Marseille vs Nantes Prediction & Betting Tips - Ligue 1
France - Ligue 1
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by Nella Wagah | in Ligue 1 Predictions
Title contenders Marseille will open their 2026 charge with a home match against Nantes in Ligue 1. Going into matchday 17, Les Phoceens are five points behind the league leaders, while Nantes are four points below safety. Let’s have a look at the match prediction.
The year 2025 ended well for Marseille, who trounced Bourg-en-Bresse 6-0 in Coupe de France. It was their third straight win, and having impressed at home, Marseille are gunning for a fourth.
Another positive as they go into the new year is their back-to-back clean sheets. At home in the league this season, Roberto De Zerbi’s charges are unbeaten this season.
While Marseille hopes to carry their form from last season, Nantes will be keen on a change in fortunes. They start 2026 stuck in the relegation region, having managed just two wins from the opening 16 league games.
They wrapped up their league activities on a losing note, after falling 4-1 to Angers. A 5-3 win at Concarneau in the French Cup was some consolation, but their defensive frailty still stood out.
Nantes have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last four matches as well as in four of their last five meetings with Marseille. In the league away from home, Les Canaris have only posted one win in eight.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Marseille v Nantes Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.28 | 6.6 | 11 |
|
|
1.25 | 6 | 11.5 |
|
|
1.24 | 6.55 | 10.5 |
|
|
1.25 | 6.25 | 9.5 |
|
|
1.25 | 6.2 | 10 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Marseille and Nantes?
Our prediction for the Marseille vs Nantes match is: Marseille wins and over 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/01/2026 between Marseille and Nantes in Ligue 1 :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 55.37% for a win of Marseille against Nantes with odds of 1.28 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Marseille vs Nantes is 26.52% with odds of 6.6 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 18.12% chance ⭐ for a win of Nantes vs Marseille with odds of 13.7 at 888Starz.
Marseille - Nantes Prediction and Best Odds:
| Marseille Nantes Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille wins | 55.37% | 1.28 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.73% | |
| Both Team To Score | 55% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Marseille | 20.86% | 4.1 at LSbet |
Marseille vs Nantes Form
Marseille and Nantes's standings in the Ligue 1
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5
|
59 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | +18 |
|
17
|
23 | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | -23 |
Marseille and Nantes Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Dec 2025 - French Cup
14 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
5 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
8 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
29 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Dec 2025 - French Cup
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
5 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
21 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
1 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
25 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Dec 2025 - French Cup
12 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
6 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
30 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
23 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
8 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
23 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
2 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
19 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
20 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Dec 2025 - French Cup
12 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
30 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
8 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
24 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
4 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
Marseille vs Nantes Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
83 %
17 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
2 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
3 Nov 2024 - Ligue 1
10 Mar 2024 - Ligue 1
1 Sept 2023 - Ligue 1
1 Feb 2023 - Ligue 1
20 Aug 2022 - Ligue 1
Marseille against Nantes Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
J. De Lange
DefenderA. Murillo
B. Nadir
M. O'Riley
H. Traore
G. Kondogbia
D. Bakola
ForwardA. Gouiri
R. Vaz
P. Carlgren
DefenderS. Doucoure
U. Radakovic
MidfielderB. Guirassy
L. Leroux
B. Deuff
R. Cabella
J. Lepenant
D. Broulaye Kone
Missing players
N. Aguerd
C. Awaziem
ForwardM. Mohamed
I. Ganago
Most goals and assists
Marseille
Nantes
M. Greenwood
(16 Goals)
M. Abline
(6 Goals)
M. Greenwood
(8 Assists)
M. Abline
(3 Assists)
Marseille - Nantes Key Points
- Nantes are conceding 1.8 goals per match and scoring 0.9 on average.
- Marseille scored 2.6 goals on average in their last five matches.
- Marseille are unbeaten in Ligue 1 at home, winning six of eight.
- Nantes have lost nine times in their 16 league matches so far.
- Each of Nantes’ last four matches had over 2.5 goals.
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Our Marseille vs Nantes Prediction
Nantes have been among the poorest-performing teams in Ligue 1 this season. That run could go on if their recent results are anything to go by. A run of seven winless outings in the league (five losses) are keeping them in the bottom three.
Those losses were, by and large, occasioned by a porous defence. Marseille, who have one of the best attacks in the league, will be happy to take on this particular opponent at home, where they are unbeaten in Ligue 1. Our prediction for Marseille v Nantes is: Marseille wins and over 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Marseille Nantes
| Marseille vs Nantes | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille wins | 1.24 | 1.28 | +3.2% |
| Draw | 6.4 | 6.6 | +3.1% |
| Nantes wins | 13 | 13.7 | +5.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Marseille is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 3.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 80.6% and is now 78.1% (-2.5%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
