Marseille vs Nice Prediction & Betting Tips - Ligue 1
France - Ligue 1
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by Nella Wagah | in Ligue 1 Predictions
Marseille hosts Nice in the next installment of the Mediterranean Derby, the two sides sitting on opposite ends of the Ligue 1 standings. The top three race is proving elusive for Marseille, who start this round sixth, while Nice are just above the relegation zone. Let’s have a look at the match prediction.
Marseille’s Champions League ambitions suffered yet another blow after they fell 2-0 at Lorient. Les Phoceens have now lost three times in the last four league games, a marker of their inconsistent campaign.
Fortunately for the hosts, they are just two points below the automatic UCL qualification spot. Returning home is a boost, Marseille having won 10 of their 15 league matches there. They’ve only lost twice at home, making them the third best-performing hosts.
Nice to have had an inconsistent campaign. Theirs has been worse than Marseille's, and they find themselves in the relegation dogfight with four games to go.
They’ve, however, done well in the French Cup and will be in the final, but that would count for little if they fail in Ligue 1. A 0-0 draw with Lille last time out showed they can still mix it up with the big boys, and Les Aiglons will hope to bring their best game here.
They followed up that draw with a 2-0 win against Strasbourg in the French Cup. Among the concerns Nive have to overcome is a poor away record, having won just three league games on the road.
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Marseille v Nice Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.56 | 4.6 | 5.4 |
|
|
1.53 | 4.6 | 5.45 |
|
|
1.53 | 4.6 | 5.45 |
|
|
1.55 | 4.2 | 5.75 |
|
|
1.53 | 4.5 | 5.4 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Marseille and Nice?
Our prediction for the Marseille vs Nice match is: Marseille wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 26/04/2026 between Marseille and Nice in Ligue 1 :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 46.53% for a win of Marseille against Nice with odds of 1.59 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Marseille vs Nice is 27.82% with odds of 4.78 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 25.65% chance ⭐ for a win of Nice vs Marseille with odds of 5.75 at Bet365.
Marseille - Nice Prediction and Best Odds:
| Marseille Nice Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille wins | 46.53% | 1.59 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.97% | |
| Both Team To Score: No | 53.33% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Marseille/Marseille | 20.96% | 2.3 at Bet365 |
Marseille vs Nice Form
Marseille and Nice's standings in the Ligue 1
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5
|
59 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | +18 |
|
16
|
32 | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | -23 |
Marseille and Nice Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
10 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
5 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
13 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
7 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
13 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Mar 2026 - French Cup
1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
5 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
7 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
20 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
31 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Apr 2026 - French Cup
18 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
12 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Feb 2026 - French Cup
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Apr 2026 - French Cup
18 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Mar 2026 - French Cup
1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
Marseille vs Nice Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
17 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
21 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
26 Jan 2025 - Ligue 1
14 Sept 2024 - Ligue 1
24 Apr 2024 - Ligue 1
21 Oct 2023 - Ligue 1
5 Feb 2023 - Ligue 1
Marseille against Nice Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 3 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 2 - 4 - 1
Substitutes
J. De Lange
DefenderH. Hamzaoui Slimani
MidfielderH. Abdelli
T. Mmadi
N. Kamissoko
M. Greenwood
E. Nwaneri
A. Lago
U. El Kadmiri
M. Dupe
DefenderDante
A. Abdi
C. Vanhoutte
T. Louchet
K. Boudache
D. Coulibaly
ForwardS. Diop
Kevin Carlos
Missing players
N. Aguerd
C. Egan-Riley
MidfielderG. Kondogbia
B. Nadir
ForwardA. Gouiri
I. Paixao
M. Abdelmonem
M. Bombito
MidfielderY. Ndayishimiye
Everton
Most goals and assists
Marseille
Nice
M. Greenwood
(16 Goals)
S. Diop
(8 Goals)
M. Greenwood
(8 Assists)
J. Clauss
(5 Assists)
Marseille - Nice Key Points
- Nice are winless in four league matches, losing twice.
- Marseille won 10 points in their latest five home games.
- Marseille have won 10 of their 15 home league matches.
- Nice have suffered 10 defeats in 15 home league matches.
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Our Marseille vs Nice Prediction
There are many things Marseille have gotten wrong this season, but playing at home, their faults haven’t been pronounced. That is why 33 of their total 52 points this season have come at home. They will hope for another lift in this game, which they won 5-1 in the reverse meeting back in November.
Three times in the last home matches against Nice, Marseille won. Nice will want to up their game here, as their four-point buffer above the relegation playoff place isn’t really secure. Our prediction for Marseille v Nice is that Marseille wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Marseille Nice
| Marseille vs Nice | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille wins | 1.54 | 1.59 | +3.2% |
| Draw | 4.98 | 4.78 | -4.0% |
| Nice wins | 5.99 | 5.75 | -4.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Marseille is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 3.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 64.9% and is now 62.9% (-2.0%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
