Marseille vs Lyon Prediction & Betting Tips - Ligue 1
France - Ligue 1
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by Nella Wagah | in Ligue 1 Predictions
Olympique Marseille will play host to Olympique Lyon in their next assignment in Ligue 1. Les Phoceens, fourth in the league, look to win in the league for the first time in five matches. Meanwhile, third-placed Lyon are eyeing an immediate return to winning ways after last week’s shocker. Let’s have a look at the prediction for this match.
Marseille have in recent days seen their fortunes dwindle, and there is a threat of their season unraveling. While a lot seemed to be going their way in January, elimination from Europe was swiftly followed by Roberto De Zerbi’s departure. Nothing much has improved, the team coming off a loss to Brest.
Lyon will not get a better chance to bounce back themselves. They suffered only their first defeat in 14 matches last time out, and emotions are surely high as they seek an immediate response. Lyon won the reverse fixture in August and will be eyeing a double here.
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Marseille v Lyon Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.99 | 3.75 | 3.7 |
|
|
1.93 | 3.7 | 3.76 |
|
|
1.93 | 3.7 | 3.76 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
|
|
1.93 | 3.65 | 3.65 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Marseille and Lyon?
Our prediction for the Marseille vs Lyon match is: Marseille wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 01/03/2026 between Marseille and Lyon in Ligue 1 :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 35.9% for a win of Marseille against Lyon with odds of 2.01 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Marseille vs Lyon is 11.79% with odds of 3.84 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 52.31% chance ⭐ for a win of Lyon vs Marseille with odds of 3.88 at 888Starz.
Marseille - Lyon Prediction and Best Odds:
| Marseille Lyon Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon wins | 52.31% | 3.88 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.88% | 1.98 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score: No | 55.42% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Lyon/Lyon | 22.53% | 6 at Bet365 |
Marseille vs Lyon Form
Marseille and Lyon's standings in the Ligue 1
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
60 | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | +13 |
|
5
|
59 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | +18 |
Marseille and Lyon Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
3 Feb 2026 - French Cup
31 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
3 Feb 2026 - French Cup
24 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
4 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
31 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
13 Jan 2026 - French Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
15 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
7 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Feb 2026 - French Cup
1 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Feb 2026 - French Cup
1 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
18 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Dec 2025 - French Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
7 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
25 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
11 Jan 2026 - French Cup
3 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
Marseille vs Lyon Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
0 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
31 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
2 Feb 2025 - Ligue 1
22 Sept 2024 - Ligue 1
4 Feb 2024 - Ligue 1
6 Dec 2023 - Ligue 1
23 Apr 2023 - Ligue 1
Marseille - Lyon: Form Analysis
Habib Beye started his Marseille reign on a low, seeing his team beaten 2-0 at Brest. Now on a three-game winless run, the manager must find the right encouragement for his boys. Playing at home should offer some of that, as they are unbeaten in the last three home games, winning twice.
Marseille have failed to win in four straight Ligue 1 matches, which represents their longest winless streak in two years. They are now down to fourth, trailing their visitors by five points and seeing their title hopes get dimmer by the day. Even their home form hasn’t offered much comfort lately, with Marseille failing to win in three of the last five there.
Marseille won each of their last three home games against Lyon.
Lyon were also brought down in their last game. Les Gones recorded a 3-1 defeat at the hands of Strasbourg, suffering their first defeat in 14 matches. Prior to that, they had gone on an impressive run of 13 straight wins in all competitions. In that run, they had five away wins.
While they will look at themselves as title contenders, trailing PSG by nine points means they are better off focusing on the top three. With the first three teams securing automatic UCL spots, this is a crucial game, and Lyon are targeting opening an eight-point gap.
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Marseille against Lyon Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 1 - 4 - 1
Formation : 4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Substitutes
J. De Lange
DefenderC. Egan Riley
B. Pavard
F. Medina
MidfielderH. Abdelli
A. Vermeeren
N. Tocukvu
I. Paixao
E. Nwaneri
R. Descamps
DefenderH. Hateboer
Abner
N. Kamara
MidfielderA. Karabec
M. De Carvalho
R. Ghezzal
K. Merah
ForwardR. Himbert
Missing players
O. Mangala
ForwardP. Sulc
E. Nuamah
M. Fofana
Marseille & Lyon Squad Analysis
This should be a big game for Algerian forward Amine Gouiri. He is fit, and if selected, it will be his 10th appearance against Lyon. He has scored four and laid on three assists in his previous nine matches against Lyon.
Marseille, who are really in need of a bounce back, have a boost in the availability of all players. Arsenal loanee Ethan Nwaneri has work to do to convince the new manager, having failed to back up his glittering debut when he scored against Lens. The Englishman has picked up two yellow cards in the subsequent four appearances.
Brazilian Endrick has scored five goals since his arrival from Real Madrid.
Meanwhile, another loanee at Lyon is having a fantastic time – Endrick, a January acquisition from Real Madrid. The Brazilian youngster has had a direct contribution to seven goals, scoring five times and assisting twice.
Stars align well for Endrick, as four of his G/A have come in away matches. Lyon will in this game miss Hans Hateboer and Pavel Sulc, who join Malick Fofana, Afonso Moreira, and Ernest Nuamah in the treatment room.
Most goals and assists
Marseille
Lyon
M. Greenwood
(16 Goals)
C. Tolisso
(11 Goals)
, 
P. Sulc
(11 Goals)
M. Greenwood
(8 Assists)
A. Moreira
(7 Assists)
, 
Endrick
(7 Assists)
Marseille - Lyon Key Points
- Lyon lost each of their last three away games against Marseille.
- Lyon are winless in seven of their 12 away league games this season.
- Marseille are unbeaten in their last three home games, winning twice.
- Marseille only lost once in 11 home league games, winning seven times.
- Lyon are coming off an away loss in Ligue 1.
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Our Marseille vs Lyon Prediction
Back-to-back away matches in Ligue 1 might deny Lyon the chance to bounce back immediately after their loss to Strasbourg. The visitors had gone on an incredible 13-match winning run before last week’s shocker. This might get even tougher as they travel to a venue they have suffered straight defeats in the last three.
Marseille, who are also coming from a loss, will feel this is their chance to close in after a recent poor run. They have only lost once at home this season in the league, winning seven of 11. Based on that, our prediction for Marseille v Lyon is that Marseille wins.
Marseille vs Lyon Alternative Predictions
Over 2.5 goals
Four of Marseille’s last five outings produced over 2.5 goals. In those five matches, Marseille failed to score twice, which is a rarity. Among them was a 5-0 defeat to PSG. Lyon are bringing into this game an impressive scoring run, only failing to hit the target once in 15 matches.
Eight of the 15 games hit 3+ goals, and we have reason to believe the same will happen here. So our second prediction is for more than 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Marseille Lyon
| Marseille vs Lyon | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille wins | 1.97 | 2.01 | +2.0% |
| Draw | 3.88 | 3.84 | -1.0% |
| Lyon wins | 3.99 | 3.88 | -2.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Lyon is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 2.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 25.1% and is now 25.8% (0.7%)
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Marseille vs Lyon - FAQs
The Marseille v Lyon match will be played on Sunday, 29th February.
The Marseille v Lyon match will be played at Stade Velodrome, in Marseille, France.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
