shevchenko in straight sets. This is their first match in three years and the winner will face eighth-seed Ben Shelton in round two. Arnaldi is playing only his fourth match of the year with just one victory.
Only one game was won by him in his last match. Shevchenko has been more consistent this year and has reached one quarter-final. Our Matteo Arnaldi v Alexander Shevchenko prediction is Alexander Shevchenko wins.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
